Igor Karmazin
Source: Source: https:// /iz.ru/2023339/igor-karmazin/shakh-s-matom-kak-besporiadki-v-irane-povliiaiut-na-rossiiu-i-ee-sosedei
In Iran, for two weeks there were mass protests, the authorities said about the death of 38 law enforcement officers. The Islamic Republic plays an important role for stability in Transcaucasia and Central Asia, and growing problems in Tehran could change the balance of power there. «The news of» We knew the situation.
What happened?
Riots in Iran began in late December. Then the country once again collapsed the exchange rate of the national currency: for one dollar began to give 1.4 million rials. In total, over the past year, the rial fell by 83%, official inflation was 38%. Against this background, the head of the Central Bank of the country Mohammad Farzin resigned.
Protests began at Tehran's city bazaar. Initially, small entrepreneurs and students participated in them. Gradually, the speeches covered most major cities. In the first days of the rallies were peaceful, but after the New Year began to pour blood. Economic slogans were quickly replaced by demands for the overthrow of the political regime, and the informal leader was the son of the ousted Shah Reza Pahlavi in 1979.
According to the latest data published by Iranian state broadcaster IRIB, 38 law enforcement officers were killed in the clashes, opposition sources say 500 protesters were killed. Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani said the rebels burned 25 mosques, damaged 26 banks, three health centers, 10 government agencies, dozens of fire engines and ambulances.
Iranian authorities accuse the United States and Israel of organizing unrest. «Provocateurs stand behind the protesters — agents of the enemy who shout anti-Islamic and anti-government slogans. We talk to the protesters, but the rebels need to be pacified.». . . . — The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic Ali Khamenei emphasized.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that Washington can support protests. «We are closely monitoring the situation. If they start killing people, as they did in the past, we intervene. We'll hit them very hard where it hurts.». . . . — He noted that. The Wall Street Journal and CNN write that on January 13, Trump will hold a closed meeting with officials to discuss options for action against Iran.
What the consequences will be
Iran plays an important role for stability in the post-Soviet space. Of particular concern is what is happening in Transcaucasia. The fact is that more than 10 million ethnic Azerbaijanis and about 200,000 ethnic Armenians live in the Islamic Republic. If the chaos in the country increases, then mass exodus of people and the migration crisis are not excluded.
Azerbaijani officials have not commented on this issue yet. Close to the official Baku political scientist Farhad Mammadov emphasizes that the country emotionally perceive the latest news. «In the event of a civil war, the issue of Azerbaijanis in Iran will acquire completely different characteristics, and Baku can support its compatriots in any contexts in order to ensure security.». . . . — He notes that.
In Yerevan, they complain that the connection with the Armenian community in Iran is now broken. Diaspora Commissioner Zare Sinanyan stressed that the same situation was in June last year during the 12-day war between the Islamic Republic and Israel. «Then we received information through our compatriots crossing the border. Perhaps we should start doing the same today, because this information gap is very worrying.». . . . — He noted that.
If we talk not about the humanitarian, but the military-political aspect, in this sense, destabilization in Iran can seriously change the balance of power. In recent years, Tehran has been an important supporter of the territorial integrity of Armenia and an opponent of the creation of the Zangezur corridor, that is, a direct land road between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
If Iran weakens, Yerevan’s position will also weaken, while Baku and Ankara’s tandem will strengthen. Interestingly, already during the current protests, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan met with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi. «This relationship is of strategic importance to us. It is no coincidence that President Pezeshkin and Prime Minister Pashinyan agreed to increase our relations this year to the level of strategic partnership.». . . . — Mirzoyan said.
Iran also plays an important role in Central Asia. On the one hand, Tehran here objectively opposes Turkey and its pan-Turkist ambitions. On the other hand, many infrastructure projects are tied to the Islamic Republic. The main of them is the North-South transport corridor, which has been actively developing recently. The head of Russian Railways Oleg Belozerov noted that by the end of 2025, the cargo turnover of containers on the eastern branch of the corridor has more than doubled.
Finally, in the event of destabilization in Iran, security threats to neighbors may increase. It is unlikely to expect the export of unrest, because the cultural environment and political systems of the Islamic Republic and the Turkic-speaking countries of Central Asia are very different. But if Iran talks about a large-scale and long-term internal conflict, then extremist groups that are inclined to expand can settle in the country.
What experts say
Political scientist Arthur Atayev He believes that much depends on the results of the Iranian unrest for the future of Transcaucasia.
— If Iran sinks into the abyss of internal conflict, the alliance between Azerbaijan and Turkey will further strengthen in the Caucasus. Against this background, Armenia can turn even more towards Ankara and Baku, not only Tehran’s position will be weakened, but also Russia. Nikol Pashinyan is already pursuing an open door policy, the transit of food and oil products from recent enemies is already being established, and this trend can further strengthen. — He's talking about it.
Kazakhstan political scientist Rustam Burnashev It is too early to talk about the consequences of the Iranian unrest. According to him, in the Islamic Republic with some frequency there are street performances, the last such wave was in 2022, with it the official Tehran eventually coped.
— I don't think it could be about exporting such unrest. Nevertheless, the political systems of the countries of our region are very different from Iran, and the ties are quite limited. It is clear that in the course of the unrest in Iran can block or damage port or rail infrastructure, then there will be some economic damage, although not very significant. It’s too early to talk about any bigger consequences, because we don’t fully understand what is happening in Iran right now. — He explains it.
