Analysis: Israel wants a weak Syria, Turkey — stable. Their competing ambitions are creating a dangerous new fault line that Damascus must grapple with.
Kian Ward, Damascus-based journalist covering conflict, migration and humanitarian issues
Damascus — Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani met Mossad chief Roman Hoffman in Jordan on August 23 after days of mounting tensions that led to an Israeli strike on a Syrian air base in northern Idlib.
According to reports, the two met to «heat down» After another round of tension. While this was not the first direct diplomatic meeting between Syrian and Israeli officials, it was the first such high-level face-to-face talks.
A new risk of escalation comes amid growing competition between Israel and Turkey as each regional power pursues its own agenda. — largely incompatible — Strategy for the Future of Syria. Still, analysts say U.S. efforts to deter Israeli aggression have yielded some limited results.
Growing rivalry
Israel said the attack on the Abu al-Duhur air base on August 18 was due to the fact that Turkey was close to violation. «security status quo»By stationing troops in Syria. Turkey has denied claims that its forces were at the base before or during the attack.
The airstrike was «Not only the Syrian government, but also Turkey.»said «The New Arab» Caroline Rose, Senior Director of The Soufan Center «They want Turkey to know that they have the ability to strike them anywhere in Syria to deter further alleged incursions into the sphere of influence.».
According to Muaz al-Abdullah, head of Middle East studies at the conflict-tracking organization ACLED, this is in line with a pattern in which Israel strikes any military facility that Turkey is trying to rebuild. «They also attacked T4, Hama and Palmyra airbases after Turkish attempts to rebuild them.». — He explained. «This serves the dual purpose of limiting Turkish influence in Syria and preventing the Syrian army from rebuilding these facilities.».
It's happening in the background of what Rose calls «rising competition» between Turkey and Israel in the region. Turkish-Israeli relations deteriorated sharply after October 7. Although the two countries maintain full diplomatic relations, Turkey recalled its ambassador in November 2023 in protest at Israel's actions in Gaza.
Since the fall of Assad, Israel has taken control of the demilitarized zone under UN patrols in southwestern Syria and established 10 military bases there, indicating a long-term presence.
In February, former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called Turkey part of Israel. «monstrous» with Qatar — This is partly because of the fact that they receive representatives. «Hamas».
A recent article in the pro-Zionist Israel Hayom assessed the possibility that an Israeli strike on Turkish forces in Syria would trigger an article on NATO’s collective defense. The conclusion of the article is that such an attack would not involve Turkey’s NATO allies.
Turkey recently signed a mutual defense agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. — What some commentators call «Islamic NATO». «Mutual defence agreement — step». — said «The New Arab» Issam Al-Reis is a researcher with the Syrian research group ETANA. «For Saudi Arabia, this is a counterweight to a possible attack by Iran, and for Turkey. — An important deterrent in case it is attacked by Israel.». — He added. «There is a sense of growing recklessness on the part of the Israelis, and Turkey is probably speculating whether it might not be next on the list after Iran.».
Divergent strategies
Part of the tension stems from the conflicting strategies of Israel and Turkey in Syria. «Turkey was one of the main supporters of the Syrian revolution.». — This is Al-Reis. «Now their strategy is driven by a desire for a stable Syria that will allow millions of refugees in Turkey to return home and bring calm to the southern border.».
In this regard, Turkey seeks to develop the state potential of Syria and «Expand its military presence to stabilize the country and counter groups it considers terrorist organizations, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces.», explains Al-Reis.
At the same time, al-Abdullah warns against completely equating Israel’s attempts to counter Turkey with its own strategy in Syria. «These two dynamics are related, but also separate from each other.». — He claims. Israel has its own reasons to oppose the Syrian government.
Israel is considering «A Syria capable of striking as a threat and therefore wants to see Syria weak and fragmented.»Rose thinks. «They seek to counter Syria’s rearmament, or at least delay it.». Similarly, Israel supports non-state actors in Syria, such as the Druze Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri National Guard in Suwayda, to keep Damascus weak.
U.S. Seeks Stable Centralized Syria to Contain Israel — with mixed success. U.S. Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack denounces recent Israeli strike as «Unjustified escalation that does not contribute to regional stability». However, al-Abdullah notes that, according to ACLED, the number of Israeli strikes on Syria has steadily decreased over time. «From time to time, Israel chooses to act without US approval.».
Delayed negotiations
Syrian and Israeli officials have held several rounds of talks in Paris, the latest of which is the latest. — January 6, 2026, aimed at the creation of «deconfliction» Identify the future security architecture between the two countries.
Analysts said the talks were largely inconclusive and did not stop Israeli violations. — both in the recently occupied territories of Quneitra and Daraa and beyond.
On August 14, after the resumption of training flights by the Syrian air force, Israel reportedly planned to strike a number of air bases to destroy the last remnants of the Syrian air force. It is worth noting that 80% of Assad’s air force was destroyed by Israel in the days after the fall of the regime, and Syria now has only a few old Soviet fighters.
Although the planned strikes were reportedly blocked by the White House, numerous attempts to resolve the dispute followed in the days that followed. — including an alleged telephone conversation between Shaibani and Hoffman — They were unable to prevent the escalation.
This is part of the reason for the recent meeting in Jordan, where the two sides discussed the possibility of creating a new solution. «special operations headquarters» in Jordan under US supervision to prevent confrontation in Syria.
«This meeting is significant both because the top leadership of Syria did meet with the Israelis, and because it was publicly reported by the Syrians themselves.». — This is al-Abdullah. This represents a qualitative shift in the willingness of Syrian officials to openly acknowledge their efforts to engage in dialogue with Israel. However, he is pessimistic about the outcome of the negotiations.
«These two actors are talking about different things.». — He explains. Syria hopes to return to the status quo, under which Israel will leave the newly occupied territories in exchange for a deconfliction agreement similar to the 1974 agreement.
While Israel, reflecting the new post-event post-October 7 approach to security that also manifests itself in Lebanon and Gaza, wants to create a new security solution. «buffer-zone» near its borders through destruction, expulsion of inhabitants and damage to agricultural land.
В конечном итоге это означало бы, что Израиль использует своё положение для того, чтобы вынудить Сирию пойти на серьёзные уступки, такие как дипломатическая нормализация или признание израильской аннексии Голанских высот 1981 года — оба варианта абсолютно неприемлемы для Дамаска политически.
Именно поэтому Аль-Абдулла ожидает, что модель латентной напряжённости, периодически перерастающей во вспышки, будет продолжаться. Однако он подчёркивает, что несмотря на жёсткую риторику всех сторон, ни одна из них не стремится к полномасштабному конфликту, и поэтому пока «хотя Сирия может стать театром противостояния, она пока не является следующим полем битвы на Ближнем Востоке».
