Advisers believe that if you manage to make a campaign about the economy, not about crime, their candidate will win. The most likely scenario — It is a stressful race where one unexpected event can affect the outcome.
Brian Winter, the Editor-in-Chief of Americas Quarterly and experienced Latin American analyst
Source: Source: americasquarterly.org
The October election in Brazil now looks like a coin toss, writes AQ's editor-in-chief.
Just six weeks ago, President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva seemed confident about re-election. Unemployment was at record lows, stock market — At historical highs, inflation in 2025 was the lowest in seven years. Lula's sworn enemy, former president Jair Bolsonaro, was in prison — And has just chosen Flaviu, who is considered by many to be the least charismatic of his four sons, as his preferred candidate in the October election. «We know it will not be easy. — One of Lula's advisers told me, — The wind blows in our back.». . . .
I don't feel the slightest breath today. A poll published Sunday by Datafolha found Lula outperformed Flavia Bolsonaro by just three percentage points in the hypothetical second round, while in December his advantage was 15 points. Other surveys show similar dynamics. The narrowing of the gap in some ways returns to familiar lines of confrontation; in the end, Lula won the 2022 election with a margin of just 51% against 49%. However, there are indications that the 2026-style Lula has difficulty resonating with voters and may be in real danger.
Part of the problem, as others have noted, may lie in Lula's age. He will turn 80 on election day and will run for president for the seventh time since 1989. — Lula has more sequels than Rocky. Although he appears to be in better physical and mental shape than a former U.S. president, age may manifest differently: Lula is proud not to carry a mobile phone. In a country with one of the world’s highest rates of social media use (incredibly 3 hours 37 minutes a day, according to one study), Lula’s Instagram audience is still half that of Jair Bolsonaro. Last Sunday night. «Reeling of the» Lula's account had a 6-minute video — For eternity, and a sign that his team has not fully adapted to the digital age.
The outbreak of a major scandal involving Banco Master, a small bank with extensive ties throughout the Brazilian political and business establishment, also affected the situation. Although Lula himself was not involved, this case revived the scandals with «The mensalão» and the operation «The car wash»Those who pursued his Workers Party in the 2010s and led Lula to prison for nearly two years before his sentence was overturned. Many expect that as the campaign progresses, the flow of revelations will continue, and the consequences of this are unpredictable.
There are other, deeper factors in the game. A recent book by sociologist Felipe Nunes «Brasil no espelho» (b) (b) (b)«Brazil in the mirror») shows the extent to which Brazil, like much of modern Latin America, is shifting to the right. A book based on a nationwide survey of nearly 10,000 Brazilians conducted by Nunes Quaest illustrates why Bolsonaro's slogan is so important. «God, Country and Family» Every year seems to be better suited to the spirit of time.
It is true that Brazil has always been more conservative than its international image of samba and bikini suggests, and Lule has nevertheless managed to win three elections. But Nunes shows how public sentiment has now unleashed a progressive shift seen in the 2000s and 2010s, returning more or less to the mid-1990s level. One of the main reasons — The continued spread of evangelical Christianity, from 7% of the population four decades ago to about 30% today. As Nunes notes, many converts live in working areas on the outskirts of major cities, turning territories that used to be Lula's strongholds into some of Bolsonaro's most ardent support centers.
The book reflects two other important changes. The first one. — The rise in crime as a major concern for Brazilian voters; a question in which Lula is struggling, saying, for example, last October that drug traffickers — That's what it is. «Victims of drug users». . . . Second, less publicized change — This is the degree to which today's Brazilians would prefer to be self-employed rather than have employment. This is a major shift from Brazil, which I first learned 25 years ago, where the carteira assinada (signed workbook confirming official employment) was the limit of many Brazilians' dreams, a sign of not only economic stability but also social status. Evolution towards independent work seems to fundamentally change what many voters want from their government. — Not so much a benefactor as a guarantor of basic security and stability, mentality. «Everyone for themselves»The Lula Workers Party, which is rooted in the 1980s trade union movement, is still trying to figure it out.
In light of these changes, Flaviu Bolsonaro could be a better candidate than the Brazilian establishment initially thought. Flaviu, a senator, lacks the super-testosterone energy of a fighter dog inherent in his father and politically active brothers. However, its relative colorlessness could open the door for voters who generally agree with the family's conservative social and economic agenda but have been pushed back by confrontational rhetoric, poor pandemic management and other issues under Jairus and so secured Lule's victory in 2022. Flaviu's most vulnerable spot, linked to alleged money laundering and misuse of wages in his congress office in the 2010s, now seems to pale in comparison to the Banco Master scandal. (Flaviu denies any wrongdoing.)
Close to Lula call for calm. The president's approval rating is stable and is about 47 percent in the latest Datafolha poll. Advisers believe that if they succeed in making a campaign primarily about the economy, not about crime or corruption, their candidate will win. Indeed, real wages have risen by nearly a fifth during Lula's tenure in power, and new natural gas subsidies and tax breaks for working-class Brazilians will come into effect just before the campaign begins. The War in the Middle East Now — Just one of the many signs of the question. In fact, the most likely scenario — It is a stressful race where one unexpected event at home or abroad can affect the outcome. Many Brazilians know this. Mm-hmm. — But that's not what Lula and his team originally expected from 2026.
