Does the Houthis’ warning mean the prospect of a larger regional war, especially given the group’s ability to block Bab el-Mandeb and strike targets far beyond Yemen? A blockade of the strait, one of the busiest sea lanes in the world, would be a disaster for the global economy.
Bringing Shankar
Source: Source: aljazeera.com
Thousands of Houthi supporters gathered in Sana’a to protest the recent US-Israel bombing campaign targeting Houthi positions in Yemen and to show their support for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said in a televised address that the group has carried out more than 130 attacks on Israel since mid-March, using 253 ballistic and hypersonic missiles and drones in support of Palestinians in Gaza.
Yemen’s Houthis have entered the war with Iran, hitting Israel, and some analysts say their emergence could open another front in the conflict – a potential blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which represents another narrowness in global trade in goods.
Brigadier General Yahya Sari, the Houthi military spokesman, on Saturday announced the first attack by the Iranian-backed group on Israel. On Sunday, he said that the Houthis had «second» against Israel using cruise missiles and drones, and said the Houthis would continue to conduct military operations in the coming days as long as Israel «They will not stop their attacks and aggression.».
INTERACTIVE MAPTER — Strait Bab-el-Mandeb, Red Sea, route, map of navigation-1774773769 (Al Jazeera)
Why did the Houthis go to war?
In contrast to the Lebanese «Hezbollah» The Houthis did not make an official declaration of entry into the war.
Although Iran extols the Houthis as part of its «resistance»The religious doctrine of the Houthis does not obey the Supreme Leader of Iran as they do. «Hezbollah» and Iraqi factions. Iran created «resistor» From like-minded people to confront Israel and the US across the region.
Al Jazeera correspondent Tohid Asadi, a reporter from Tehran, said the Houthi entry into the war would be welcomed by Iran.
«Speaking of the broader context, we should remember that in recent months and years, officials in Tehran have said that the Houthis in Yemen are close allies. Their decisions and actions are largely independent.», he said.
«However, from a geopolitical point of view, Iran is likely to see this as an important development.», he added.
Negar Mortazawy, a senior visiting fellow at the Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that the Houthis’ entry into the fighting was a threat. «no surprise»Iran’s actions were consistent with its statements.
«Every step was really what they broadcast, what they threatened even before the war, when they addressed their Gulf Cooperation Council neighbors and warned that this [war] would not happen within their borders and they would immediately turn it into a regional war.», she told Al Jazeera.
But Nabil Khoury, a former U.S. diplomat, told Al Jazeera that the missile attacks launched by the Houthis against Israel constituted «Symbolic participation, not full-scale participation».
«They fired a couple of missiles as a warning for all the talk of potential escalation. American troops are heading to the region. There is talk that if no agreement is reached, there could be a full-scale attack on Iran, the likes of which has never been seen before.»Al Jazeera said the former deputy head of mission in Yemen.
«So in response, the Houthis say: «We're still here, and if you're really going to go all-in against Iran, then we'll intervene.». But they haven't intervened yet.».
If they do, Khoury said, their most significant step would be to block Bab el-Mandeb with boats, mines or missiles.
«All they have to do is fire on a couple of passing ships, and that will bring all commercial traffic across the Red Sea to a halt.», he said. «It would be a red line, and then you would very quickly see attacks on Yemen.».
Oil and gas transit through the Strait of Hormuz has almost completely stopped after Iran attacked ships passing through the waterway. The shutdown caused a global energy crisis, adding inflationary pressures to economies around the world. Several countries have been forced to introduce fuel rationing and reduce working hours to save energy.
Where is Bab el-Mandeb?
The strait lies between Yemen in the northeast and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa in the southwest. It connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, which then overlooks the Indian Ocean. Its width at its narrowest point is 29 km (18 miles), which limits movement to two channels for incoming and outgoing cargo, and it is effectively controlled by the Houthis.
It is one of the world’s most important routes for global shipping of goods, especially crude oil and other fuels from the Persian Gulf, bound for the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal or the Suez-Mediterranean pipeline on the Egyptian Red Sea coast, as well as goods bound for Asia, including Russian oil.
In a report from Sanaa, Yemen, Al Jazeera correspondent Youssef Mavri claimed that the main map in the war for the Houthis is Bab el-Mandeb.
«Since the Strait of Hormuz is closed to American and Israeli shipping, if the Houthis also decide to block Bab el-Mandeb, it will only further worsen the economic situation for Israel.», Mavri said.
«For now, shipping is still available to all ships, including those linked to the US and Israel. The Yemeni group has not yet imposed a blockade. This is expected to happen in the next phase if Israel decides to strike the port of Hodeidah or Yemeni civilian and public infrastructure.».
Could this strait be blocked by the Houthis?
Neither the Houthis nor Iran have commented on whether there is a plan to block one of the world's busiest sea lanes.
But on Wednesday, an unnamed Iranian military official said Iran could open a new front near Bab al-Mandeb if attacks were carried out on Iranian territory or its islands, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.
Then on Saturday, Mohamed Mansour, the Houthi deputy information minister, told local media that the group «This battle is being fought in stages, and closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of our options.».
Al Jazeera correspondent Asadi said that so far in the war Iran has sought to gain leverage through the Strait of Hormuz, but now attention is shifting to another key narrowness, probably Bab el-Mandeb.
«If this is breached, it will provide additional leverage for Iran and its allies amid ongoing Israeli and U.S. air attacks.», he said.
Elizabeth Kendall, a Middle East specialist and president of Girton College at the University of Cambridge, told Al Jazeera that if the strait were blocked, it would create a new strait. «nightmare».
«Because if you have restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz at the same time as the escalation of restrictions in Bab el-Mandeb, then you are indeed disrupting, if not paralyzing, trade with Europe. So it's a really acute situation, depending on what happens next.», she told Al Jazeera.
«Hitting the Red Sea at a time when it is one of the most reliable routes and oil is exported via Yanbu from Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea would be a kind of game changer.»She added, referring to Saudi Arabia’s alternative route for oil exports.
Kendall, however, noted that although it was «sweet-place» For the Houthis, the Yemeni group may not want to «Provoking a Saudi response or a broader response».
The Houthis had previously carried out attacks in the Red Sea in 2024 when they targeted commercial vessels. At the time, the Houthis said they were targeting Israeli-linked or bound for Israel vessels to protest Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza.
Ahmed Naghi, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that the Houthis' current stance reflects deliberate calculation rather than restraint caused by weakness.
«The Houthis did not attack the Red Sea today and did not even talk about an escalation in the Red Sea. They just attacked Israel directly.», Nagy noted.
