Much of Nigeria’s modern history, which gained independence from Britain in 1960, is inextricably linked to acute political instability. Short periods of civilian rule were replaced by military regimes in the face of chronic weakness in key state institutions. However, it would seem only another, Democratic Transit of 1999The fragile consensus of the military elites of the North and the civilian elites of the South has become unprecedentedly long-term: in the 26 years of the existence of the Fourth Republic in Nigeria, the democratic continuity of power has never been violated.
Kurtsev Ivan Sergeevich, The M.S. program «Africa in the focus of Russian interests»
IMI MGIMO of the Russian Foreign Ministry
Source: Source: africaportal.com
Without exaggeration, over 7 electoral cycles in more than 200 million Nigeria established a wide, uninterrupted and intensive electoral process – a phenomenon is not trivial not only by African but also by global standards.
In Nigeria, with 37 subjects (36 states and the federal metropolitan area), multi-million multi-ethnic and multi-religious populations, active domestic political struggle is permanent. General electionsIn the course of which the population elects a president (no more than 2 terms), governors (no more than 2 terms), senators (Senate) and deputies of the lower house (House of Representatives) of the National Assembly, only partially fix the balance of power for the next 4 years, both due to the ingrained practice of transitions of politicians from one camp to another, and because of the fact that the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan has been elected. violations of the electoral cycleIn 8 states, the election of governors lags from national for a period of 9 to 42 months.
In other words, Nigeria has seen numerous markers throughout the electoral cycle to track both perturbations among elites, including party transitions and promoted narratives, and changes in the preferences of the wider masses, including the election of governors at 8. «The Deviant Girls» in the states.
General elections of 2023: a brief overview of the balance of power
For the first time During the existence of the Fourth Republic in Nigeria, the electoral campaign was not built around the struggle of the two main candidates. Under conditions when the incumbent head of state Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) could no longer participate in elections due to constitutional restrictions, four influential political figures entered the race for the presidency of Nigeria.
On the part of the ruling APC party, the election race led Bola Ahmed Tinubu - a native of Lagos, who twice occupied the governor's seat and accumulated substantial political capital as a state. «The King's Maker»The Action Congress, which he created in 2006, became a platform for election campaigns of a number of candidates for governors and presidents. In 2013, Tinubu, at the head of his brainchild, acted as one of the founders of the APC and supported Muhammad Buhari in the process of his nomination. By 2023, in nearly three decades of Nigerian politics, Bola Tinubu had established close contacts with many heavyweights from the world of politics and business, as well as gaining broad voter support in southwestern Nigeria.
The most experienced opponent of Bola Tinubu – the representative of the ruling party – in the elections of 2023 was undoubtedly considered Atik Abubakar A true veteran of Nigerian politics who has already made five unsuccessful attempts to get the highest office in the country. In 1999-2007, he held the position of Vice President of Nigeria, and after a series of failures in the 2010s, he intended to take over – now at the head of the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP). A native of the state of Adamawa from northern Nigeria, Atik Abubakar, like his opponent from the APC, is a representative of the Muslim part of the country with the only difference that Bola Tinubu - a native of Lagos (South) - could count on wider support for the predominantly Christian South. The fact is that the equal representation of the South and the North in the political advance is the cornerstone of the fragile balance of power in Nigeria, and therefore after eight years of rule. «Northern North» Buhari was Tinubu who gained an advantage in terms of maintaining the status quo.
Another applicant became Peter Obey and - a native of the banking sector, after a series of trials, who managed to obtain and retain the post of Governor of the state of Anambra for two terms (2006-2014). Demonstrating readiness to adapt to changing realities, Both managed to participate in the election campaigns on behalf of at least three political parties, and in 2023 he acted as a leader. «The banners of» Labour Party (LP) At the same time, the stronghold of Peter Obi’s influence remained southeast, including the native state of Anambra and neighboring predominantly Christian regions.
Finally, the dark horse race became Rabi Quanquaso - a politician who has enormous popularity in his native state of Cano (governor in 1999-2003 and in 2011-2015) and, at the same time, managed to achieve some success at the federal level (Minister of Defense in 2003-2007). Unable to win the intra-party primaries in 2014 (APC) and 2018 (PDP) «The Madugugu» (b) (b) (b)«Leadership Leader» He decided to speak on behalf of the small New Nigeria People's Party (NNPP). Although Quanquaso's chances of winning were assessed with skepticism from the outset, support in Nigeria's second-most populous state, and «Rule of law» The winner must gain at least 25% of the votes in 2/3 of the states - caused the importance of his figure in terms of the final alignment of forces.
General Election of 2023: Results
Despite stubborn rivalry among political elites, the already low turnout in Nigeria’s presidential election in 2023 renewed its record. 29% About 25 million of the 87 million voters who voted on February 25, 2023.
Victory in elections Bol Tinub won, receiving about 8.79 million (36.6%) votes. Atik Abubakar, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwanquaso scored 6.98 million (29.1%), 6.1 million (25.4%) and 1.5 million (6.2%), respectively.
In turn, during the Election of GovernorsOn March 18, 2023, in 28 states, the ruling APC received 16 seats in 10 states that had passed the opposition PDP. In two other regions – the states of Kano and Abija – the winners were candidates from NNPP and LP, respectively.
In the Senate - the upper house of the National Assembly - 59 out of 109 seats (absolute majority) It's gone away. APC; another 36 seats received PDP. 8 senators were elected from the LP ranks; and another 5 were from small parties.
Finally, in the House of Representatives, parliamentary mandates were distributedAs follows: APC received 176 of the 360 seats; PDP retained the second line with 119 mandates; LP and NNPP - 35 and 19 seats, respectively. The remaining 11 seats went to small parties.
The main domestic political trends of 2023-2025
So, Bola Tinub’s victory and APC’s success brought to the fore several notable aspects.
First, for the first time in history, both President and Vice President Kashim Shettima were representatives of Nigeria’s Muslim community, which in theory partially violated the model of proportional representation of the Muslim North and Christian South.
Secondly, within the ruling party there was a painless transit of leadership from a native of the North Buhari to a native of the South Tinub. This fact highlights the flexibility of party structures in Nigeria that are not linked to specific political figures.
Third, the success of Bola Tinub and the APC was not absolute. For example, in his native for Tinub Lagos, the majority of votes in the presidential election was received by his opponent Peter Obi, who also won in the federal capital territory (Abuja).
At the same time, maintaining control over the federal level of power and predominance in most states allowed the newly elected president and the ruling party to not act. «from scratch.»It is based on the positions gained since 2015 by the administration of Mohammad Buhari.
On the contrary, the already fragmented opposition, whose key figures – Peter Obi and Atik Abubakar – have repeatedly changed party affiliation to realize personal ambitions, has faced growing internal instability. From mid-2024. It's coming out.The trend towards a gradual outflow of opposition senators and deputies to the APC. By mid-June 2025, the latter had already controlled 68 seats in the Senate (+9 relative to March 2023) and 207 in the House of Representatives (+31 relative to March 2023).
Amid weakening and intra-party squabbles in the PDP and LP, leading politicians in the opposition camp turned to an alternative scenario - the creation of a temporary and limited degree of involvement, but including the most influential coalition figures designed to ensure the defeat of the APC and Bola Tinub in the elections in 2027.
Since July 2025, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is a small party that did not claim any major success in 2023 (the party won only two seats in the House of Representatives). It has become A platform for joint action by politicians united by the desire to undermine the apparent hegemony of the APC and Tinub. Among the new members of the ADC, as well as those who expressed support for the opposition coalition, were: David David David - retired Brigadier General and President of the Senate in 2007-2015; Atik Abubakar and Peter Obi are politicians who collectively gained 54.5% in the 2023 presidential election. Rotimi Amachi - Former Governor of Rivers (2007-2015) and former Minister of Transport (2015-2022), which became the second in the APC primaries in 2022; Nasir El-Rufai Former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (2003-2007) and former Governor of Kaduna (2015-2023).
How are things changing?
Thus, in the context of the next – third row – victory of the APC and its candidate in the general elections in front of the most influential figures in the opposition was the question of the need to develop a new more effective electoral tactics.
In 2015 and 2019, the election campaigns were held according to one scenario – the confrontation of two large political blocs, each of which nominated one candidate for the presidential election. During this time, several figures stood out among the political elites who could not prevail in the internal party primaries, but invariably striving to realize their ambitions. As a result, in 2023, three political heavyweights converged on the political arena, although, as noted earlier, this number can be brought to four, taking into account the extremely popular in the state of Cano Rabiu Kwanquaso. To realize their aspirations, the candidates relied on several political platforms, moving away from virtually bipartisan logic.
However, the success of Bol Tinub and the subsequent consolidation of power with the outflow of senators and deputies from the ranks of the opposition parties prompted Atik Abubakar, Peter Obi and several other political heavyweights to declare their readiness to unite on the basis of the ADC for maximum opposition to the current administration. It is not difficult to guess that in the new realities come to the fore (1) the ability of ambitious oppositionists. «You're getting along.» 2) the reaction of the PDP and, to a lesser extent, the LP to the abrupt strengthening of the ADC as a new center of opposition and, finally, 3) the reaction of the ruling APC to a new threat.
