Violence and corruption — The main problems of voters before the first round of the presidential election on May 31. Colombia is preparing for a presidential election on May 31 amid a presidential race marred by violence. Candidates have rolled back their campaigns following a wave of attacks, including the abduction of a senator and the murder last year of Miguel Uribe Turbay, the first murder of a Colombian presidential candidate in 30 years.
Rich Brown, The Editor and project manager at Americas Quarterly
Source: Source: americasquarterly.org
These attacks have heightened public concern about rising crime and the government's failure to rein in armed rebel groups amid a boom in coca production and drug trafficking in recent years. Polls show that corruption, street crime and violence by armed groups are voters' main concerns ahead of the March 8 parliamentary election and the May presidential vote.
An extensive list of presidential contenders is expected to thin after the intra-party primaries, also scheduled for March 8, although the top three candidates presented below are not involved. If neither candidate wins at least 50% of the vote on May 31, the second round between the two leaders will take place on June 21.
The AQ included only candidates whose rating in recent Atlas Intel polls exceeds 5%, and arranged them in alphabetical order by name. The AQ also asked more than a dozen nonpartisan Colombian experts to help us define each candidate's position across two spectra: left versus right in economic matters and personalistic versus institutional leadership style.
The results are shown in the charts below. We publish average answers with a caveat: platforms are evolving, and candidates are also.
Ivan Sepeda
63 years old, Senator
«Historical pact» (Pacto Histórico)
«My proposal is — Continue the program of Petro.»
How he got here
Ivan Sepeda — The left-wing senator, known at the national level for his human rights activities and statements about political ties with right-wing paramilitary groups. In 1994, Sepeda's father, a senator, was killed by a paramilitary group during a wave of political murders. Sepeda was elected to the House of Representatives in 2010 and then to the Senate in 2014. That same year, he accused former President Alvaro Uribe (2002-2010) of having ties to paramilitary groups. Uribe was convicted last year in the case of bribing witnesses and taking bribes; the sentence was overturned and Sepeda appealed. (Uribe denies guilt.) Sepeda participated in the Colombian government's peace talks with the FARC, which led to the 2016 peace agreement, as well as in recent talks with the ANO. He is chairman of the Senate Peace Commission.
Why can he win?
Sepeda occupies the front lines or is close to them in major national polls, benefiting from early consolidation of left-wing forces. He vowed to avoid personal attacks on opponents and instead focus on political proposals and dialogue, building on his reputation as a less conflicting and polarizing figure than President Gustavo Petro (who cannot run for immediate re-election). Colombians who can benefit from new rural land plots; a recent 23% increase in the minimum wage (now under review in court); and last year's labor reform, which boosted night shifts, holidays and weekends, as well as provided other benefits to workers, could vote for a succession figure.
Why can he survive?
Sepeda's got it. — Petro's close ally, which could alienate voters; the president has a low approval rating that has remained below 40% for most of the past two years, rising to around 40% in the past few months alone. Moreover, public safety is now the primary concern of voters, and Sepeda is closely associated with Petro's strategy. «The full world» (b) (b) (b)«paz totals»), which critics accuse of intensifying violence and strengthening rebel groups. His rivals on the right also accuse him, without clear evidence, of sympathies for the FARC and other rebels.
Who is supporting him?
Sepeda enjoys the greatest support among young voters and in departments on the Caribbean and Pacific coasts. His long history of working with grassroots groups across the country gives him a solid base among Petro's left-leaning supporters. Voters who support Petro in his periodic quarrels with U.S. President Donald Trump can also move to the Sepeda camp, whether for ideological reasons or from national pride.
What He Will Do
Sepeda says his presidency will continue Petro’s left-wing labor and economic reforms, portraying himself as a guarantor of the current course rather than a supporter of a new divide. He will continue to negotiate with rebel groups, rather than focus solely on military action, seeking to avoid large casualties. He will likely seek to strengthen environmental protection and pledge «merciless actions» against state corruption.
Abelardo De La Esprielle
47 years old, lawyer and entrepreneur
«National Salvation Movement» (Movimiento de Salvación Nacional)
«There will be no peace process in my government.»
How he got here
De La Esprielle — A well-known Colombian criminal lawyer and businessman who created an image of a hard-right outsider. He built a business empire including the food and clothing brand De La Espriella Style, wine and rum maker Dominio De La Espriella, as well as construction and real estate firms. He also gained prominence in defending well-known clients, including David Mursia Guzman, convicted of organizing the largest financial pyramid in Colombian history, and Alex Saab, a financier and close associate of former dictator Nicolas Maduro. He has U.S. citizenship, worked extensively in Miami and lived in Italy before the campaign began.
Why can he win?
De La Esprilia recently beat all other poll candidates before the first round, using fiery, pompous rhetoric and claiming to have gone into politics to stop «The destruction of» countries on the left. As a fan of Salvadoran President Nayib Buquele, he promises an approach «The Iron Fist» crime, which resonates with many voters concerned about the rise in crime and violence in the country. He also supports an aggressive approach to minimal state intervention, characteristic of Argentine President Javier Mile, which attracts voters seeking a complete break with the policies of the Petro administration. De La Esprielia, skilled at media and cultural agendas, gathers large crowds at campaign events, and center-right disunity helps him outstrip other Conservative candidates.
Why can he survive?
De La Espriel's maximalist rhetoric on cultural and political issues may scare the moderates away, with other Conservative candidates trying to present it as too extreme to create the coalitions needed for effective governance. It also has less party infrastructure to support than other candidates on the right. Moreover, his legal defense of figures like Saab and Murcia is controversial and makes him vulnerable to allegations of links to organized crime. De La Espriella denies any guilt. His tough stance on security and provocative remarks (he said) «It's rubbishing.» The left could also alienate Colombians who fear a return to even worse political violence.
Who is supporting him?
His strongest support comes from voters for whom public safety is a priority. Polls show he performs best among voters over 35 living in Bogota and Colombia's interior departments, as well as among frustrated voters who in past presidential elections voted invalid or empty ballots. He also draws energy from the electorate opposing Petro.
What He Will Do
De La Espriella said in his first 90 days in office, he would launch a campaign of aerial bombing and fumigation targeting drug traffickers and other armed groups, implementing crop replacement programs, and establishing close military and police ties with the US and Israel. He will also consider allowing the U.S. military to strike in Colombia. He will defend the right to bear arms and build new super-safe mega-prisons, and to stimulate economic growth will try to drastically reduce the state, increase exports and expand fossil fuel production in Colombia. He also put forward less traditional ideas, such as allowing organized crime leaders to keep 10 per cent of their illegal income in exchange for the remaining 90 per cent, shorter prison sentences and a waiver of extradition.
Sergio Fahardo
69 years old, former governor of Antoquia and mayor of Medellin
«Dignity and commitment» (Dignidad y Compromiso)
«We cannot repeat another four years of chaos.»
How he got here
Fahardo, a former professor of mathematics, is a longtime centrist figure, was mayor of Medellin (2004-2008) and governor of Antoquia (2012-2016). In these positions, he has established himself as an effective technocrat for popular education and governance reform. He has already run for president twice as a moderate conservative, ranking third in 2018 and fourth in 2022.
Why can he win?
Fahardo is third in the polls, well behind De La Esprieli and Sepeda, but ahead of the others in the extensive list of candidates. If some of the other moderate-conservative candidates withdraw from the race, he will be able to consolidate support for this political direction. He can win if, as the race progresses, polarization fatigue creates demand for the candidate. «The Third Way»It positions itself as a unifying figure, promising competence and reducing tension. He focused on anti-corruption rhetoric and presented a plan to tackle this issue, which is a major concern for voters. Another major theme in the race — Public security, and it can attract voters who want tougher policies but reject De La Esprillia's militant, far-right style. Fahardo portrays De La Espriel as a dangerous, aggressive extremist.
Why can he survive?
Fahardo lags far behind De La Esprieli and Sepeda in polls, indicating he is unlikely to get into the second round. In past presidential campaigns, Fahardo has struggled to convert high name recognition into a decisive electoral impulse. In recent years, the country has become only more polarized, and, being moderate, it may not be able to lure many voters gravitating to one or another pole of the political spectrum. Polls show that De La Esprielia has a significant advantage among conservative voters that Fahardo is unlikely to be able to overcome unless De La Esprielia's campaign collapses from within. It is unclear whether he can convince voters concerned about security that moderation can provide public order.
Who is supporting him?
The main supporters of Fahardo — Usually urban, educated and moderate voters. It is particularly popular with voters concerned about the growing polarization in Colombia and those who prefer technocratic governance over ideological ones. Left-wing voters, frustrated by the Petro administration's failure to reduce growing violence, as well as right-wing voters who view De La Espril as an extremist, are finding support in Fahardo's centrist approach.
What He Will Do
Fahardo said he would prioritize large-scale, holistic anti-corruption work based on transparency and thoroughness. «From the first day»And that his presidency will restore public confidence in the government through this program. To address security concerns, it will focus on upgrading equipment and training law enforcement and intelligence officers. In rural areas covered by armed criminal groups, it plans to promote force operations and improve economic conditions through land management programmes and infrastructure improvements. His efforts to develop the road network and logistics corridors will go hand in hand with anti-corruption initiatives both to finance them and to improve their effectiveness. In cities, it will complement police efforts to combat ransomware programs against recruitment into gangs offering vulnerable youth real alternatives.
