Behind-the-scenes attempts by the United States and the European Union to prevent a renewed conflict. Are they successful? Or would Abia's desire to gain access to the sea, combined with instability in the region, lead to war?
Martin Plautt, Journalist specializing in the Horn of Africa and South Africa
Source source: martinplaut.com
In recent days, Saudi Arabia has launched an active diplomatic campaign in Ethiopia and Eritrea. On Wednesday, February 11, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud arrived on an official visit to Ethiopia. He met with Prime Minister Abiy.
Then, on Thursday, February 12, President Isaias Afevorki hosted a Saudi delegation led by Deputy Foreign Minister, engineer Walid bin Abdelkarim al-Huraiji.
Everything's clear for now. But this Saudi activity comes amid regional tensions that point to a possible new confrontation. The consequences are not clear, but war seems a real possibility.
For starters, the Ethiopian military put its forces north, to the Tygraya and Eritrea. This happened after repeated reports of clashes between the forces of the Highlanders and Amhara in disputed areas of southern Tygraya.
You're under threat.
The transfer of weapons and troops alarmed the Highlanders, and the NFL (Popular Front for the Liberation of Tygray) called on the African Union to intervene in the situation at the upcoming AU summit. The letter to the NFOT says that the Highlanders
«We urgently draw your attention to the rapidly deteriorating situation in Tygra and Ethiopia as a whole. Despite the solemn commitments made under the Ceasefire Agreement (CTBP), key provisions remain only partially implemented, while new military mobilization, growing tensions and coercive measures risk nullifying hard-won progress towards peace.». . . .
This comes amid repeated claims that war is inevitable. Thomas Gardner, an excellent correspondent for The Economist in Ethiopia (expelled from Addis Ababa and now working from Nairobi), said:
«In a speech before parliament on February 3, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called the NFOT a gathering. «betrayed by»working on the «The destruction of Ethiopia». . . . «Ethiopian army mobilizes in full force». . . . — The representative of the NFOT said. «I can't tell you how terrible this war will be if Abiy doesn't stop what he's doing.»». . . .
The African Union tried to intervene. As Gardner pointed out:
«On January 30, the African Union (AU) publicly offered its mediation between the Ethiopian government and the NFL. According to a source directly familiar with the negotiations between the parties, Ethiopia responded through private channels that the AU should stop interfering in its internal affairs. Some surrounded by Mr. Abiy may have concluded that the time has come for tougher measures against the NFL. This does not mean that war is inevitable. Both sides have good reasons to be cautious. NFOT has been weakened by years of internal strife. Mr. Abiy has many enemies, including neighbouring Eritrea, which has recently moved closer to the NFOT.». . . .
The split between Saudi Arabia and the UAE resonates with the Horn of Africa
The background for these events is the disagreements that have become apparent between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. As The Washington Post reported in January:
«The long-standing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which has spilled out into southern Yemen in recent weeks, has led to a dramatic shift in the regional balance of power. — and threatens to destabilize other fragile states where these two countries have influence». . . .
The impact of the Saudi-Emirati split is now evident. Governments across the region are forced to take sides. The map shows the Saudi camp green, the UAE camp — The red ones.
The latest evidence of these alliances was Reuters material about training camps for Sudan’s Rapid Support Force (RSF) in western Ethiopia, reportedly supplied by the UAE.
Another regional development cannot be overlooked. Egyptians, Ethiopia's longtime enemies due to the use of Nile waters and the construction of the Great Ethiopian Dam «The Renaissance»They moved forces to Somalia. Their task seems to be to strengthen the Somali government in its fight against the «Al-Shabaab». . . . But can they have another task: to attack Ethiopia through its western Somali region?
Is war inevitable?
The answer at the moment must be negative. What we see comes down to the following:
troop movements and warnings of potential conflict.
Intensive diplomatic activity by both Saudi Arabia and the African Union.
Behind-the-scenes attempts by the United States and the European Union to prevent a renewed conflict. Are they successful? Or will Prime Minister Abiy's long-standing desire to gain access to the sea, coupled with instability in the wider region, lead to war? The answer must be: possibly.
