As Trump re-interfers in the Nile dispute, tensions in the Horn of Africa are rising, forcing Israel to navigate an increasingly complex and explosive regional and landscape.

Source: Source: jpost.com

US President Donald Trump in Israel is praised for what no other leader has been able to achieve: the return of hostages from Gaza and the establishment of a ceasefire in a seemingly endless war.

Now, it seems, the self-proclaimed head of a new «Council of Peace» It can challenge circumstances again, this time planning to dive into the waters of the Nile. In January, Trump formally notified Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi that the U.S. is restarting efforts to resolve a long-standing dispute between Egypt (along with Sudan), on the one hand, and Ethiopia, on the other, over the world's longest river.

The most notable aspect of the planned mediation is that the U.S. is firmly on the side of Egypt, as it was during the previous U.S. mediation that Ethiopia ended in 2020. This means that to conclude «Transaction of the transaction» Trump's instinct could be to try to use further pressure on Ethiopia — policies that did not work when economic pressure was applied during his first administration.

Trump is seeking to strengthen the already intimate relationship he has developed with al-Sisi, given Cairo's crucial role in the U.S. flagship foreign-policy enterprise: shaping a new Gaza. One way to do this — Ask Cairo for help with the Nile in response to Ethiopia's opening in September of its huge Dam of the Great Ethiopian Revival. Cairo sees the work of the Ethiopian dam without a legal agreement, regulations and guarantees of its water supply as an existential threat.
This issue has been a source of tension since the idea of building a dam on the Nile tributary — The Blue Nile — It began to be discussed in Addis Ababa in the 1960s. In 2011, Ethiopia began building the dam, ignoring Egypt’s objections.

Water and Energy

The stakes are high for both sides after Ethiopia opened the PVV at a patriotic ceremony in September 2025 with an air force flyby designed to evoke pride and demonstrate power in Africa. Ethiopia saw this as the most significant undertaking in its recent history, producing electricity to lift its population out of poverty and push the economy towards growth and development. This has worried Egypt, which depends on the Nile for more than 90% of its water supply.

Now that the dam is running and officially running, Ethiopia could «Cover the crane» During a prolonged drought, damage to the most populous country in the Arab world.

«Without water there is no Egypt, no civilization, no pyramids. It's a matter of life and death.». . . . — Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatta said during a recent visit to Kenya. Sudan, which is also concerned, supports Egypt's position.

But Ethiopia sees it as an encroachment on its sovereignty and an attempt by Egypt to seize the water it is legally entitled to, based on outdated treaties rooted in the colonial era. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali's government views the dam, financed almost exclusively by Ethiopia and its low-income citizens, who have sacrificed whoever could as a key aspect of their domestic legitimacy.

«There are few questions on which Ethiopians are united, but it seems to me that the vast majority support and are proud of this achievement. Mm-hmm.». . . . — According to The Jerusalem Report, Martin Plaut, senior fellow at the Commonwealth Research Institute at the University of London. «I have not seen any discussions from the opposition on the need to reach a different settlement with Egypt.». . . .

Moreover, a return to full-scale war in Tygra — Concerns about this have recently increased — It would make Ethiopia even less compliant about any concessions on the dam, said Areig Elhag, the content editor of the Washington Institute for Middle East Policy.

«Any potential return to war, whether in Tygra or on other domestic fronts, could push Ethiopian leadership to more rigidity on the dam issue to strengthen internal unity and divert attention from domestic crises, reducing flexibility in negotiations and complicating the way to a settlement.». . . . — Elhag told the Report.

Regional fault lines

Tensions in the Horn of Africa, where Israel has interests in containing the Houthis and building influence, are increasing as Egypt and Ethiopia find themselves on different sides of the key hotspots.

These include the horrific civil war in Sudan, where Israel’s ally, the United Arab Emirates, is joining Ethiopia in training Rapid Response Force fighters, according to a recent Reuters report. — The militia, which was accused last week by a UN panel of committing «Genocide acts» in Darfur. Egypt supports the other side in the conflict — Sudanese armed forces charged with war crimes.

Israel's recognition of Somaliland, as well as the intensification of relations with Ethiopia, including the involvement of Israeli arms manufacturers during Foreign Minister Gideon Saar's visit to Addis Ababa last March, also raised concerns in Cairo. Arms manufacturers were mentioned in an interview with Ambassador Abraham Negus, published in Makor Rishon on June 3, 2025, where he said: «We have common challenges and common enemies.». . . .

While Ethiopia has been noticeably silent about Israel's move against Somaliland, Egypt has led the opposition to it as a violation of Somali territorial integrity.

To further escalate tensions, landlocked Ethiopia is pursuing an expansionist foreign policy approach, insisting it must regain access to the Red Sea, which it lost in 1993 when Eritrea gained independence. Abiy calls his country «prisoner of the knot». . . .

Presiding at the African Union summit in February, Abiy highlighted in his opening speech both PVC and access to the sea, highlighting how successful Ethiopia is, pointing to a projected 10.2 per cent growth rate. His message was that it was time for Ethiopia's pride and leadership in Africa.

«Every river we manage, every city we design, and every digital platform we deploy must create resilience, opportunity and dignity.». . . . — He said he was.

As the Horn of Africa is already boiling, resolving the Nile dispute seems more important than ever. Even on a crowded international agenda, this issue is a priority.

To give the talks a chance to succeed, Elhag believes the U.S. should offer Ethiopia incentives this time around. «By guaranteeing Ethiopia access to ports through Somalia, as well as financing power grid development in exchange for water-use arrangements advantageous to Egypt and Sudan». . . .

Diplomacy or leverage

But the key question remains: what is Washington's starting point — To be a genuine mediator or just to support Egypt because it is a key ally needed in Gaza and elsewhere?

Trump's statements point to the latter. «My team and I understand the deep significance of the Nile River for Egypt and its people, and I want to achieve a result that will ensure the water needs of Egypt, the Republic of Sudan and Ethiopia for years to come.». . . . — Trump wrote to Sisi in January.

«The United States reaffirms that no state in the region should unilaterally control the precious resources of the Nile and harm its neighbors.». . . . — He added that.

However, it would be a mistake to make predictions about Trump. He could put more pressure on Ethiopia, change sides or just wash his hands on the Nile issue and move on to another deal.

As for Israel, it would be a mistake to intervene or even speak out on the Nile issue, warns Bruce Maddie-Weizmann, a distinguished professor of Middle East and Africa history at Tel Aviv University.

«Israel has important interests in both countries. The main interest — not to engage in a dispute and not to be noticed in the support of one of the parties». . . . — He said he was. «Israel certainly has an interest in not deteriorating the situation and slipping into armed conflict. It is not in the interest of anyone interested in regional stability.». . . .

Israel's foreign ministry did not respond to a request for Israel's position.