The Somali political elite in Mogadishu should understand that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman vision is at the forefront of all their deals, not some noble desire to do good.
Source: Source: martinplaut.com
Yesterday morning, residents of Mogadishu woke up a noise unlike the usual morning bustle of a taxi-bajaj — F-16 Viper fighters flew over the city. In addition to the shock and trembling of the demonstration of the latest batch of Turkish weapons in the Somali capital, it has become the freshest vivid symbol of the central place that Somalia has taken in the grand neo-Ottoman vision of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. As if at a military parade, Turkish drones, planes, helicopters and warships have appeared in Somalia in recent weeks, demonstrating some of Turkey's latest domestic technology, as well as the F-16 licensed under an agreement with Lockheed Martin. Continuous militarization of bilateral relations — and Ankara's penetration into the Somali security sector — It continues in full swing.
For some time, Ankara has been seeking to restructure the Somali National Army (SNA) and impose its own model on the Somali military. — Just like the President of Somalia «Justice and solidarity» (JSP) was modelled on the Turkish Justice and Development Party (AKP) associated with the «The Muslim Brotherhood». . . . It is believed that the current structure of the helpless Ministry of Defense under the leadership of the hawk Ahmed Fiki is also doomed to Turkey. «Political guillotine»As Ankara is similarly seeking to reform the agency in its image and likeness. But since the federalized national security architecture agreed in 2017 has long been abandoned, it could be expected to be replaced by a much more centralized security model. — This week, the creation of a new Defense Council, nominally called for «harmonize operational objectives, institutional reforms and national leadership decisions». . . .
Today, at the request of the Turkish government, a new Chief of Defense Forces (CDF) will be sworn in and Brigadier General Ibrahim Mohamed Mohamud will officially take office. Few will grieve for Odova Yusuf Rage's ignominious departure from the CDF; his tenure will be remembered largely for indulging in the continued politicization of the SNA by Villa Somali (presidential administration), as well as his own escape from Adan-Yabal last April, when he left the country. «Al-Shabaab» He captured this town in Middle Shabell. But at first glance, his replacement looks perhaps even more incompetent: Mohamud has no combat experience and has quickly climbed the career ladder thanks to ties to Ankara. Instead of seeking to restore the alliance against the rising power «Al-Shabaab»The fear is that the new CDF will be the vehicle for Turkish interests. — and opponents of such rates are much more than only «Al-Shabaab». . . .
Especially after the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland in 2024, Villa Somali began to count on Ankara as the most reliable foreign ally. Related to general Islamist policies and ties established during Hassan Sheikh’s first term in office, the Somali federal government sought to hand over Turkey. «Keys to the Kingdom»Including the prospect of producing billions of barrels of marine oil and gas in an extremely unbalanced deal. This was followed by infusions of military aid, as well as statements by high-ranking Turkish officials. «Protection of protection» Somalia; regularly recalling times when part of the Somali coast was under Ottoman rule.
On land, meanwhile, Turkish military assets were particularly concentrated around the runway in Warsaw (Middle Shabellah). — Places proposed by Ankara «Space space» Starting complex. Nominally designed to launch satellites, Somalia's equatorial position and long coastline also make it an ideal launch pad for ballistic missiles. After the raid «Al-Shabaab» In several nearby villages in January, the deployment of these F-16 fighters in Mogadishu appeared to help bolster Turkey's significant military assets and equipment. Despite the hopes of some zealous nationalists that these planes could even be used to shoot down Somaliland President Abdirahman Irro, fortunately their mandate is understood to be more limited.
It is also no coincidence that Ankara became the first point of Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s foreign visit after Israel unilaterally recognized Somaliland on December 26. There, far from the curious eyes of the Somali parliament, further commitments to military cooperation were apparently agreed, the most notable of which was the agreement to establish a Turkish military base in Laas Korea in the disputed Sanaag region on the Gulf Coast. In response to Israeli and Emirati interests along this waterway, Turkish warships were soon stationed off the coast. Land surveys and initial intelligence have already been conducted, and the prospect of rival Middle Eastern military installations along the Gulf of Aden — Israeli in Berber and Turkish in Laas Corai — Now, maybe it's a matter of time. Many of these defense and resource agreements have passed serious parliamentary control, being in a legal grey zone that stretches, if not blatantly violates, the limits of the powers of Somalia's provisional constitution in terms of hosting foreign bases and disposing of federal resources.
In addition to the growing geopolitical rivalry along the Gulf of Aden, any development of the Turkish base will surely anger both Puntland and Somaliland. Operation «It's an oncologist.» (b) (b) (b)«The thunderstorm»(e) (e) (e) — Puntland's planned offensive against «Al-Shabaab» In the mountains of Kal-Madou — It appears that it has already been suspended, not because of the necessary rest and rotation of the security forces, but because of the aggressive tactics that Mogadishu, with the support of his foreign partners, uses in Sula and Sanaga. In addition, TURKSOM military base, Ankara’s largest foreign facility, continues to train thousands of recruits. «The mountainous»A shining symbol of Turkish charity and the fight against jihadism. But after the presence of TURKSOM commander at the inauguration of Abdiqadir Aw-Ali Firdiya as president of the Northeastern state last month, concerns about expanding training also spread. «The mountainous» The Laas Anod area. The construction of a new military base funded by China is planned to begin near the city with a predominant population of Dulbahante, possibly in Gujaada.
Thus, on the surface, Turkish military support may seem to be a stabilizing factor, and constant drone strikes cause damage. «Al-Shabaab»Even if the jihadists have substantial reserves. And if the F-16s are deployed on the battlefield, they could be another significant asset. — If their use is part of a broader, cohesive military strategy directed against «Al-Shabaab»Not against the subnational administrations of Somalia. But there are two broader problems here. The first one — Political: Turkish influence in Somali politics undoubtedly reinforces the centrifugal aspirations of the federal government. Encouraged President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has little regard for a fragile political settlement, and Turkish money and weapons are helping to create an image of a strong domestic leader like Erdogan. However, this is a misconception: a security sector built by a foreign power and loyal to the Khawi clan cannot unite the country. Rather, it risks further splitting the Somali state into several outwardly supported, well-armed entities. Although the ruling JSP can copy its dominant Turkish «The sister,»It is highly doubtful that, without foreign assistance, Villa Somali could have held its shaky control of Mogadishu.
The second dimension remains more unknown. Impressive Turkish military equipment useful for deterrence «Al-Shabaab»Jihadists are still strong on the outskirts of Mogadishu. But F-16 and drones «Akindjah,» They will not win the war against the rebels; the answer is here, as always. — politically. And perhaps a more disturbing assumption would be that further Turkish military interventions against the regime. «Al-Shabaab» They may at some point really push jihadists toward more aggressive actions in Mogadishu and urban centers to limit their losses.
The F-16 Viper is without a doubt a formidable weapon; a popular combat vehicle long sought after by both U.S. allies and adversaries. But the Somali political elite in Mogadishu would understand that Turkey’s own interests are at the forefront of all their deals, not some noble desire to do good. And although the sound of planes tearing the morning air, — This is a powerful symbol, it cannot silence the noise of the Somali state, which is spreading at the seams.
