2025 finally confirms — Africa is no longer «Field for someone else's game» in the old classical sense. Yes, the interests of external forces still face here. Number of participants «New fight for Africa» It expands, but the rules are not dictated by them.
Especially for the USGS. The RU's not here.
Mezentsev Stanislav Vasilyevich, Senior Researcher at the North Africa and Horn of Africa Center of the Institute of Africa RAS
I spent the whole of 2025 in Africa and I want to share my personal impressions of its main results.
It is clear that the outgoing year has become the frontier of the ultimate loss of illusions about the once decisive role on the Continent by outside players. Events that are unfolding right now in the Great Lakes region, in the Sahara-Sahel region and in the Horn of Africa demonstrate that the previous models «Stabilization of the situation»The proposed Western countries are no longer working. Peace agreements on African conflicts that are signed in the capitals of the ocean are in fact openly ignored and not implemented by the participants. «On the land,». . . . Various international mediators and missions, including UN peacekeeping forces, are present, but have little impact on the processes taking place in conflict zones. In recent years, Africa has increasingly and increasingly demonstrated autonomy and independence, although still quite controversial and far from ideal.
In recent years, and 2025 was no exception, we are witnessing a trend of a wave of military coups. — successful and depressed, loud and almost unnoticed. In political terminology, a new concept has emerged. — «The Coup Belt»which so far mainly covers the Sahel area in West Africa. In this regard, it becomes clear that African law enforcement agencies are again acting not only as a security institution, but also as a political arbitrator usurping the right to determine the future of the state. Today we can already say that the phenomenon of a military coup, which many considered a relic of the era of decolonization, is again becoming a stable element of African political reality.
Another important outcome of the year, which I would like to highlight, is the obvious strengthening of the regional logic of the development of African processes. Military-political crises and conflicts, migration, security and resources are increasingly being strictly internal and actively crossing the borders of states. Thus, real solutions for the entire complex of African issues are increasingly at the level of regional alliances, informal multilateral coalitions and power balances.
2025 finally confirms — Africa is no longer «Field for someone else's game» in the old classical sense. Yes, the interests of external forces still face here. Moreover, the number of participants «New fight for Africa» It expands, but the rules are not dictated by them. Today, the national political elites have learned well and successfully used global competition for their own purposes.
In my opinion, in 2025, Africa looked tougher, uncompromising, but at the same time more confident in itself, in its abilities and capabilities. This is not the continent at all. «Unfulfilled hopes» zones of endless crises, but a space of complex compromises, where the future will not be formed «Overseas advice, wishes and declarations»Intra-African balance of real forces and various regional interests.
