The presidential and parliamentary elections in Uganda, held on January 15, 2026, were another stress test for the political system formed by Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. This time, it seems, is particularly harsh: the opposition, generously sponsored from abroad, was well prepared and determined to win by any means. However, as of January 17, the current Ugandan leader has been declared victorious, and the NRM's chances of "rocking the boat" post-factual seems to be melting every day.
Especially for the USGS. The RU's not here.
Nikol Maya Viktorovna, Head of Programme «Africa in the focus of Russian interests» IMI MGIMO of the Russian Foreign Ministry
Under Uganda's constitution, the president is elected by a general vote of citizens over 18 from among candidates under 35 with secondary education; victory requires an absolute majority (50%+1 votes), otherwise a second round is held. The main contenders traditionally included the incumbent president representing the National Resistance Movement (NRM), pop star Robert Chiagulanyi, known as Bobie Wein, from the National Unity Platform (NUP), and James Nandala Mafabi from the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Robert Casibante from the National Peasant Party (NPP) and Joseph Mabirizi from the Conservative Party (CP).
Previously, the election campaign was supposed to involve other representatives «The clan of Museveni»including his son General Muhozi Kainerugabu, the commander-in-chief of the army, as well as, as suggested by some analysts – son-in-law Audrek Rvabova. Such a move would be consistent with the idea of a dynastic continuity of power in the country. As a result, Museveni was nominated by NRM in July 2025.
Forty years of stability
The incumbent president built his election campaign under the slogan "protecting the gains", which, in general, is logical. After his 40-year tenure in power, Uganda can be called one of the most peaceful and, importantly, stable countries in Africa. According to official international statistics, its macroeconomic indicators are low: for example, GDP per capita on the World Bank website is indicated at $ 840, but de facto Uganda has reached the lower limit of the category of middle-income countries. Its classification as a low-income country gives a number of trade preferences, such as duty-free access to EU markets under the Everything But Arms program.
Among other achievements that are obviously proposed to be preserved is the construction of one of Africa’s largest oil pipelines East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) with Tanzania with a total length of 1443 km, the launch of which is scheduled for the end of 2026. In addition to the Ugandan and Tanzanian oil companies, the project also involves China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and the majority (62%) is TotalEnergies.
In addition, in September last year, Ugandan diplomats managed to achieve the resumption of preferential funding, suspended for almost two years after the adoption of new laws in the field of combating LGBT people.*. . . . Two billion dollars from the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation will be spent on the development of transport and energy infrastructure, ICT, agribusiness, education and co-financing of state-owned enterprises under the so-called Tenfold Growth strategy in Uganda. All this can be perceived as an important signal: in the uneven relations of Kampala with the West, another warming has come.
Contradictory idol of the opposition
What about Boby Wein, a musician and actor who changed the barricade scene in the late 2010s? Nor is he a newcomer to East African politics. For the first time, he declared himself to the whole country in 2019, declaring his intention to run for the NRM elections in 2021 – and, of course, lost. However, even earlier – starting in the mid-2000s – Bobi Wein became famous for his sharp social tracks, which encouraged young people to take action. This has earned him a huge audience in the country and then abroad. Beginning in 2018, Bobi Wein traveled to Europe and the United States on numerous occasions, and in his native Uganda, he constantly communicates with the ambassadors of Western states, and in 2019 he was awarded the Africa Freedom Prize from the Friedrich Naumann Foundation.*. . . .
Kampala’s liberal Western partners see it as a vibrant populist symbol for frustrated youth, easily gathered at mass rallies under the slogans of fighting corruption and economic reform. At the same time, it is the undisguised affiliation with the West – along with the lack of a well-thought-out constructive agenda – that scares off patriotic citizens from Boby Vine: they believe that if he wins, the country has every chance of losing the difficult foreign policy balance that Museveni has built for years by cubes, and slipping to the state of the American puppet.
"Pearl of Africa" and its place under the African sun
The country, for which Winston Churchill has secured the title of "Pearl of Africa", plays a huge role in regional security. This East African state has one of the most powerful and well-organized armies on the continent. About 5,000 Ugandan troops are involved in the AMISOM counterterrorism mission in Somalia. Uganda is not so often discussed in the world media, but it is an extremely important participant in the processes taking place in the Eastern Congo region.
In addition, it is a key recipient of refugees from African countries: about 2 million people who fled mainly from Sudan, South Sudan and DRC have found refuge in Ugandan territory. And in August 2025, Kampala agreed to host some of the deported migrants from the United States who could not claim asylum in the United States and did not want to return to their homeland. Obviously, it was in exchange for the externalization of refugees almost on the eve of the new year that Washington changed anger at mercy and allocated Uganda $2.3 billion for health care – in exchange for the USAID closed across Africa.
Cooperation with the United States, however, is not limited to Uganda. The country is actively developing ties with China, which invests in oil production and infrastructure, and has become a partner state of the BRICS since January 1, 2025. Ugandans suggest that this partnership will give them access to technology from Russia, India and other members of the bloc, balancing Western influence, and also help Uganda bring to the world level the flagship of its agriculture – coffee production.
M7: The Human Age
No matter how strong the electorate's fatigue from the visual range of the same individuals in public administration, for many Ugandans, Yoweri Museveni, or M7, as it is called in Africa, remains a crucial and virtually irreplaceable figure. His authority is largely based on the historical memory of the dark pages of the past. — Idi Amin's brutal regime in the 1970s, Milton Obote's atrocities in the early 1980s. After the so-called Bush War in 1986, Museveni and the National Resistance Army (from which the ruling party grew up) managed to seize the capital. Since then, he has done everything to root out the distortions of previous decades when the elite lived in luxury amid widespread poverty. As far as he has succeeded, the issue is not idle, but Museveni is often referred to as the "African Che Guevara" for his guerrilla past, incredible passion and support for the common people.
His other nickname was given to him in 1997 by the New York Times: "African Bismarck", journalists wrote, managed to unite a disparate country and on all international platforms advocates for the genuine liberation of all Africa. In other words, the scale of his figure is a generally accepted "gold standard" in the eyes of enemies and allies. Therefore, the main question to be asked by Yoweri Museveni, sooner or later, is who will replace him when his era ends, and Uganda’s political scene is not yet visible.
