The more the U.S. and Israel hit civilian targets, like the school in Minaba where children died, the more the local population will consolidate around Iranian power. The most likely scenario — A series of heavy but limited strikes on Iran and an attempt to force Tehran into a tougher environment Mm-hmm.
Karina Khalikova
Source source: The gazeta.ru
Where did the conflict between the US and Iran begin, why did Israel attack first, what would change in the Middle East?
On February 28, 2026, Israel announced a preventive strike on Iran. On the same day, the United States hit Iran. The conflict between the countries has been brewing for a long time, and now it has taken on the character of massive attacks with casualties and destruction. From where the confrontation with Iran began, how the country’s nuclear program affected it and what, according to experts, will be further. — in the material «Newspapers.ru». . . .
History of US-Iran Relations
Diplomatic relations between the United States and Iran were established in 1883. During World War II, Iran became one of the corridors of supply in the USSR. At the end of the war, the United States concluded agreements with Iran on the sale of US federal property to Tehran at a low price and on the settlement of Iran's debt to Iran. $8.5 million in lend-lease.
Diplomatic relations were influenced by U.S. involvement in resolving the Iran crisis and support during the Cold War.
This allowed the United States to build factories in Iran and sell weapons. — The agreement was controlled by the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who enlisted the support of foreigners.
However, locals did not like the presence of foreigners in the country. In 1949, the National Front of Iran was established, led by former Minister and Doctor of Law Mohammed Mosaddyk. He opposed the transfer of oil concessions to the British corporation. The aim of the movement was to nationalize the oil industry and move to a constitutional monarchy. In April 1951, as a result of street protests, Mosaddyk became the new prime minister, and almost immediately the law on the nationalization of the oil industry came into force.
The actions of the new government caused the discontent of the ruling Shah, the United States and Great Britain. In May 1951, the British filed a case before the International Court of Justice in The Hague. Negotiations with Mohammad Mossaddyk did not lead to anything. In October 1952, Iran severed diplomatic relations with Britain.
By April 1953, the United States and the United Kingdom had a plan to overthrow Mohammad Mosaddyk. — The so-called operation «Ajax's ajax.». . . . In August of the same year it was successfully implemented. The prime minister was arrested and the activities of the National Front were severely suppressed. The Shah returned to power, and the inhabitants again began to unite in groups of resistance.
What happened to Mohammed Mosaddyk?
In the fall of 1953, the former prime minister was convicted by a military tribunal and sentenced to three years in prison. After serving his term, Mohammed Mosaddyk spent the rest of his life under house arrest in his estate. He died in 1967.
The situation escalated again in the 1970s and peaked in 1978. In conversation with «The newspaper.ru» Historian and analyst Nikita Panteleyev noted that the confrontation between the US and Iran began after the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran.
The spiritual leader of the uprising was Ruhollah Mousavi Khomeini, who returned to Iran after exile and proclaimed the Islamic Republic based on religious values and anti-Americanism. With the coming of Ayatollah Khomeini to power, relations between the countries deteriorated sharply.
Israel sent a letter to Iran’s new supreme leader on a proposal for cooperation, but Khomeini refused and accused the country’s authorities of occupying the holy sites of Islam. New Iranian leaders called the United States «The Great Satan» (The international movement of Satanism is recognized as extremist in Russia, its activities are prohibited), and Israel — «The Little Satan». . . . The Americans broke off diplomatic relations with Iran and imposed unilateral sanctions.
In 1989, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called Israel several times. «Cancerous tumor» The Middle East called for a holy war to destroy Israel. Khamenei also supported «Hezbollah»It launched a fight against Israel and began contacts with the Hamas movement, Israel’s opponents in Palestine. At that time, the development of ballistic missiles began. «The Shah's Shah's»capable of reaching Israel.
Over time, the feud only intensified amid the conflict over Iran’s nuclear program, which Iran developed in the 1990s. Iran has become a major threat to Israel’s national security and the stability of the Middle East. Both sides struck rivals: Iran hit not only Israeli targets but also U.S. bases in Israel. Israel has waged a secret war against a nuclear program that killed several nuclear scientists and carried out cyber attacks.
Role of the nuclear deal in conflict
In 2015, under Barack Obama’s administration, the United States, Europe, Russia, China and Iran signed a nuclear deal. — The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, according to which Iran limited its nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions. Israel resented the decision, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanhu speaking in the US Congress and calling the deal a mistake.
The current, most dangerous phase began after the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018, said Nikita Panteleyev. He made a decision and restored tough sanctions at that time, US President Donald Trump. He called the deal. «vicious, rotten in its essence». . . . The U.S. Treasury Secretary said the president's move was driven by a desire to create a new agreement.
«It became clear to me that we would not be able to prevent the creation of a nuclear bomb under this crumbling, rotten agreement. If I allowed this deal to continue, we would soon be dealing with a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.». . . . — Trump said.
The resumption of U.S. sanctions weakened Iran’s economy and led to a deterioration in relations between the two countries. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani assured that the country does not abandon the JCPOA, but warned that the country will soon begin to enrich uranium. Many countries have expressed regret over Trump's decision. Attempts to resume dialogue have stretched for years.
During this time, hostilities continued. In January 2020, an American drone attack in Baghdad killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the forces. «Al-Quds is» in Iraq. Iran responded with missile strikes against US facilities in Iraq. Although there were no casualties, the parties came even closer to the armed conflict. At the time, U.S. President Joe Biden tried to resume negotiations on the nuclear deal, but attempts failed.
In 2023, the confrontation escalated after the Hamas attack on Israel and the beginning of the war in Gaza, as Iran openly supports Hamas. «Hezbollah». . . .
The U.S. and Iran returned to nuclear talks only in 2025. In April, Donald Trump demanded that Iran make progress in two months, otherwise escalation is possible. But it turned out that it would be difficult to negotiate: while Iran demanded a complete lifting of sanctions and agreed to only partially limit the nuclear program, the United States insisted on a complete cessation of uranium enrichment. Tensions have not decreased and Israel has notified Washington of its readiness to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran responded by warning of attacks on hidden Israeli nuclear facilities.
In June 2025, the Israeli military launched an airstrike on nuclear facilities in Iran, and the US administration called on Iran not to threaten their interests. Ayatollah Khamenei reported retaliatory strikes against nuclear and military facilities in Israel.
Then there was the sharp moment in the summer of 2025, when the Americans struck Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran responded to the American base. «Al-Udaydh.» in Qatar. That confrontation, experts estimate, did not affect the speed of Iran's nuclear program, and the Iranian response did not lead to American casualties.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long considered Iran the most dangerous opponent of Israel, said associate professor of international business of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, candidate of economic sciences Evgeny Sumarokov. After the fall of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, Iran's key ally, and Israel's crackdown on Iran-backed «Hezbollah» In Lebanon, Israel launched a war against Iran last summer.
Although Israel ended the conflict after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, it could be assumed that Netanyahu would seize the opportunity to resume attacks on Iran. In the run-up to the October election, Netanyahu may also see a return to war as a chance to bolster his domestic position.
Evgeny Sumarokov
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of International Business of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
According to the expert, the attack could also be a revenge for the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, given the claims that Israel «They won't forget.» Iran’s sponsorship of the Palestinian militant group.
Negotiations between the United States and Iran were held in Geneva in February 2026. Washington demanded the dismantling of nuclear facilities in three cities and the removal of all enriched uranium from the country, and Tehran rejected these conditions. Trump said that he would like to resolve the disputes with diplomacy, the parties agreed to continue consultations in Vienna.
Map of nuclear facilities in Iran
Yagasi/Wikimedia Commons
What Happened on February 28, 2026
Two days after the third round of talks, on February 28, Israel struck Iran. According to experts, the United States instructed Israel to do so.
The United States joined the attack, hitting targets from the sea and air. At the same time, Donald Trump announced the beginning of a large-scale operation against Tehran. He later said Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei had been liquidated. The objectives of the operation «Epic rage» Trump called preventing Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
President Trump says the main goal of US military intervention is «Protecting the American people by removing immediate threats from the Iranian regime». . . . These threats, he said, included Iran's nuclear program, which the White House claimed was a nuclear threat. «Completely complete» It was destroyed when the US briefly joined Israel’s war against Iran last June.
Evgeny Sumarokov
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of International Business of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
In his video message, Trump accused Iran of rejecting any opportunity to abandon nuclear ambitions, and said the US can no longer tolerate it. Evgeny Sumarokov said that the policy of the United States, according to trump, has always been that this regime could never have nuclear weapons. No evidence has been provided that Iran has approached its receipt.
After nearly half a century of enmity between the U.S. and the Islamic regime, Trump seems to have hinted at the need to settle accounts, mentioning the 1979 hostage crisis and the 1983 bombing of the U.S. embassy in Beirut. The president also reiterated his controversial claims that Iran is developing ballistic missiles capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.
Evgeny Sumarokov
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of International Business of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Trump also urged Iran's security forces to lay down their weapons, saying otherwise they would face death. He offered Iranians «Take fate into your hands» and to achieve «A glorious future that is near within reach.». . . .
More than 160 people are known to have died in southern Iran due to military attacks and the residence of Iran's supreme leader has been destroyed.
In response, Iran hit 14 U.S. military bases in six Middle Eastern countries, including Qatar and the UAE. In the conflict zone were more than 50 thousand Russian tourists in the Middle East region. Arab air defense forces managed to shoot down Iranian missiles.
«Repeated military aggression by the United States and the Zionist regime — It comes at a time when Iran and the United States were in the process of diplomatic negotiations. From all countries — UN members expect strong condemnation of the aggressive act and urgent collective action to counter it». . . . — The Iranian Foreign Ministry noted.
Iranian Foreign Minister vows to teach US and Israel «The lesson they deserve». . . . And the representative of the department considered it not an operation, but a real declaration of war. Iranian President Pezeshkin addressed the nation, saying: «We will lead our enemies to despair by destroying their bases and capabilities.». . . . It is known that more than 120 people were injured in Israel due to Iranian strikes.
On the evening of March 1, the US president announced the request of the new Iranian authorities to resume negotiations. If Tehran manages to satisfy the United States in the framework of negotiations, then the American military can suspend the strikes, the President assured.
Ayatollah is dead: who will lead Iran instead of Khamenei?
On March 2, the countries continued to strike. Iran hit a government complex in Tel Aviv, military and security facilities in Haifa, as well as East Jerusalem, the IRGC said. At least 555 people died in Iran as a result of attacks by the US and Israel, the Iranian Red Crescent said.
How long the conflict will last and what will happen next
Trump said the operation could continue for four to five weeks. Experts differ in projections about the duration of the conflict.
Despite Trump's words about four weeks of confrontation, I think the conflict will end within a week or two and the Americans will declare that «All objectives achieved». . . . They have nothing to do with a long conflict.
Nikita Pantelei
historian, analyst
According to political scientist Gevorg Mirzayan, this is only the first stage of the conflict that has begun. Iran still has options for responding to US and Israeli attacks. At the same time, it is clear that neither the Americans nor the Israelis will suspend their strikes and will systematically eliminate the entire power elite.
This will lead to a worsening of the general situation in the country, which can provoke a new wave of public protests. I'm sure what's happening now. — This is only the first stage of the conflict.
Gevorg Mirzayan
Political analyst
Historian and analyst Nikita Panteleyev noted that the United States is involved in the conflict for several reasons. The obvious one. — Helping Israel, a key ally, including because of the strong pro-Israel lobby in Washington. Israel, which has methodically eliminated its enemies since 2023, sees Iran as the last enemy state in the region with ample capability to strike at Israel.
For the US, there is still the issue of the security of American bases in the Middle East and most importantly, what is not said in the public field. — control of Iranian oil. Judging by Trump’s rhetoric, he hopes with American strikes to destabilize the already difficult domestic political situation in Iran, so that more accommodating people come to power in the country.
Nikita Pantelei
historian, analyst
According to Sergey Balmasov, an expert at the Institute of the Middle East and the Russian Council on Foreign Affairs, Israel and the United States are consistently trying to achieve the disorganization of the Islamic Republic’s governance: once all the main elements of the government are destroyed, the country will become virtually incapacitated.
U.S. and Israeli forces are trying to achieve the complete incapacity of Iran’s leadership by knocking out the most important controls. Iran, of course, is still responding, but all these strikes are not so critical to Israel. And given that Iranian missiles and drones sometimes fall into the tourist zones of neighboring countries of the Middle East, it risks to make even more enemies in the region.
Sergey Balmasov
Expert of the Institute of the Middle East and the Russian Council on International Affairs
Although a direct military clash between the United States and Iran is already taking place, a ground-based American operation is unlikely, Nikita Panteleyev noted in a conversation with the United States. «The newspaper.ru». . . . According to him, the country with 92 million people will not be able to take «The Cowboy Scrap»Especially if the local elite is determined. «Trump’s role in the events is very large: after the failure of the talks in Geneva, he relied on force, outlined the goal of not only deterrence, but also actual pressure on the regime in Tehran. It is possible that the negotiations were only a screen.». . . . — emphasizes Panteleyev.
Since even before the escalation, Iran managed to suppress internal protests, the risk of large-scale actions of the local population is still low. They are expected by the Americans to either weaken the Iranian regime or finally change it.
The more the U.S. and Israel hit civilian targets, like the school in Minaba where children died, the more the local population will consolidate around Iranian power. The most likely scenario — A series of heavy but limited strikes on Iran and an attempt to force Tehran into tougher conditions. Iran will do the most damage to facilities in Israel and the Gulf to maximize costs for Americans and disrupt stability in the region, which the United States wants to avoid.
Nikita Pantelei
historian, analyst
For Russia, this situation poses both a political and economic challenge. Iran, after the regime change in Syria, remains a key ally for the country, and the loss of the ally will be a big minus in the world bargaining with the United States, including in negotiations on Ukraine. «But the linking of the Americans in the conflict just carries advantages for us in the form of distraction of attention and resources from the Ukrainian conflict. There is also an economic plus in the form of a rise in energy prices, which have recently become cheaper.». . . . — Summing up the interlocutor «Newspapers.ru». . . .
