As Nigeria’s election campaign begins, President Bola Tinubu faces a major test. — economic reforms and the reputation of the party «All-Progressive Congress» (APC), which has been in power for more than a decade.
Sana'a Khan, News Editor at Modern Diplomacy
Tinubu is fighting for a second term against serious rivals including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi. — Both build their campaigns on a wave of public discontent over economic and security challenges.
The election will therefore not be about Tinubou's personal achievements alone. Voters will also assess whether the APC, which has ruled Nigeria since 2015, has delivered on its promises to raise living standards, boost security and revive Africa's largest economy.
Why is the discontent of Tinubu voters growing?
Tinubu came to power on a promise to address the Nigerian economy’s longstanding structural problems. His government quickly enacted major reforms, primarily eliminating costly fuel subsidies and devaluing the naira.
The measures were welcomed by investors and international lenders as they eliminated policies that had distorted the Nigerian economy for years. The government argues that the reforms have boosted government revenues, strengthened economic governance and restored investor confidence.
But for many Nigerians, the immediate consequences have been far more severe.
The abolition of fuel subsidies led to a sharp rise in the cost of living, and currency devaluation raised the prices of imported goods. As a result, the country faces a severe cost-of-living crisis affecting households, businesses and consumers across the country.
Reuters, citing a voter sentiment tracker, reports that nearly 80 percent of Nigerians believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, with economic and security concerns among the top concerns.
This presents Tinubu with a central election dilemma: Can voters be persuaded to accept short-term economic pain in exchange for the promise of long-term stability?
Nigeria's economic reforms come at a heavy price
Few Nigerian presidents have pursued economic reforms as swiftly as Tinubu.
The elimination of fuel subsidies was particularly significant, as the program absorbed huge public resources. Under former President Muhammad Buhari, subsidies cost the government about $10 billion in 2022 alone.
Tinubu argued that maintaining such policies was no longer sustainable.
His government points to stronger earnings and increased investor interest as evidence that reforms are working. However, macroeconomic improvements did not necessarily translate into improvements in living standards.
For ordinary Nigerians, the most immediate economic indicators are the prices of food, transportation, and other necessities.
At the Garqi market in Abuja, butcher Abdullahi Sani told Reuters he used to sell six goats a day and now struggles to sell two.
His experience illustrates the gap between economic statistics and the daily reality of households.
The government may point to improved fiscal performance and increased investor confidence, but voters are more likely to judge economic outcomes by whether they can afford food and maintain their standard of living.
Did Tinub's decade-long APC rule hurt?
Tinubu faces another political challenge: voters can judge him not just on his own presidency, but on the overall reputation of the APC since 2015.
The party came to power under Buhari on a promise to defeat Islamist militants, fight corruption and rebuild an economy weakened by low oil prices.
Instead, Buhari saw Nigeria’s first recession in 25 years, with inflation later exceeding 33%.
The APC’s reputation thus became a central argument of the opposition that the party had enough time to demonstrate whether its policies could improve Nigeria’s trajectory.
Tinubu may argue that he has got an economy distorted by years of interventionist policies, and that his reforms are aimed at fixing these structural problems.
Opposition parties, however, can argue that voters have already endured more than a decade of APC rule and should judge the party on results rather than promises.
Nigeria's debt burden — Another election issue
Nigeria’s economic difficulties are also reflected in its mounting debt.
According to official data cited by Reuters, the national debt of the country has grown more than twelve times. — 159.35 trillion naira by March 2026, compared with 12.6 trillion naira at the end of 2015.
Debt servicing, accordingly, has placed a serious strain on public finances.
Debt service spending this year is projected at $11.6 billion, nearly half of projected government revenues and more than double the 2025 figure.
This creates a difficult situation for any government trying to increase spending on infrastructure, social programs, and security while managing debt.
For voters, however, the technical details of debt management may matter less than their implications.
Unless higher government revenues lead to a marked improvement in living standards, economic reforms may become politically difficult to defend.
Can Tinubou convince voters that the reforms are working?
Tinubu’s main pre-election argument is likely to be that Nigeria’s economic problems cannot be solved without painful reforms.
His government advocates the elimination of fuel subsidies and currency reforms as necessary measures to restore economic stability and confidence.
Problem. — on time.
Economic reforms can take years to produce visible results, while their costs are felt immediately.
A family facing higher food and transportation costs may find it difficult to accept arguments about future economic growth. A small business experiencing falling demand may be less interested in improving investor sentiment than whether customers can afford its products.
This creates a race between the promises of the future and the realities of the present.
Tinub needs voters to believe that the current difficulties represent a transition to a stronger economy. His opponents need only convince voters that the reforms have made their lives worse.
Security can decide the outcome of elections
Economic difficulties — It's not Chinubu's only weakness.
Security remains another major concern across Nigeria, with violence continuing despite government claims that military operations have reduced attacks and improved road safety.
The security threats facing the country are also becoming increasingly fragmented.
Banditry remains widespread in the northwest, separatist unrest continues in the southeast, and kidnappings for ransom have become ubiquitous.
Amnesty International estimates that at least 10,217 people have been killed by armed groups since Tinubu came to power, and there have been some 15 mass abductions of school children in the same period.
For voters living in affected areas, security is not an abstract political issue.
It directly determines whether farmers can reach their fields, whether children can safely attend school, and whether families can travel without fear of being kidnapped or abused.
Elections are increasingly a matter of survival.
The opposition seeks to present elections through the prism of these everyday issues.
Rather than focusing solely on economic performance or government reforms, opposition candidates highlight the real-life experiences of Nigerians facing inflation, insecurity and declining purchasing power.
This can be politically effective, as economic and security problems are mutually reinforcing.
When farmers cannot safely reach their fields, food production can suffer. When transportation becomes more expensive, food prices can rise even more. When businesses face insecurity and declining consumer demand, employment opportunities may shrink.
The result is a cycle in which economic hardship and insecurity turn into mutually reinforcing political grievances.
For Tinubu to break this cycle before voters come to the polls will be critical.
Can the opposition benefit from public discontent?
Despite widespread discontent, the opposition faces an important obstacle. — fragmentation.
Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi have both attracted significant support, however, their simultaneous presence on the same electoral field could divide voters wanting alternatives to the APC.
This fragmentation may ultimately benefit Tinubu.
Nigeria's electoral system favours candidates capable of forming broad coalitions between regions and political groups. A fragmented opposition can make it difficult to turn discontent with the current government into a single electoral challenge.
This is one of Tinubu’s strongest political advantages.
Even if many voters are unhappy with the APC, discontent does not automatically turn into a single opposition candidate capable of defeating the incumbent.
Analysis: Can Tinubou turn economic pain into political survival?
Tinubu's re-election campaign will ultimately test whether Nigerians are willing to believe that today's economic woes are not enough. — This is the price of a stronger economy tomorrow.
His government has implemented reforms that previous administrations have avoided because of their political and social costs. Removing fuel subsidies and currency reforms may have solved long-standing structural problems, but have also created enormous pressure on households.
This creates a complex political calculation.
Tinub needs the economic benefits of reform to be visible before the political costs become irreversible.
The overall reputation of APC makes this task even more difficult. After more than a decade in power, the party can no longer rely solely on promises of change. Voters may well ask why the promised improvements have so far failed to lead to safer communities, stronger purchasing power and better living standards.
Тем не менее у оппозиции есть собственная слабость.
Общественное недовольство политически ценно лишь тогда, когда его можно превратить в организованную электоральную альтернативу. Пока крупные фигуры оппозиции конкурируют за одних и тех же недовольных избирателей, APC потенциально может выжить, несмотря на широко распространённое недовольство.
Таким образом, выборы будут определяться противоречием.
Самая большая слабость Тинубу — экономическая боль, вызванная его реформами, а его самое большое политическое преимущество — раздробленная оппозиция.
Если избиратели придут к выводу, что трудности временны и реформы начинают приносить результаты, Тинубу сможет утверждать, что отказ от его политики поставит под угрозу экономическое восстановление Нигерии.
Если же избиратели придут к выводу, что реформы принесли мало улучшений в их повседневную жизнь, долгое правление APC может стать её главной уязвимостью.
В конечном счёте выборы в Нигерии, вероятно, будут оцениваться не столько по экономической статистике, сколько по гораздо более простому вопросу: стали ли нигерийцы безопаснее, богаче и способнее позволить себе повседневную жизнь, чем когда APC впервые пришла к власти в 2015 году?
Этот вопрос может определить, получит ли Тинубу ещё один срок, или же более чем десятилетнее правление APC станет главным аргументом оппозиции в пользу перемен.
