Kelechi Amakokh, Doctorate of Political Science at the University of Michigan
Africa’s electoral cycle of 2025 was marked by some post-coup transitions and attempts to suppress opposition candidates.
Source: Source: https://goodauthority.org/news/five-lessons-from-africas-2025-elections/
In November 2025, Guinea-Bissau President Umar Sisoku Embalo announced his removal days after the November 23 election. This statement shocked the nation and immediately sparked controversy.
Opposition Social Renewal Party (PSO) accuses Embalo and his party «by Madem-G15» that they did not allow their candidate, Fernando Diaz, to be declared the winner. International observers, including former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, questioned the credibility of the coup claims. Instead, he suggested that Embalo fabricated the crisis to avoid declaring an opposition victory.
Across Africa, the controversial election results, the suppression of the opposition and the fragility of democratic institutions continue to challenge fair political competition. The contested elections last year highlighted five important conclusions:
1. 1. Current leaders continue to thrive
The 2025 elections tested the strength of the current candidates. The degree of control over election commissions, courts and security forces was often more important than election programs. In many cases, current or transitional leaders have won by a large margin. For example, President Paul Bia was re-elected in October to head Cameroon, extending his rule for decades despite considerable controversy. Similarly, President Alassan Wattara secured a fourth term in the Ivory Coast election in October. He won by a large margin despite low turnout and political unrest.
Each point represents a single national election held in 2025. Most of the elections brought the current leaders back to power, there were fewer cases of power change, and some elections were thwarted by a military coup. Compiler: Kelechi Amakoh, based on data from news reports.
2. 2. 2. Elections after coups — The question of legitimacy
In 2025, three choices in West and Central Africa were influenced by military intervention, in each case in different ways. Elections in Gabon and Guinea were preceded by coups (in 2023 and 2021 respectively). In Guinea-Bissau, the coup disrupted the November 23 election before the results were announced.
The April elections in Gabon directly concerned the legitimacy of the leadership that came to power in the coup. Bris Oligy Ngema, a military leader who came to power after the 2023 coup, ran for president amid widespread debate over his right to participate. His campaign focused on national unity and reconstruction after the coup. Using the slogan «Building together»It represented voting as a civil restart, not a continuation of military rule.
So, one video shows Ngema dancing at a campaign rally for the 1990 hit. «(I've Got) The Power» Snap!, which symbolized his confidence in Gabon's election victory.
3. 3. Several current leaders managed to suppress the opposition.
In countries such as Tanzania, Côte d'Ivoire and Burundi, incumbent leaders suspended opposition figures ahead of elections. This suppression limited the circle of those who can run, determined the terms of the campaign and made it difficult to organize the work of the opposition.
As I wrote before the Tanzanian election in October, the government suspended the main opposition leaders and restricted their ability to campaign.
These actions demonstrate how authoritarian leaders can win elections without stealing votes on voting day. Instead, they shape the outcome long before people come to the polls, controlling who is allowed to run, who is free to campaign and what messages voters can hear. At the time of voting, elections may look orderly, but any real competition has already been eliminated.
That's 4. Negative campaigns thrive where institutions are weak
In countries with initially fragile electoral institutions, negative campaigns further undermine public confidence in election outcomes. Before the Malawi election in September, there were several incidents involving negative campaigns. Former president Peter Mutarika accuses party secretary general «The Malawi Congress» Richard Chimvendo Bandu and President Lazarus Chuckover intimidation in the Central Region. The gang parryed, calling the Mutarika «First, clean up your own house.» and pointing to alleged cases of violence involving members of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). This required the intervention of the chairman of the Malawi Electoral Commission (ECM) Judge Annabel Matlimanyi.
It's 5 years old. Even imperfect elections are still important.
Elections across Africa remain a vital way of organizing, mobilizing and receiving international support. However, many elections last year did not meet democratic norms and expectations.
According to political scientists Jamie Black and Nicolas van de Valle in their book on elections in Africa, regular elections in sub-Saharan Africa have become «Political setting by default». . . . The authors emphasize that elections should be viewed not only as mechanisms of democratic accountability, but also as moments of temporary political variability. These periods of uncertainty allow citizens and political parties to mobilise, challenge power and signal legitimacy, even if these steps rarely lead to sustained democratic change.
Recent elections illustrate this. In Cameroon, Paul Bia has been in power for more than 40 years, winning several terms despite ongoing disputes over time limits. However, each election cycle continues to change political behavior. Opposition coalitions are reorganizing, the risks of protests are increasing, and external governments and institutions are changing the format of interaction with the regime.
In Côte d'Ivoire, Wattara secured a fourth term despite low turnout. — But these elections still had political significance. They have stepped up bargaining within the ruling coalition, limited opposition strategies, provoked local protests and attracted increased attention from regional and international observers.
These cases reflect the key message of Black and van de Valle: elections are important in Africa because they support political competition and make it difficult for leaders to rule without challenges.
Kelechi Amakokh — Fellow of the Good Authority 2025-2026 programme. His research focuses on elite communication and how it shapes voter perceptions and democratic attitudes in multi-ethnic societies.
