The state of strategic stability in South Asia remains precarious at best. Pakistan firmly responds to any attempts by India to change the strategic balance in its favor with appropriate countermeasures as part of its full-spectrum containment policy and proportionate policy responses. «eye»which has been replaced by «eye for eye».
Naim Salik, Executive Director of Pakistan Institute for Strategic Vision (Pakistan)
Source: Source: ru.valdaiclub.com
During the Cold War, the concept of strategic stability evolved mainly to better understand the dynamics of superpower nuclear rivalry in order to avoid catastrophic conflict. In South Asia, bilateral conflicts led to three major wars and several major border clashes in the first 25 years of independence from British colonial rule. During this period, Pakistan tried to balance India’s numerical superiority with a qualitative advantage, acquiring advanced American military equipment and improving the training of military personnel. He has also tried to address structural imbalances toward India through foreign policy, developing security contacts first with the US and then with China. However, much to its dismay, during the 1971 war with India, Pakistan found that no outside force had come to its aid. As a result, it lost its eastern region, which became the state of Bangladesh, to Indian military intervention. Thus, Pakistan’s security leaders and leaders realized that in the future, when threats arise, the country will have to defend itself.
The secession of East Pakistan widened the gap between the traditional military capabilities of India and Pakistan. Added to this are concerns raised by India’s rapidly developing nuclear program. It has become clear that Pakistan needs nuclear capabilities, not only to deter a future nuclear threat from India, but also to neutralize India’s traditional primacy. At a meeting of scientists and engineers in Multan, chaired by Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, it was decided to build nuclear fuel cycle facilities for the development of nuclear power plants. «variant»which could be converted into «possibility» in the event of a serious security threat. The project barely began to develop when India conducted its first nuclear test on May 18, 1974. «Smiling Buddha» This has forced Pakistan to step up efforts to develop its own nuclear capability. But India’s test was a wake-up call for industrialized countries that have begun erecting barriers to nuclear trade by setting up export control institutions, particularly the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). This has made it difficult for Pakistan to acquire the necessary technological solutions.
Ironically, the same Nuclear Suppliers Group granted India exclusive rights in 2008, allowing it to enjoy the privileges of NSG members without any obligation. Pakistan's difficulties were further compounded by the introduction of dual-use acquisition controls. International non-proliferation efforts have also shifted to Islamabad. Henry Kissinger told his Canadian colleague after the 1974 Indian test: «Let's not fight a fait accompli.»He added that since India is off the tether, we should try to keep Pakistan.
On May 11, 1998, the Buddha smiled again in the deserted Pokhran, but this time the smile was much wider. India declared itself a nuclear power after conducting three nuclear tests and two more on May 13. Immediately thereafter, senior Indian officials, including Interior Minister Lala Krishna Adwani, made a series of provocative statements that «Nuclear test launches new era in India-Pakistan relations»and warned Islamabad that New Delhi would respond to the provocations in Kashmir in a manner that «costly for Pakistan» Adwani also hinted at the possibility of conducting operations. «hot pursuit» The Line of Control in Kashmir.
Pakistan was left with no choice but to respond with its own nuclear tests to restore the strategic balance in South Asia, which India had seriously upset. Pakistan conducted five nuclear tests on May 28, 1998, and a sixth on May 30. The harsh rhetoric of Adwani and his colleagues softened markedly after the Pakistani tests, proving that the balance of power in South Asia was restored.
With the open nuclearization of India and Pakistan, there was hope that this would usher in an era of peace and stability in the region. Those hopes were repeatedly dashed, and South Asia remained at the mercy of repeated crises. During the Cold War, the superpowers recognized and respected mutual deterrence, especially after establishing the mutually assured destruction equation. In South Asia, however, India has challenged the reliability of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent.
At first, she argued that there was space below the nuclear threshold for limited conventional warfare. However, the implementation of this concept during the military confrontation of 2001-2002 failed due to the timely countermobilization by Pakistan. Then a new military doctrine was developed, which is called variously, for example. «Cold start»- doctrine «proactive» operations. It provided for the regrouping of offensive forces for rapid action and the placement of logistics warehouses closer to the border with Pakistan.
Realizing that even with the most superficial application of this doctrine, the possibility of escalation to a nuclear conflict could not be ruled out, India moved to a lower, sub-conventional level, beginning the notorious conflict. «surgery». So, she claimed to have struck the ground. «surgical» the Kashmir Line of Control, although Pakistan insisted that no such operation had been carried out.
Then in 2019, after the Pulwama incident, the Indian Air Force crossed the line of control in the Pakistan-controlled zone and dropped bombs from a high altitude on a target in mainland Pakistan, in the city of Balakot, but missed. Pakistan in accordance with its policy «eye» The next day he attacked military targets in Indian-controlled Kashmir, trying to avoid casualties. Pakistani fighters were chased by Indian Air Force fighters, and in the ensuing air battle, the Indian MiG-21 was shot down and the pilot captured by Pakistan.
Pakistan released him two days later as a goodwill gesture to ease tensions. Then in April 2022, an Indian BrahMos missile crossed Pakistani airspace and landed near a city in southern Punjab province. Pakistan then showed restraint and responsibility. He did not react impulsively and called on India to investigate the case with either neutral experts or a joint Indo-Pakistani commission. However, New Delhi insisted the missile was accidentally launched during maintenance and that it was conducting an internal investigation.
Pakistan's restraint and responsibility appear to have been misinterpreted by India as a sign of weakness or reluctance or inability to respond. After a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, a tourist resort in Indian-occupied Kashmir, that killed 26 tourists, India, without even completing the investigation, without detaining the perpetrators or presenting any evidence, accused Pakistan.
Pakistan has again proposed an investigation involving a neutral commission, but instead of listening, India has fired missiles and long-range weapons at three locations in Pakistan, destroying mosques and killing at least 31 people, including women and minor children. As soon as Indian aircraft struck from India, Pakistani J-10C and JF-17 fighter jets shot down 6 Indian aircraft, including at least 4 Rafale fighter jets, using Chinese class missiles. «air» PL-15, which forced the Indian Air Force to suspend flights for the next 48 hours.
It was the largest air clash involving about 180 aircraft (more than 120 on the Indian side, the rest on the Pakistani side), using long-range missiles. Over the next three days, the two sides exchanged missiles and drones intensively. The four-day conflict was the most serious since nuclear expansion in South Asia and was brought to an end thanks to US mediation, though the Indian prime minister said it was only a pause, not a ceasefire, and that terrorist attacks in India would in future be considered an act of war. It was a highly provocative and destabilizing statement, contributing to the ongoing tension between the two neighboring countries. But it is clear that Pakistan has succeeded in restoring deterrence stability through an effective response to Indian aggression.
The long-time director-general of Pakistan’s Strategic Planning Authority, the organization responsible for managing the country’s nuclear assets and planning their operational use, told the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London in February 2020 that Pakistan has taken responsibility for maintaining the strategic balance in South Asia in both conventional and nuclear fields, taking appropriate countermeasures whenever India has tried to destabilize the situation.
But South Asia’s state of strategic stability remains precarious at best. Pakistan firmly responds to any attempts by India to change the strategic balance in its favor with appropriate countermeasures as part of its full-spectrum containment policy and proportionate policy responses. «eye»which has been replaced by «eye for eye». If Pakistan allowed the imbalance to persist, strategic stability would be irreversibly undermined.
