In a region already crowded with outside players, the U.S. risks escalating tensions.
On Friday night,23 January 2026 — Appropriately.) President Trump, in a letter to Egyptian President al-Sisi, attempted to renew U.S. efforts to mediate the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the waters of the Nile.

Michelle Gavin, the Senior Researcher at the Political Studies Division in Africa

Source: Source: www.cfr.org

Protracted differences over water distribution, which were governed by the 1959 agreement between Egypt and the Sudan, which simply excluded Ethiopia and other coastal states, escalated sharply after Ethiopia built the Great Dam of the Ethiopian Revival. — A hydropower project vital to the development of this energy-deficient country of more than 110 million people. Egypt, for which the Nile is a major source of fresh water, sees the GERD, operating at Ethiopian discretion, as an existential threat to its population.

The agreement would be much preferable to the mutual distrust and periodic rhetoric of threats that characterize the current relationship between Egypt and Ethiopia. However, the US is not seen as an honest mediator when it comes to GEP. Unsurprisingly, al-Sisi welcomed the White House's involvement as in Trump's first term, the U.S. proposed an agreement acceptable to Egypt, but not to Ethiopia, and President Trump supported Egyptian threats to use military force to destroy the dam. It's also easy to see why General Burhan, who heads the Sudan Armed Forces coalition, was equally welcoming. SAV relies on Egypt's support in its disastrous conflict with former associates — Infamous Rapid Support Force (RSF).

But it is for these reasons that the U.S. initiative may be less desirable in Ethiopia. Pride for the GERD is one of the most unifying feelings in the country, and with many ongoing insurrections as well as growing tensions with Eritrea and Somalia, Prime Minister Abi Ahmed is desperately needed for any cohesion. His desire to gain access to the sea and his government's close relationship with the United Arab Emirates temporarily combined a range of forces focused on curbing Ethiopia's ambitions. The long quest for Somaliland recognition has also become a platform for rivalry, and the Saudi-Emirati split, where Egypt is firmly in the Saudi camp, is part of the background for this renewed focus on the GERD.

Oddly enough, the Nile water dispute was among those «Wars of war»Trump said he stopped in his first year in power. It is clear that his desire to declare victory is not subject to chronology or reality. But with so many forces seeking to strengthen their positions in the already fragile Horn of Africa, «Bulldozer diplomacy» It risks crossing all borders and triggering the logic of escalation. The worst suffering will fall to Africans, whose interests are too often seen as secondary to many outside powers seeking to strengthen their influence in the Horn of Africa.