Victor Heifer What to expect from the new president of Chile.

Source: Source: https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/analytics/novyy-prezident-chili-obeshchaet-navesti-poryadok/ 

Photo Credit: KOMMERSANT.RU/DAILY

Chile's elections were held calmly, without serious violations and contesting the outcome. The counting of votes in the second round was carried out as always promptly: the result became clear in a few hours. The losing candidate, Jeannette Hara, acknowledged Jose Antonio Cast's victory, confirming the clarity and legitimacy of the electoral process.

The victory of H.A. Cast, who four years ago lost in the second round to current President Gabriel Borich, can be considered a revenge. It provided a number of reasons that can be divided into factors of success of the right and failure of the center-left. First, while the victory of the right fits into the overall Latin American trend, Chileans voted primarily for domestic reasons, rather than looking back at Argentina or the US. They have a certain autonomy, and this trend has remained unchanged for more than a century of political history.

In Chile, no president has handed over power to a successor from his own political party or coalition since 2006. Political pendulum — Alternating left and right in power — It became a systemic norm.

Third, the campaign’s main themes were the rise of crime and uncontrolled migration (hundreds of thousands of migrants, including illegal migrants). H.A. Cast clearly promised «Setting up order» and pursue a tougher policy, which has found a response from voters. However, it is unclear how the newly elected president implements his promise to the electorate.

Fourth, the third force factor contributed to the victory of the right. In the 2021 election, the majority of economist Franco Parisi’s supporters supported the center-left in the second round. According to the results of the vote in December 2025, their votes mostly went to H.A. Kastu or were spoiled.

Кроме того, электорат разочаровался в левоцентристской коалиции. Большие надежды, связанные с президентством Габриэля Борича, во многом не оправдались. Он не смог выполнить ключевые обещания, что разочаровало его сторонников, в частности, провести необходимые мероприятия по обеспечению безопасности.

Неудача правительства Г. Борича в попытке сменить конституцию, унаследованную от эпохи Пиночета, — одна из причин его низкого рейтинга. Референдумы по обновлению конституции, проведенные дважды в 2022 г. и 2023 г. уже после введения обязательного голосования, привлекли новых избирателей, обычно не симпатизирующих левоцентристам. При Х.А. Касте этот вопрос, вероятно, будет надолго отложен или, по крайней мере, не окажется в числе приоритетных.

Ж. Хара, несмотря на достижения на посту министра, в глазах избирателей символизировала континуитет и преемственность с непопулярным правительством Г. Борича. Х.А. Каст, напротив, олицетворял новое слово в политике. Также ее членство в Коммунистической партии стало психологическим барьером для граждан — чилийцам свойственна «родовая травма», так как они помнят неудачи правительства «Народного единства» в начале 1970-х гг. и последующий переворот А. Пиночета и опасаются возвращения коммунистов к власти, несмотря на то, что современная партия значительно отличается от своей предшественницы.

However, about 40% of votes — A serious blow to the future for J. Hara. It will probably show itself in national politics.

Unlike many other regional leaders — L.I. Lula da Silva in Brazil, G. Petro in Colombia, H. Milla in Argentina — H.A. Cast will have a strong support in the National Congress. His coalition won a majority in the House of Deputies and about half of the Senate seats. This gives him a unique opportunity to pursue his policies without facing a permanent parliamentary crisis. If J. Hara had won, she wouldn't have had that kind of support. From the new president you can expect the following course in a number of areas:

• The economy. Fundamental changes in the neoliberal model — The most open in the region — Not expected. All the governments of Chile have worked within its framework for the past 35 years. There may be a slight shift towards supporting big business and some reduction in social programs, but social policy will not completely disappear.
• Domestic policy. The main challenge — fulfilling the populist promise to expel up to 300,000 migrants. The practical implementation of this plan is unclear and is likely to remain only partially implemented. Paradoxically, many Venezuelan migrants opposed to the left could vote for Cast, but they could be the target of his migration policy. The president has the ability to form a one-party government, but for sustainability he can attract traditional right-wingers.
• Foreign policy. No sharp turns are expected. Chile Historically — Not an anti-American (although not a pro-American) country, and relations with the U.S. are likely to get a little closer as H.A. Cast sympathizes with D. Trump. Key question — relations with China, Chile's main trading partner. Any serious cooling on ideological grounds would cause enormous damage to the Chilean economy, so pragmatism would likely prevail.
• Relations with Russia. Cardinal changes are not expected either. Chile under G. Borice took the most pro-Ukrainian position in the region and probably H.A. Cast will continue this line. Accession to unilateral restrictive measures against Russia is not foreseen, as Chile traditionally supports only UN sanctions. Trade and economic ties between our countries are insignificant, so there should also be no change.

If the new president succeeds in fighting crime and bringing order, he will have strong public support for other initiatives. If the security situation does not improve, the frustration and fall of its rating can be as rapid.

Importance for the region

The trend towards the strengthening of the right forces in the region is indeed observed: the victories of the right in Argentina, Honduras, Ecuador, high chances of success in the upcoming elections in 2026 in Colombia and Peru. The exception was Brazil, where the outcome of the election was decided by a personal confrontation between L. Lula and J. Bolsonaro. However, the essence of the current right turn — Not in classical conservatism, but in the case of «A hard hand.». . . . Voters are increasingly willing to sacrifice some democratic rights for security assurances, like El Salvador's Nayib Buquele policy.