A resonant event on the African continent was the signing by the military leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger of the Treaty of Establishment. «Confederation Alliance of Sahel States» (Alliance) in 2024, as well as the decision of these countries to leave the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
Alexei Noskov, Independent expert
Source source: russiancouncil.ru
Photo: https://gda.esa.int/story/how-innovation-can-resolve-conflict-in-the-sahel/
Faced with the negative consequences of sanctions pressure, the political leaders of the three states remain committed to the declared intention to strengthen sovereignty and counter Western external influence. The Alliance countries are reforming the armed forces, taking measures to strengthen internal security, expanding international cooperation, including with the Russian Federation. However, enormous work remains to be done by the new authorities, especially in the area of economic development.
The economic potential of the Alliance is impressive: the region is rich in such natural resources as uranium, gold, iron ore, tin, lithium, gypsum, oil, there is a powerful agro-industrial base (especially cattle breeding, cotton and peanut cultivation, river fishing).[1] The total population of the three countries exceeds 72 million people, which contributes to the formation of a relatively large market and provides the supply of labor. The total area of the Alliance’s territory exceeds 2.7 million km2, complete exploration of the subsoil has not yet been carried out. The geographical location provides opportunities for the use of the three countries as transit sites for the transport of resources between the Mediterranean and the Gulf of Guinea. Examples of such plans can be the idea of the construction of the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline, the prospects for the practical implementation of which are still vague, or the construction of the Trans-Saharan highway, which will be discussed further.
At the same time, the standard of living of the population remains unacceptably low: according to the World Bank, per capita GDP in 2023 from 181 analyzed countries Burkina Faso ranked 169th (883 dollars), Mali 171st (869 dollars), Niger 173rd (643 dollars). The need for breakthrough economic growth is evident regardless of the alliance’s further political relations with its neighbors and world powers. Otherwise, new military leaders in the coming years will face the threat of denial of support from the population, and statements on strengthening sovereignty will remain nothing more than propaganda slogans.
The economic potential of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso can be realized only if the routes providing trade and the necessary resources are functioning smoothly and efficiently. It is also important that the region borders both the countries of the Southern Mediterranean (Algeria, Morocco, Libya) and the states of the Gulf of Guinea, so the state of logistics will affect economic relations on the continental scale along the north-south line.
General problems
The lack of direct access to the World Ocean entails the dependence of the Alliance members on the port infrastructure of coastal countries in ensuring commodity exports and imports. In this regard, the potential problems in the operation of maritime and automotive logistics facilities of neighbors, as well as political contradictions, can significantly complicate the foreign trade of the three states.
Higher population density and concentration of economic activity in the southern regions of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso cause uneven level of development of internal road networks, as well as the orientation of logistics flows towards the states of the Gulf of Guinea and Senegal. The creation of transport corridors towards the northern neighbors (Libya, Algeria, Mauritania) is hampered by the harsh climatic conditions of the Sahara, the weak level of communication development, the modest scale of economic activity in the desert area.
The insufficient capacity (financial, personnel, industrial, technological) of the Alliance countries for the construction of transport infrastructure forces them to rely on external assistance.
The scarcity and weariness of the road network and auxiliary infrastructure (service points, repairs) reduce the efficiency of logistics processes and cause increased load of transport corridors.
The lack of effective policy of the authorities contributes to the reduction of investment attractiveness. So, the project on modernization of the Dakar railway — Bamako was not implemented, which led to the termination of its operation in the 2010s. According to the World Bank, the reason was the failure of the government of Mali to ensure compliance with the interests of the French company Advens, which was a participant in the concession. In Niger, Bollore completed the construction of the country’s only 140 km long railway line in 2016, but legal disputes with regional businesses forced the investor to leave the project, and the infrastructure created is not being exploited.
Legitimate outcome of the described trends — The weak state of the logistics industry in each of the three countries, its unpreparedness to ensure the implementation of resource potential and meet the needs of the population and business. The World Bank estimates that in landlocked Sahel countries, transportation costs are up to 20% of the value of imported goods, which is 3-4 times higher than in developed countries.
Main corridors
Routes play a special role in the Alliance states, providing the possibility of cargo delivery to the seaports of neighboring states (their schematic image is presented in figure 1). Let us give a brief description of each of them.
In Mali, the most important logistics corridors for foreign trade are the roads connecting Bamako to the ports of Abidjan (Côte d'Ivoire) and Dakar (Senegal). In the direction of the latter, a railway was also laid, actively used for decades, but the poor state of infrastructure led to the termination of its operation in 2018. Despite this, «Senegalese» The corridor remains the most in demand, providing up to 80% of the country’s foreign trade cargo turnover through roads, and the government prioritizes this route. In 2025, the media received information on the provision of a loan from the World Bank in the amount of $238 million for the modernization of one of the sections of the Bamako highway. — Dakar, that's it. Notably, until the early 2000s. «Ivory Coast» The path was more active, but the military-political crisis in that African country forced Bamako to shift logistics flows towards Senegal.
Despite having a common border, the transit potential of Guinea and Mauritania is constrained by a shortage of infrastructure: the annual capacity of the port of Conakry is 340,000. The 20-foot container (TEU) so the harbour is focused on serving its internal needs. For comparison: indicators of the harbours of Abidjan and Dakar 2.5 million TEU and 800,000. TEU, respectively. Mauritania does not have large container terminals.
For Burkina Faso, the corridors of Ouagadougou are the most important — Theme (Republic of Ghana), Ouagadougou — Lome (Republic of Togo), Ouagadougou — Abidjan (Republic of Côte d'Ivoire). The latter consists of a highway and a railway operated by European companies. In 2025, the media reported on agreements between the authorities of Burkina Faso on the one hand, and the African Development Bank and the Islamic Development Bank on the other hand on the allocation of more than $ 300 million for the reconstruction of road infrastructure on the route to Ouagadougou. — Abidjan, that's it.
The corridor in the direction of Togo provides about 40% of Burkina Faso's imports and serves transit cargo in the interests of neighbouring Niger. The World Bank is assisting in a project to upgrade the road in Burkina Faso, Niger and Togo, with a planned loan of $470 million, indicating an increasing role for the route.
In Niger, an important role is played by the previously mentioned corridor in the direction of the port of Lome (Togo Republic), which involves the use of the territory of Burkina Faso as a transit, as well as an oil pipeline laid to the coast of Benin and serving oil exports. In past years, a significant part of the logistical needs was met by the route towards the city of Cotonou (Benin), which also provides export of uranium-containing ores mined in Niger. However, the political contradictions led to a reduction in trade between the two countries in 2023, at the moment Niamey has not lifted restrictions on the import of goods, although the transportation of oil through the said pipeline resumed. Assistance in the development of the Niger road network towards the north — South (connection of Arlit and Assamak cities, as well as Agades) — Zinder is provided by the World Bank and the African Development Bank. These areas form part of the Trans-Saharan Railway. Road links with Nigeria play an important role in securing Niger's foreign trade. This country is significant as a market for agricultural products and an exporter of electricity. It is difficult to assess the extent of transit to Niger using the Nigerian port of Lagos due to the lack of comprehensive information.
Figure 1. Current and projected logistics routes.
Dark blue marked the existing logistic corridors used by Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso to provide access to the sea. The route used until 2023 to ensure the export of uranium-containing ore is highlighted in red. The dotted blue line marks Morocco's Atlantic Initiative, with a dotted green line — Trans-Saharan highway. The actual contours of current and projected routes may differ slightly from those shown on this map. Dark brown is highlighted by members of the Alliance, light brown — Members of ECOWAS and Guinea, whose membership in the bloc has been suspended
The drawing was made by the author on the basis of the sources specified in this article.
Mutual dependence
All actively exploited foreign economic corridors of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger involve the use of the territory of ECOWAS members. Alternative options, including smuggling, are unlikely to ensure the foreign trade of the three countries at a satisfactory level.
The importance of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger for the economic development of transit neighbors is also great. First, the foreign trade service of the three major countries has transformed the described logistics routes into economic corridors, contributing to the development of manufacturing, services, trade and the creation of tens of thousands of jobs. For example, more than 60% of the cargo turnover served by the port of Lome is transit, mainly in the interests of Burkina Faso. Second, the Alliance is a major market for its neighbours, with exports of Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire to Mali reaching $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion respectively in 2023. Thirdly, the strategic plans of some West African countries involve the development of economic ties with the Sahel states, including in the form of servicing logistics flows. In particular, the Government of Guinea plans to expand the capacity of the port of Conakry in order to use it in the interests of Mali, while recognizing the presence of fierce competition from neighbors for access to the market of the African Republic.
The complication of political relations and attempts to impose sanctions on members of the Alliance are particularly sensitive for the ECOWAS countries: information about the deterioration of the situation of the population and mass dissatisfaction with the actions of the authorities after the introduction of restrictive measures in 2022 and 2023. Despite the painful consequences for the Sahel states, these sanctions did not result in a complete freezing of the economic ties of ECOWAS members with Bamako, Niameem and Ouagadougou: in the case of Mali, the ban did not apply to a number of essential goods, and in the case of Niger, there was an opportunity to meet logistical needs through the route from Togo through Burkina Faso, restrictive measures against which were not imposed by the regional bloc.[2]
Proposals for the development of alternative routes of regional importance involving Algeria and Morocco are also relevant.
Algerian version
Interest in the possible construction of transport infrastructure connecting the Southern Mediterranean and the Gulf of Guinea was expressed by Algeria in the 1970s.
We are talking about the Trans-Saharan Railway, which runs from the capital of the Arab Republic to the Nigerian port of Lagos through the territory of Niger (see figure 1).
The potential of this corridor is enormous: it can not only stimulate the expansion of economic ties across the region, but also optimize trade between the Mediterranean and Black Africa by diversifying logistics opportunities. The media of the Arab Republic characterize the project as the embodiment of the dream of regional African integration into the long-term economic reality.
The construction is funded by the public funds of Algeria and Nigeria, and the World Bank and the African Development Bank are helping to build the site in Niger. Algerian officials say most of the work (up to 90%) has been done. Many drivers are already crossing the route using existing infrastructure.
At first glance, the above shows optimism. However, the highway is described by motorists as one of the most extreme in the world. In a harsh climate, the rate of wear of equipment is high, so the probability of failure increases significantly. In addition, sandstorms make traffic difficult, the road is often covered with dunes. At the same time, there are too few maintenance and recreation facilities, traffic regulation is weak, and the border crossing procedure between Algeria and Niger represents a bureaucratically complex process. All this makes the route unattractive for cargo carriers.
Let's highlight another circumstance. The level of loading of seaports in Algeria (with the exception of facilities serving the export of oil, gas and products of their processing) today forces them to work at the limit of their capacity, the problem of silencing is acute, the downtime of ships caused by delays in the maintenance of goods is high. Thus, the maritime logistics sector of the Arab Republic needs expansion, modernization and reform, which will require time and investment. In the absence of an exhaustive solution to these problems, the prospects for the conversion of Algeria into «Gate to the African continent» They are doubtful.
The completion of the construction of an asphalt highway between Lagos and the capital of Algeria — Only one of the many elements for creating a logistics corridor of regional importance. It is also important to build an auxiliary infrastructure, to stimulate business to ensure cargo transportation services, to prepare personnel, to integrate the work of the transport industry of the countries involved.
Moroccan version
In November 2023, King Mohammed VI of Morocco proposed an initiative that would allow the Sahel countries to access the Atlantic Ocean. The monarch stressed that its success depends on the modernization of the transport systems of the Sahel states and their connection to the logistics networks of the region, and the kingdom is ready to provide its port, rail and road infrastructure to the fraternal countries. A possible diagram of a potential logistic corridor is presented in Figure 1.
In April 2025, the foreign ministers of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, at a meeting with Mohammed VI, announced their support. «The Atlantic Initiative». . . .
The location of the monarchy on the southern shore of the Strait of Gibraltar, which is the gateway to the Mediterranean Sea, gives Morocco a unique geographical advantage by crossing this small stretch of many shipping lines of global importance. The Kingdom was able to realize this potential by building on its territory the port complex Tangier Med, the main purpose of which — transit service. This facility has no analogues in Africa in terms of the level of applied technologies and capabilities: its capacity is 9 million TEU (for comparison: a similar indicator of all ports of Algeria less than 2 million TEU). The European Investment Bank (provided a loan of 200 million euros), the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development, Bouygues (France) and Boskalis (Netherlands) were involved in the construction of the infrastructure, the Dutch APM Terminals, the French CMA CGM, the Swiss Mediterranean Shipping Company and the German Eurogate operated. The port not only provides Morocco with better access to international logistics routes, but also strengthens the Kingdom's cooperation with the world's leading shipping companies. Neither Algeria nor ECOWAS members can boast of such opportunities.
The major ports are also Casablanca and Jarf-Lasfar. The country has a system of railways and highways developed by the standards of Africa. Currently, a logistics center in Dahla (a territory related to Western Sahara) worth 1.2 billion euros is being created, within which it is planned to build a deep-sea port to service bulk cargo with a container terminal with a capacity of 1 million TEU. The completion of construction is planned in 2029. This is one of the largest projects in Africa, giving grounds to argue that Morocco has already begun to realize its transit potential. «Southern Provinces» (This is what the kingdom calls the Western Sahara region) in the interests of neighboring states.
At the same time, the possibilities of the monarchy should not be overestimated: the above-described progress in the development of logistics was achieved thanks to the support of foreign investors, as well as the participation of representatives of European enterprises and specialists. However, the question of whether they will show interest in the Atlantic initiative remains open.
The scale of economic activity, the degree of infrastructure development and the level of qualification of the population in the southern regions of the kingdom, which should be used to build a road towards the Sahel countries, largely lag behind the northern ones. The creation of a logistics corridor through Mauritania and Mali will require a large amount of investment to find resources for which it will be difficult. Moreover, Morocco has no experience in implementing such international projects.
Separately, we will mention the situation in Western Sahara, which has been the subject of international dispute for decades: the status of these territories has not yet been determined, and decisions that would be acceptable to all parties involved have not yet been taken. It is impossible to implement the project proposed by Rabat to create a logistics corridor without the use of these lands based on geographical aspects. Consequently, the question of whether the Moroccan Atlantic Initiative is compatible with international law could be judged differently by states that influence regional politics, which would be a serious obstacle to the idea being put into practice. Recall that the position of the Russian Federation is the need to realize the right of the West Nosahar people to self-determination within the framework of procedures consistent with the principles and goals of the UN Charter.
Let us note another circumstance. The beginning of the 2020s was marked by the weakening of the military-political and economic presence of France in the region, including as a result of military coups in the Sahel countries. In the first half of 2023, President Macron announced a new era in relations between Paris and Africa. It is interesting that the European politician drew attention to the task of economic return of France to the continent and highlighted as a new priority the participation of the Fifth Republic in the construction of logistics corridors between the North and the South. The sounding of the Atlantic initiative from the mouth of the Moroccan monarch shortly after Macron’s statements is hardly a coincidence: given the geographical location of the kingdom and the presence of a developed port infrastructure on its territory, Rabat’s offer, which for many years remains a reliable partner of Paris, can contribute to the expansion of trade and investment ties between the former metropolis and the Sahel countries. The Atlantic initiative thus meets the interests of France, and may be combined with the strategic plans of this European country in terms of its economic policy in Africa.
Conclusions
Despite the peculiarities of regional policy, interest from a number of African countries in expanding cooperation in the logistics industry with Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger is increasing, due to significant resource potential and the presence of a large market in their territory.
New projects implemented with the participation of Morocco and Algeria and described in this article can not only contribute to the diversification of foreign trade relations of states. — Members of the Alliance and the development of their internal regions located in the Sahara, but also to stimulate the expansion of economic relations between the countries of the Mediterranean, the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea, which is constrained by the weak level of development of road transport infrastructure on the continent. The emergence of such logistic corridors corresponds to the interests and objectives of Paris, and therefore France’s support for their development cannot be excluded.
Morocco and Algeria continue to make significant efforts to build the necessary infrastructure, and international organizations provide assistance in the construction of the Trans-Saharan Railway. However, the climatic features of the region and the lack of investment resources of the countries involved will require enormous efforts, funds and time costs to create commercially attractive logistics corridors. The political difficulties associated with the status of Western Sahara, which can affect the implementation of the Moroccan Atlantic initiative, are not excluded. The risks for both projects remain high, and it is still premature to predict specific deadlines for their completion.
Consequently, conditions for the elimination of the dependence of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso on the port and road infrastructure of Senegal and the states located on the coast of the Gulf of Guinea are currently lacking. A possible solution to the long-term rupture of economic ties between current ECOWAS members and the Alliance countries by administrative means (closing borders and banning trade) as a tool for resolving political contradictions will have extremely dire consequences for both sides, and the ability of all members of the two blocs to adhere to such restrictions for a long time is doubtful.
The new authorities of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso manage to attract investments from international organizations in the modernization of existing logistics routes in the direction of the Gulf of Guinea and Senegal, Niamey also receives support in the construction of its section of the Trans-Saharan Railway. These projects are important, but their scale and pace of implementation are insufficient to ensure economic breakthroughs and improve living standards.
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2. 2. 2. Denisova T., Kostelenets S. Political crisis in Burkina Faso: internal and external factors of destabilization // Ways to peace and security. 2023. No. 2 (65). C.86, please. URL: https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2023-2-73-90
