The African Democratic Party (ADC) faces a fierce battle of selfishness, tribal currents and fierce power struggles that could shatter its 2027 presidential ambitions as soon as they take shape.

Luminos Giannamike,  Abuja

Source: Source: .vanguardngr.com

What was supposed to be a moment of consolidation quickly turns into a test of survival. The real threat comes not from outside pressure, but from deepening internal conflicts of personalities, interests, and long-standing suspicions that are now emerging.

Numerous senior sources familiar with the situation reported «Saturday Vanguard»The crisis is largely caused by domestic causes, as competing ambitions and mistrust between key figures continue to deprive the party of the unity needed to fight the ruling party.

«That's the real problem. It's ego, it's power, it's also the question of who should get the party ticket. This is what is tearing them apart.». — said a senior insider.

Two former governors, one defining battle

Two powerful former governors are believed to have become central figures in the unfolding crisis — Influential, calculating and increasingly divergent about who will control the party's future.

Their silent rivalry, insiders said, has exacerbated divisions and repeatedly thwarted attempts to reach consensus on both the leadership structure and the presidential ticket.

One of them, according to sources, has long had doubts about the nomination of a candidate from the southeastern region. While this is often explained by political calculation, such a stance has sparked quiet accusations of ethnic bias and exacerbated regional divisions within the party.

«He (the former governor) never hid it. He believes that some regions should not nominate a president at the moment, and this has become a serious problem.». — said the source.

The second former governor is widely believed to be driven by strong personal ambitions, positioning himself as the most viable candidate capable of enlisting the support of the north, which continues to cause controversy within the party.

«He assumes that everything revolves around him. He believes that only he can win and that the north will rally around him more than around anyone else.». — Another insider said, adding that this person is constantly overestimating himself.

Ego versus strategy

Together, these competing positions have led to an explosive confrontation in which personal ambitions and regional calculations clash, leaving no room for compromise.

«They don’t think about winning, they think about themselves.». — The source complained.

Behind closed doors, insiders say, the fight is no longer about building a winning coalition. She's going for the presidential ticket.

The Old Guard against the new power bloc

The tension extends deeper than the competition at the highest level. There is growing frustration within the party's ranks among longtime members who feel pushed aside by new, high-profile figures reshaping the party's internal balance.

«Some members ask: «We built this structure, so how can people come in at the last minute and take everything?»» — said the source.

This resentment reflects the growing gap between the long-serving leadership and the party’s incoming political heavyweights seeking influence.

«It is not just about specific individuals. It's about ownership of the party and who controls its future.». — Another insider noted, stressing that this is no longer a fight for significance. It's a struggle for control.

Popularity on the outside, resistance on the inside

There is also another fault line. — The gap between public popularity and internal recognition.

Some candidates enjoy strong public support, but insiders say that influence does not always mean support within the party structure.

«Popularity on the outside — It's not the same as acceptance inside. What you see in the public space is different from what happens inside the party.». — One source said.

This mismatch becomes a critical risk ahead of the primaries.

Time is running out.

All this is happening against the backdrop of shrinking electoral deadlines. Instead of consolidation, the party remains embroiled in internal battles, raising serious concerns about its readiness for the upcoming race.

«There's no time. They're still fighting each other when they have to come together.». — The source said, adding that each delay now has its price.

Warnings from within

Senator Victor Umeh did not soften the expressions.

«I thought he (Atiku) would be at an age where he should think about making way for the young, but he says he will run. He has been racing since 2003. We respect him, he is a strong politician with influence. But there comes a time when you say, «I did it, let me support others.»». — said Umeh.

He warned that unbridled ambition could cause long-term damage.

«If they go all-in in the fight, it could get to the point where some people will bleed their noses and the party will suffer.». — He said.

Commenting on reports of talks between candidates, he rejected suggestions of withdrawals or behind-the-scenes deals.

«It's consultation season. It is normal for people seeking the same position to talk to each other. Obi's visit was noble and well-intentioned. They didn't discuss leaving the race.». — He said.

A Lesson from History We Know

Policy analyst Kenny Okolugbo said the fate of the ADC will depend on how it manages competing ambitions, pointing to lessons from past political mergers.

«The ADC should learn from how the APC operated in a merger that many thought was impossible. But to pay tribute to President Tinub, he sacrificed his vice presidential ambitions because he realized that if he didn't, they couldn't run in that election and beat Goodluck Jonathan.». — Okolugbo said.

He warned that failure to manage internal divisions could trigger a breakdown from within.

«Now, in my view as a public affairs analyst, the ADC can only succeed if the ticket goes to Peter Obi and he runs with someone like Kwanquaso. Once Atiku gets that ticket, they will destroy themselves. And this is the reality of the situation.». — Okolugbo said.

The North-South Equation Resurfaces

Okolugbo also pointed to the dynamics of power rotation in Nigeria as a key factor shaping internal calculations. He said: «We have these unwritten agreements that the North will be in power for a while and the South will be in power. — For a while. So if you want to challenge him, you need to find someone from the South. And the strongest candidate at the moment, able to unite everyone, — This is former Governor Peter Obi.».

He stressed the need for a ticket that combines regional appeal with national selectivity.

«If Kwanquaso joins Obi and agrees to a four-year term, then he could have a real chance in 2031. But it all depends on how well the ambitions are managed inside the ADC.». — He added.

New alliances on shaky ground

A picture emerges of a party struggling to hold on. The situation is becoming increasingly volatile with the emergence of new alliances, including the Obi-Kwankwaso movement, which receives support from several blocs and signals shifting sympathies within the opposition.

Justin Ije, a spokesman for the movement, said: «It is more than a political milestone; it is the birth of a coordinated nationwide engine of systemic reform and national renaissance. The movement is open to all Nigerians. We reject the politics of tribalism, regionalism and religious sentiment.».