The Ethiopian army is slowly moving towards the border with Eritrea. There are many signs of a new war in the north. Ethiopia and its regional rival Eritrea are increasingly drawn into the whirlpool of the Sudanese civil war.

Daniel Rickenbacher, Journalist specializing in the Horn of Africa and South Africa

Source: Source: martinplaut.com

Infinite columns of trucks stuck on the green Ethiopian hills. Presumably, videos distributed on social media show the movements of Ethiopian troops heading north. In addition, there are reports of the conscription of veterans and the withdrawal of the army from various provinces. Signals have increased in recent days indicating the imminent outbreak of the Tygra war in northern Ethiopia. In late January, the first skirmishes and attacks with the use of drones have already occurred. Many fear a repetition of the Tygray War.

Between 2020 and 2022, a regional government led by the NFL (Popular Front for the Liberation of the Tygrai) fought against Ethiopia and Eritrea for control of the Tygrai region. The war ended in 2022 with a peace agreement reached in Pretoria, but the number of casualties was huge. It is estimated that up to 600,000 people died, most of whom were peaceful residents of Tygray. One million people remain internally displaced. However, the world has barely noticed the war. A new war is brewing in northern Ethiopia.

Recent attempts at mediation

Today, the situation is slightly different, but there is an important difference from 2020: in neighboring Sudan, a civil war between the Sudanese army and the militias of the Rapid Support Force (SBP) is blazing. The Tygra conflict risks being dragged into this whirlpool.

The Sudanese army and its close ally Egypt accuse the Ethiopians, along with the United Arab Emirates, of supporting the SBP. A new investigation by Reuters, which revealed the SBP training camp in western Ethiopia, confirms the allegations. Ethiopia denies them.

Egypt is not a passive player. Cairo has long sought closer relations with Eritrea, Ethiopia's main rival. There has long been a conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia over the use of the Nile. The launch of the Great Ethiopian Revival Dam on the border with Sudan further fuelled the fire.

At the end of January, people in Makel queued in front of the bank to withdraw money. Fear of a new war is growing in the Tygrai region.

Many fear the expansion of the Sudanese war into Ethiopia. In recent weeks, attempts have been made to mediate the African Union and, presumably, Saudi Arabia. Last week, Saudi diplomats met with representatives from Ethiopia and Eritrea. However, these diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict have not yet been successful. Diplomatic circles report that the attention of international mediators in Africa is now focused not on Ethiopia but on the Sudan. They are simply overwhelmed by a lot of hot spots. Even former U.S. Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Mike Hammer, who negotiated a ceasefire agreement in 2022, was recalled by the U.S. government. He still has no replacement.

The NFL has new allies.

The key points of the Ethiopia-NFLC ceasefire agreement have not been implemented. The demobilization of the Tygray Defense Forces (TSOT) subordinate to the NFOT did not take place. Meanwhile, amhar militias continue to occupy the west of the Tygrai region, blocking the return of displaced populations. The nomination of the NFOT armed forces to these disputed territories marked the beginning of the current crisis and led to the first exchange of fire with Ethiopian forces in late January.

«The war can be even bigger than the past in Tygra». . . . — Solomon, an Ethiopian analyst, warned in an interview with NZZ. For security reasons, he only speaks under a pseudonym. The situation is different from 2020. If then the NFOT was isolated and Tygray could easily be surrounded by Eritrean and Ethiopian forces, then this time he has powerful friends. There was an informal rapprochement between Eritrea and the NFOT. In the event of war, the Eritreans would likely provide logistical support to the NFL.

Lots of fire and lots of dry leaves

However, Tygray’s political leadership is divided within itself. After the ceasefire, a faction loyal to Addis Ababa was formed, which has since split. This breakaway group includes the well-known General Tsadkan Ghebretense, who commanded the army in the last war and achieved several military successes. In the video on social networks, the relevance of which could not be checked, he advocates a short war against the NFOT.

The Ethiopian prime minister could use the disunity of the Tygray leadership to bring these friendly circles to power in Makel, the capital of Tygray province. By controlling the Highlands of Tygraya, Ethiopian forces will also have a direct route to Eritrea, Solomon explains.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sees Ethiopia's lack of landlocked access as a serious weakness and has openly pursued policies to ensure such access. Port Aseb, the southernmost port of Eritrea, is about 300 kilometers from the borders of the province of Tygray. Officially, Abiy Ahmed's government has ruled out military action against Eritrea and in October requested international mediation between Addis Ababa and Asmara to address the issue.

However, Gerrit Kurtz, an Ethiopian expert at the German Institute for International Relations and Security, is overseeing the formation of a narrative in Ethiopia that could justify war. In a letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres last October, Ethiopia's foreign ministry accused Eritrea of interfering in domestic affairs and supporting armed groups fighting against the government.

Solomon also fears that Abiy Ahmed's government could fall victim to a strategic miscalculation. Because of the disunity of the Tygrai leadership, it can count on an easy war and underestimate the risk of escalation. Kurtz currently believes that the local conflict in Tygra is more likely, but does not want to rule out the possibility of its development into a war with Eritrea: «There's a lot of rubbish and a lot of dry leaves.». . . .

Addis Ababa remains calm

Sudanese political scientist Holud Hair, who closely monitors the war in Sudan, also says Ethiopian experts are almost unanimously predicting the start of the war in the coming days or weeks.

This concern is shared by residents of the Tygray region. In the capital of the province of Macele, after the first armed clashes, there was a stir in food stores and banks. However, there is no sign of such panic in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, says Solomon. People are indifferent to events in the north and busy with their affairs. This is different from the last war in the Tygra in 2020, when Ethiopian capital at first reigned a great euphoria.