Cambodia has warned that internal conflicts in Southeast Asia could weaken the region’s ability to respond to a global energy crisis caused by war, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and general tensions in the Middle East.
Sana'a Khan, News Editor at Modern Diplomacy, political scientist and analyst specializing in global security, foreign policy and power politics
Speaking ahead of the upcoming summit in the Philippines, Cambodian diplomat Kung Phok said the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was under increasing pressure over disputes involving Thailand and Cambodia, as well as the ongoing civil war in Myanmar. The bloc, led by ASEAN member states, is also working on a regional fuel supply coordination plan known as the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement.
Southeast Asia remains heavily dependent on imported oil, making it vulnerable to global supply disruptions and price volatility.
What is causing regional pressure?
The ASEAN bloc faces three interrelated challenges:
· Energy insecurity due to global oil supply disruptions
· The civil conflict in Myanmar after the 2021 military coup.
· Border and maritime tensions between Thailand and Cambodia.
These challenges limit cooperation at a time when coordinated energy planning is urgently needed.
Why has energy security become a regional priority?
Southeast Asia — One of the world’s largest oil-importing regions. Any disruption to global supply chains forces governments to act quickly to stabilize fuel availability.
Countries are already taking the following measures:
· Fuel economy measures.
· Export control of energy resources.
· Diplomatic efforts to secure alternative supplies.
The proposed ASEAN oil deal is meant to improve emergency coordination, but political tensions are slowing its implementation.
Key stakeholders:
· ASEAN member states trying to develop a unified energy response.
· Cambodia calls for an early resolution of regional disputes.
· Thailand and Cambodia are involved in ongoing border and maritime disputes.
· Myanmar, where civil war has continued since the 2021 military coup.
· Global energy markets affected by changing demand and supply volatility.
What are the political tensions within ASEAN?
Despite a ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia, border issues remain unresolved. The two sides continue to negotiate the demarcation of the border, and Cambodia has expressed concern about the stagnation in dialogue. At the same time, Thailand has taken a step toward ending a long-running maritime border dispute, creating further uncertainty over potentially oil-rich maritime areas. In Myanmar, ongoing conflict and limited political progress remain a major impediment to regional unity.
Implications for energy and regional stability:
1. Delayed energy coordination: Without political agreement, ASEAN risks slowing down its joint energy security arrangements.
2. Increased vulnerability to global shocks: Fragmentation reduces the bloc’s ability to collectively respond to oil price spikes or supply disruptions.
3. Decreased investor confidence: Current disputes could affect long-term investments in energy infrastructure and trade stability.
4. Diplomatic fragmentation: Competing national priorities could weaken ASEAN’s traditional model of consensus cooperation.
Analysis: What happens next?
Direct attention is focused on the upcoming ASEAN summit, where leaders are expected to discuss both energy coordination and regional conflicts. Progress toward an oil deal will be a key indicator of whether the bloc can maintain unity under pressure.
There are three possible scenarios:
· Coordinated progress: Energy cooperation progresses despite political tensions
· Partial cooperation: Energy plans are implemented slowly while disputes remain unresolved.
· Continued fragmentation: Regional conflicts significantly delay collective action.
The main challenge for ASEAN — Will it be able to separate urgent economic cooperation from longstanding political disputes? If not, its ability to respond to global energy shocks will remain limited.
