In some ways, the most progressive leader in the country's recent history has kept his word. Arevalo focused on improving education and health care systems while fighting organized crime and building a constructive relationship with the Trump administration.
Jose Enrique Arrioja, Managing Editor of Americas Quarterly and Senior Policy Director of the American Society/Council of the Americas
Source source: americasquarterly.org
The centrist president's rating fell to 35 percent amid frustration over public safety and infrastructure problems.
Since taking office, President Bernardo Arevalo has been encouraging with his conversations about «democratic spring» — It promises not only prosperity but also an atmosphere of institutional tranquility in Guatemala.
In some ways, the most progressive leader in the country's recent history has kept his word. Arevalo focused on improving education and health care systems while fighting organized crime and building a constructive relationship with the Trump administration. In February, the government ended a month-long state of emergency imposed after gangs killed 11 police officers. During this period, 83 gang members were arrested and the number of extortions decreased slightly.
The economy also plays into Arevalo's hands: Guatemala's GDP grew by 4.1% last year — This is the highest figure since 2022, well above the projected ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) 2.3% for the region. His administration signed a reciprocal trade agreement with the US, reducing non-tariff barriers and restoring duty-free access for most Guatemalan goods. At the same time, Arevalo is deepening ties with Taiwan, which Guatemala recognizes instead of mainland China, including discussing the possibility of the country entering the semiconductor supply chain.
The fact that Arevalo has retained his post is an achievement, given that some members of the Guatemalan establishment have used all means, including attempts to dissolve his political party, to prevent him from coming to power in 2024. Ever since Arevalo himself said in an interview for a special AQ report last year, the president has been working to make sure that «Tangibly save Guatemalan institutions from state corruption and make them work for what they were created for.».
For most Guatemalans, however, this is far from enough. A recent poll by local think tank Libertad y Desarrollo found that only 35 percent of Guatemalans approve of Arévalo's activities. Some 62% disapprove (up from 46% in January 2025), citing public safety, unemployment, the cost of living and mobility issues as major sources of concern.
Many have noted that Arevalo has made some progress in transparency, but he lacks decisive action in other areas, especially on the quality of life issues that concern Guatemalans the most.
«I don't think anyone would say this is a government of corrupt officials. — Raquel Zelaya, president of local think tank ASIES, said. — But people have high expectations; they have many needs and problems that are not being addressed. They need healthcare, education, roads and more.».
Key decisions
Arevalo also has a complicated relationship with Congress. — And it's not just the opposition, which has a majority in the legislature. His own party. «The Semilla Movement» The Movimiento Semilla, which he helped found, split in part because of disagreements between the centrist and progressive wings.
In practice, this split has left Arevalo without a coherent political structure as the party continues to challenge injunctions against its legitimacy. New organization «Raises» Raíces, created by former ally and MP Samuel Perez, is positioning itself as an alternative centre-left option in a general election scheduled for June next year (Guatemala's presidents cannot be re-elected).
According to Zelaya, the split «Weakened Arevalo.». «There is no precedent in the world for a president to rule without a party, without a faction in Congress.». — She added, noting that «Semilla» may not participate in the leadership of the Congress or chair any of its special committees; — positions which, under normal circumstances, help to promote bills and obtain their approval. Last week, outgoing members of the National Electoral Tribunal ratified the liquidation decision. «Semilla» as a political organization.
«The lack of concrete results is obvious». — Elmer Palencia, leader of the opposition party «valora» Valor in Congress and Vice President of Congress, stressing that the government continues to struggle with implementing policies and projects such as building new roads and expanding ports, as promised. «We only have a series of excuses, no progress on health, infrastructure, or security.». — He added.
In 2026, Congress is likely to pass at least three key laws: anti-money laundering, port modernization, and a new public procurement system.
Looking to the future
The biggest challenge for Arévalo will be choosing a new attorney general on May 15. The current attorney general, Consuelo Porras, was one of the main figures trying to prevent Arévalo from taking office and is under sanctions from the United States, Canada and the European Union for alleged corruption.
The commission, made up of university deans, bar and magistrates, will present a short list of six candidates, with Arevalo making the final decision. Currently, Porras herself and several of her allies are on the list of candidates. Earlier this year, Arevalo said in an interview that Porras's ambition to become a prosecutor was — it «ridicule» over the Guatemalan people.
For Arévalo, this choice will be especially important, as it will allow for the implementation of some «processes»They are crucial to the transformation of Guatemala. On March 11, he completed the appointment of Constitutional Court judges. — highest court in the country. In addition, Congress elected magistrates to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), which will oversee the 2027 general election.
An encouraging economic picture
Outside of short-term politics, Guatemala's economy continues to do quite well. GDP is expected to grow by 3.6% this year, and the central bank in February lowered the base rate to 3.5% for the fourth time in a row. — It is the lowest level since November 2022, and last week decided to leave it unchanged. While the bank acknowledged the risks posed by the Middle East war and protectionist measures, it reiterated its 2026 GDP growth forecast of 3.1 to 5.1 percent.
Shortly after the publication of a special report by AQ last year, S&P Global upgraded Guatemala’s sovereign rating, citing the fact that the country is not a sovereign country. «record-breaking economic sustainability»It is supported by the lowest level of net public debt in Latin America, despite possible surges in political uncertainty.
In October, Fitch Ratings went down the same path, boosting Guatemala's ratings, though it acknowledged that the country's ratings were on track. «limited management problems». The Arévalo government believes that both of these decisions bring the country closer to its coveted goals. «investment-grade» — There are only six countries in Latin America.
However, some doubt that Guatemala will be able to achieve this milestone during Arévalo's reign. «It will be difficult.». — Juan Carlos Zapata, director of the Guatemala Development Fund (FUNDESA), told AQ, explaining that when visiting rating agencies, they always ask whether changes under Arévalo change the country's institutions. Zapata believes the government still needs to improve public procurement rules and digitize some processes. «We are a long way from creating a 100% digital state.». — He added.
Constant changes hinder the solution of large-scale infrastructure tasks. In November, Arevalo appointed Norma Lisset Sea Osorio as the fifth Minister of Transport and Infrastructure since his inauguration in January 2024.
After months of study tours across the country, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) signed an agreement in January to develop conceptual projects to build an industrial rail system connecting the Pacific port of Puerto Quetzal to a multimodal logistics station in Escuintl, a major industrial city in southwestern Guatemala. However, many projects are still waiting. Arevalo's ambitious program to connect most isolated rural areas, called «Rutas para el Desarrollo» ?«Roads to development»), and the second plan under the title n «Conecta» ?«Connect.») most of the national road network has not yet gained momentum.
«Progress is limited, some projects and roads have been commissioned due to emergencies.». — said the opposition MP Palencia, — It's not planned. The Infrastructure Act, which he authored, was passed by Congress in 2024 but, he said, failed to realize its potential due to a lack of technical capacity and staff turnover in the Infrastructure Department. «Overall efficiency was low.». — said Palencia.
According to Carlos Benitez Verdun, the permanent representative of the United Nations Development Program in the country, the implementation of social programs is not a problem. «The government has been and continues to be successful in implementing the program.» Fighting poverty and malnutrition, he told AQ. In his view, the task of the government — Expand the scope of programmes such as «Mano a Mano.» ?«Hand in hand.»), to as many municipalities as possible and to ensure their sustainability beyond Arévalo's term of office. The government has prioritized working with 114 out of 340 municipalities based on the Social Home Register’s technical criteria. By 2025, the government has covered 75 municipalities, and the target for 2026 — reach 80 municipalities. Speaking to Congress earlier this year, Arevalo stressed that 50,000 households have replaced ground floors with cement floors, which has improved their housing conditions and reduced public health spending.
But it will take time, even a decade, to see these measures reflected in national statistics, says Benitez Verdun. Preliminary evidence suggests that Guatemala is closing the gaps in undernourishment and poverty, for example. «We are still at the beginning of the implementation of the policy, and it is too early to declare victory.». — He said.
