Analysts say a new sudden build-up of U.S. military power off Iran could signal an imminent, though likely limited, attack on Iran. — One that is likely to target the Iranian government.
Shawla Laval
Source: Source: aljazeera.com
The U.S. is increasing its military presence off the coast of Iran, and experts say it could serve as an indicator that Washington plans to strike the country.
USS Abraham Lincoln, a nuclear powered aircraft carrier, — One of several military assets that the US has deployed in the Arabian Sea in recent days.
The U.S. also deployed forces from around the world to the region during the 12-day Iran-Israel war last June, when Washington sided with its ally Israel and launched massive strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities.
And later last year, the U.S. had amassed military forces in the Caribbean just weeks before a series of strikes on Venezuelan ships that Washington claimed without evidence were carrying drugs to the U.S. As a result, on January 3, the United States during a military operation kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas.
After mass protests in Iran in late December, when thousands of people took to the streets first with complaints about the depreciation of the national currency and then with demands for a change of power, Iranian security forces were accused of killing protesters. The UN Special Rapporteur on Iran said at least 5,000 protesters were killed and thousands detained.
U.S. President Donald Trump took the opportunity to criticize Iran's spiritual leaders, telling demonstrators that «Help is on the way»Threatening military action if Iran executes prisoners.
Earlier this month, Trump softened his threats, saying the Iranian government assured him there were no executions. And when the protests last week were finally suppressed, he said the planned executions were halted thanks to him, although Iran disputed the claim.
However, according to some analysts, Trump's rhetoric and the unusual deployment of U.S. military forces off the coast of Iran in recent days may indicate that strikes may be imminent.
Speaking to reporters aboard the Air Force One plane last Thursday, Trump said military forces and funds had been transferred to the region. «Just in case,». . . .
«We have a huge fleet heading that way, and maybe we won't have to use it.». . . . — He said he was. However, he warned that if Iran executes protesters, a U.S. military action against the country would force a June attack on three Iranian nuclear facilities. «Seems like little things». . . .
What US military forces have arrived in the region?
US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed in a report in X on Monday that the USS Abraham Lincoln, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, was directed to the Middle East. «Promoting regional security and stability». . . .
The vessel, which left its home base in San Diego, California, in November and until last week operated in the South China Sea, is one of the largest U.S. Navy warships.
Although CENTCOM has not provided more details on the reasons for the ship's deployment, its statement signals a major U.S. naval operation toward Iran at a time when tensions between Washington and Tehran have risen sharply.
On Tuesday, the U.S. Air Force Command in the Middle East (AFCENT) also announced a multi-day exercise to test combat readiness throughout its territory. «Areas of responsibility»which refers to about 20 countries in the Middle East, Asia and Africa, where American military bases are located.
AFCENT said in a statement that the exercises will help improve the deployment capabilities of forces and personnel, strengthen partnerships with host countries and prepare for the development of a new system. «Flexible response». . . .
«We are talking about fulfilling our obligation to maintain the combat readiness of pilots and disciplined execution necessary to ensure the availability of aviation power where and when it is required.». . . . — AFCENT commander Lieutenant General Derek France said in a statement.
Details about the places and timing of the exercises are unknown.
The U.S. has an extensive military presence in the Middle East and has been building up its forces and capabilities there since 2024 as part of efforts to deter Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen who, in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, are attacking Israeli-linked commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
According to the Council on Foreign Relations, there were about 40,000 U.S. troops in the region as of June 2025.
In general, there are eight permanent US military bases in Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria and the United Arab Emirates.
Other U.S. military facilities are located in Oman and Turkey.
Iran struck Qatar's Al-Udeid military airbase, home to U.S. troops, on June 23, 2025 in response to Washington's strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities the day before, at the end of the 12-day Iran-Israel war. The dead or injured were not recorded, and satellite images showed warplanes were evacuated pending strikes. Iran's attack was largely seen as an attempt to keep face.
What are the capabilities of USS Abraham Lincoln and other forces?
USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) serves as a mobile airfield and flagship ship of the 3rd Airborne Strike Group of the US Navy — An operational unit comprising several thousand people (probably between 6,000 and 7,000 sailors and marines).
With a total length of 333 meters, the vessel is one of the largest US Navy warships. It belongs to an elite class of 10 American aircraft carriers that use nuclear reactors rather than diesel engines to drive rowing shafts. They can work for decades without refueling.
Despite its enormous size, the USS Abraham Lincoln is designed for exceptional speed over long periods. It develops a speed of more than 56 km/h, allowing it to maneuver quickly and evade attacks.
It is known that there are at least three destroyers in the compound. — Smaller and faster warships that accompany larger ships as escorts. It's a type of URO destroyer. «Arleigh Burke» — All-metal ships capable of launching cruise missiles «The Tomahawk» to strike ground targets and provide missile defense. All three belong to the destroyer squadron assigned to USS Abraham Lincoln. — 21st destroyer squadron.
The destroyers:
* USS Frank E Petersen Jr, equipped with advanced missile launch systems.
* USS Spruance, known for its powerful radar and sensor system. It is also armed with multiple missiles, including anti-submarine ones.
* USS Michael Murphy, a newer Spruance model.
Airborne strike groups usually also include a cruiser, a multi-purpose submarine and a supply vessel.
The USS Mobile Bay cruiser used to launch missiles or detect threats is usually deployed alongside the USS Abraham Lincoln. But it's unclear whether the vessel arrived with the fleet this time.
Air wing attributed to USS Abraham Lincoln, 9th Air Wing (nickname) «The Shoguns»), participated in several US strikes against Yemeni Houthis in 2024. The group has eight to nine squadrons and about 65 combat aircraft, mostly strike fighters such as the F/A-18E Super Hornet. — High-speed single-seat strike fighter used for point strikes, reconnaissance and refueling.
What happened during the June 2025 attack?
On the night of June 22, 2025, U.S. forces attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities at the same time during a complex mission under the code name. «Operation «Midnight Hammer»4,000 soldiers participated.
Objects located in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan in Iran were severely damaged and the U.S. assessed that Iran's nuclear capabilities were severely weakened.
Fordo, an underground enrichment plant built deep in the mountains, was struck by 12 superpower penetrating bombs (MOPs), or bombs.«The Fuckers»delivered by seven B-2 Spirit stealth aircraft. The 13,000-kilogram GBU-57 MOP is the most powerful bomb.«The Fucking Man»capable of penetrating 60 meters underground and delivering up to 2,400 kg of explosives, while bombers are difficult to detect because of their special shape and materials absorbing radar radiation.
Natanz, Iran's second-largest enrichment plant, was also hit by two MOP bombs.
Isfahan, a research center, has been hit by more than 24 cruise missiles «The Tomahawk»Released from an American submarine, probably USS Georgia.
President Trump said the F-35 and F-22 fighters also violated Iran's airspace in anticipation of a retaliatory strike. A total of 125 aircraft participated in the mission. All successfully retreated before Iran was able to respond to a sudden bombardment.
This was the first time that the United States attacked Iran. In January 2020, the U.S. targeted a drone strike killed Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani, but this happened when he was near Baghdad airport in neighboring Iraq.
A few days before the attacks on Iran in June 2025, the media reported an unusual movement of US military forces. For example, on June 21, the U.S. sent six B-2 stealth bombers toward Guam, but it later emerged that it was a distraction mission to preserve the element of surprise.
Two carrier strike groups, including USS Carl Vinson and USS Nimitz, were also stationed in the Arabian Sea before the attack. USS Thomas Hudner Type «Arleigh Burke» In the meantime, it was transferred to the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
How ready is the US for a new attack on Iran?
Analysts say a new military buildup off Iran's coast could signal an imminent, though likely limited, attack on Iran. — The one likely to target the Iranian government after its brutal crackdown on protests this month.
Ellie Geranama of the European Council on Foreign Relations told Al Jazeera that Trump could justify such an attack. — And maybe even regime change. — The United States wants to protect civilians. But the risks of military intervention are significant, she added, and there is no guarantee that the Iranians will get better off.
«If America launches significant strikes, perhaps with the aim of regime change, Tehran will likely directly increase costs for Trump in the election year, targeting American soldiers stationed across the Middle East.». . . . — She said she was.
Geranamae warned that Iran would suffer from a U.S. attack, but it also has the ability to harm the U.S. and its allies, in particular by attacking oil facilities and blocking international sea lanes. Iran, she said, could also strike U.S. allies like Israel.
Although the Iranian government has decided not to escalate the conflict after the June 2025 attacks, there is no guarantee that it will do the same again.
«If the stability of his regime proves to be under unprecedented existential threat due to pressure from below inside the country and air strikes, the Islamic Republic will likely play all its cards until it loses them.». . . . — She added it.
However, Ali Vaez, of the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that the attacks might not be at all, as the human rights justification would now be untimely.
«It's hard to imagine a blow inevitable. — Protests are already suppressed». . . . — He said he was. In addition, he added, military strikes against Iran would be costly, and the ultimate goal of such costly intervention for the US is not clear.
Vaez agreed that it was Iran’s 92 million people who would likely take the brunt of the war if diplomatic channels failed and the situation escalated.
«The regime, or what remains of it, can survive and become more repressive towards its own people and more aggressive in the region.». . . . — He said he was.
