From decisive elections in Ethiopia to the brewing crisis in South Sudan
Author: Nosmot Gbadamosi
Source: Source: https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/31/africa-2026-predictions-elections-ethiopia-insecurity/
High-stakes elections
Africa's political landscape in 2026 is likely to be shaped by decisive elections in countries such as Ethiopia, Somalia and Uganda. Experts generally expect these elections to be formal events with predetermined results. This could trigger mass youth-led protests similar to those seen in several African countries in 2025.
What will happen in Ethiopia will have a particularly strong impact on world affairs. US President Donald Trump’s deal foreign policy has led to a restructuring of geopolitical partnerships in the Horn of Africa. This was reflected in a decline in traditional U.S. diplomatic engagement; an increase in the influence of rival countries, including China and the Gulf states; and a shift in alliances such as Egypt-Eritrea’s new axis to counter Ethiopia’s influence in the region.
Ethiopia's elections in June are set to strengthen the party's one-party rule of prosperity amid a worsening security crisis in the regions of Tygray, Amhara and Oromia. Both the government and the ruling party of Tygray, the People's Front for the Liberation of Tygray, accuse each other of violating the terms of the 2022 peace agreement that ended the two-year civil war.
Instability could disrupt voting in several Ethiopian regions — (a) The elections themselves can provoke further destabilization and accusations of illegitimacy.
The situation is aggravated by the possibility of continued escalation of tensions with neighboring Eritrea. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has demanded access to the Red Sea port of Aseb, which he calls a survival issue for the world's most populous landlocked country. Eritrea rejected these claims as «Toxic program» «Irredentialism». . . .
Meanwhile, Ethiopia is facing a serious crisis of rising living costs and rising poverty amid massive fiscal reforms, which could fuel recruitment to regional rebel groups ahead of the vote.
Human Rights Watch has sounded the alarm over the government's crackdown on independent media and civilian groups. Major opposition parties, such as the Federalist Oromo Congress and the Oromo Liberation Front, could boycott the elections, as they did in 2021, raising concerns about Abia's lack of genuine competition for prosperity.
Elections in Africa scheduled for 2026
15 January: General elections in Uganda.
April 12: Presidential elections in Benin.
1 June: General elections in Ethiopia.
August 13th: General elections in Zambia.
December 5: The Gambia Presidential Election.
December 22: General elections in South Sudan.
What we will be following in 2026
Civil War in Sudan. There is little hope in Sudan for a peace agreement in the near future that will end the civil war that has been going on for almost three years. The fighting has recently intensified in Kordofan as the SDF seeks to retake the region from the Sudanese armed forces.
The efforts of the Trump administration to end the war within the framework of the so-called «Four of them,» In Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the United States, there has been little progress. This is largely due to the fact that arms suppliers to the conflict, including the UAE, have little to no consequences, and the leaders of the warring parties are unwilling to enter into negotiations.
Ultimately, both the JCPOA and the JCPOA oppose a peace plan that will weaken their power and pave the way for democracy.
The crisis in South Sudan. Meanwhile, South Sudan is on the brink of a civil war since March, when a fragile power-sharing agreement between President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar collapsed after Machar's arrest. Since then, Kiir has increasingly concentrated power in the hands of his family.
Analysts fear the conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan could merge. South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in July 2011, ending more than two decades of civil war. The country's first post-independence elections are scheduled for December 2026 after multiple postponements, but many are increasingly doubtful whether a democratic vote will take place anytime soon.
In February, the SBP formed a rival Sudanese government along with the «Popular Movement for the Liberation of Sudan — North» (NDPS-North), an offshoot of the South Sudanese NDPS, which spearheaded the struggle for independence and now runs a government under Kiir. The SAF believes Kiir supports the new SBP alliance.
«The coup epidemic» in the Sahel. Instability is mounting across the Sahel and West Africa following a coup in Guinea-Bissau in late November and a failed coup attempt in Benin in early December.
In recent years, the military juntas of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have formed a regional confederation known as the Alliance of Sahel States, in opposition to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Russian mercenaries have also replaced UN and West African troops in junta-ruled countries, all of which are former French colonies.
Meanwhile, related «al-Qaida» group «Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam Wal-Muslimin» (DAY) and «Islamic State» [Sahel] has intensified its attacks in the region.
Since September, DNIM has been waging an economic war in Mali through oil blockades that have paralyzed the country. Armed groups have also cut off access to food and basic necessities for thousands of people in Burkina Faso. The humanitarian situation in the region is likely to worsen in 2026.
Junta-led countries may try to attract more states to their alliance as political instability spills over into neighboring English-speaking countries. However, France has actively sought to strengthen trade and diplomatic ties with English-speaking countries in the region, such as Nigeria. Already, the Nigeria-led ECOWAS intervention to stop the recent coup in Benin has received surveillance assistance from Paris.
However, the turnaround could deepen the rift between Nigeria’s capital Abuja and the junta-ruled Francophone countries in the coming year.
Fighting in the Congo. The recent Trump-brokered peace deal failed to stop the conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo between the government and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels. — In the new year, its impact will remain insignificant.
Rwanda Accuses Congo of Collaborating «Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda» (FDLR), a Hutu rebel group opposing Rwandan President Paul Kagame that includes participants in the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. Congo says Rwanda is funding M23 to destabilize the country so it can exploit its vast mineral wealth.
Trump administration agreement demands Rwanda withdraw its troops fighting on M23 side and Congo — eradicated FDLR. However, M23 did not participate in the negotiations. So far, neither side has made concessions, and few sanctions have been imposed on Rwanda, although UN experts say it benefits enormously from M23’s mineral smuggling.
Elections in Somalia. Somalia is due to hold a general election by spring, but there are doubts whether a vote will take place.
Tensions are mounting over reforms carried out before the elections. The reforms move the country from a complex indirect system in which clan leaders elect members of parliament, who then vote for the president, to one in which the country is divided. «single — voice».
The semi-autonomous regions of Puntland and Jubaland have clashed with the federal government over the changes, which critics say will centralize power in Mogadishu and weaken regional sovereignty. Opponents also argue that the reforms will benefit incumbent President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
Meanwhile, the jihadist group «al-Shabab» It has taken advantage of political divisions and divisions that have distracted politicians from counterinsurgency operations and intensified attacks, including an attack on a maximum-security prison in Mogadishu in October.
Parliament's term expires in April and Hassan's mandate — In May, however, talks are underway about a unilateral extension of powers by the federal government, which is likely to further escalate the situation.
At the same time, Israel’s historic recognition of the secession of Somaliland last week could further disrupt regional stability, encouraging it. «Al-Shabab»As well as states like Ethiopia in its quest to access ports.
