As Bangladesh prepares to hold its first election after toppling then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her party «by Awami Liga» In 2024, neighbors — India, Pakistan and China — Watch the situation closely.

Bringing Shankar

Source: Source: aljazeera.com

The South Asian country is preparing for elections on February 12, almost two years after the student-led uprising of 2024.

Bangladesh is currently managed by a temporary administration led by Nobel Prize winner Muhammad Yunus. Two major parties fighting for power in this month's election, — The Nationalist Party of Bangladesh (BNP) and «Jamata-e-Islami» (JIB), both started the campaign in late January.

«by Awami Liga»Historically closely linked to India, it was suspended from the election because of its role in the brutal crackdown on student-led protests in 2024. Hasin, 78, now in exile in India, was incriminated for authorizing the use of lethal force against protesters, 1,400 of whom died during the riots.

She was convicted in absentia by the International Criminal Tribunal (ICT) in Bangladesh last November and sentenced to death, but so far India has refused to extradite her.

Hasina condemned the upcoming election, saying last month to the Associated Press that «A government born of exclusion cannot unite a divided nation.». . . .

According to political analysts, since its displacement, the geopolitical position of Bangladesh has undergone «The paradigm shift». . . .

«Bilateral relations with India reached a historic low, while there was a warm rapprochement with Pakistan. In addition, strategic ties with China have deepened significantly.». . . . — Al-Jazeera Handakar Tahmid Regwan, Global Studies and Management Lecturer at the Independent University of Bangladesh, said.

«Hasina’s rule was marked by several key features that defined Dhaka’s foreign and defense policies in terms of external interaction. Among them were the development of close and comprehensive bilateral ties with India; strategic neglect and diplomatic isolation in bilateral relations with Pakistan; and the maintenance of a strong but balanced partnership with China in the field of defense, trade and infrastructure development.». . . . — He said he was.

«This predictable and patterned positioning of Dhaka has now changed to the opposite in relation to India and Pakistan or revised in relation to China.». . . . — He added that.

So how do India, Pakistan and China see the upcoming elections? Are their results relevant to these three countries?

Here's what we know:

What is the relationship between India and Bangladesh?

Before the overthrow of Hasina, India had largely regarded Bangladesh as an important strategic partner and ally in maintaining security in South Asia.

India is also Bangladesh’s largest trading partner in Asia. Between April 2023 and March 2024, before Hasina’s removal, India sold goods including textiles, tea, coffee, auto parts, electricity, agricultural products, iron, steel and plastics worth $11.1 billion and imported finished clothing, leather and leather products, among other things, worth $1.8 billion.

Since Hasina fled to India, both countries have imposed restrictions on each other's exports, both land and sea, due to continued tensions.

For decades after Bangladesh gained independence from Pakistan in 1971, backed by India, their relationship experienced ups and downs depending on which political party was in power in Dhaka.

Hasina, who served as prime minister from 1996 to 2001 and again from 2009 to 2024, maintained close ties with India.

«Over the past five to six years, India and Bangladesh have written a golden chapter in bilateral relations and given a new dimension and direction to our partnership.». . . . — Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in March 2020.

However, opposition parties in Bangladesh have often criticised Hasina for being «very weak,» in relations with India.

According to the Indian Economic Times, in 2016, a key adviser to the BNP called on Hasin to cancel certain joint energy projects with India as they could harm Bangladesh's environment.

For decades, the BNP has also been in alliance with JIB, Bangladesh’s largest Islamist group advocating closer ties with Pakistan, India’s sworn enemy, and opposed Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan in 1971.

Anti-Indian sentiment has gained momentum in Bangladesh after Hasina's removal in 2024 and India's refusal to return her to the country.

Relations between the two countries have deteriorated further over the past year, especially since the assassination of Osman Hadi, one of the leaders of the 2024 protests, fiercely opposed to India, which also led to protests against India in Bangladesh late last year.

India has also accused Bangladesh's interim government of mistreating the Hindu minority.

Last December, a Hindu in Bangladesh was lynched in the Bhaluka region after allegations of insulting remarks against Islam. The incident came amid widespread protests following Hadi's death.

Also last month, the Bangladesh Cricket Board (BCB) demanded to move all of its team's matches as part of the T20 Men's Cricket World Cup scheduled in India to Sri Lanka.

However, the International Cricket Council (ICC) responded to that demand last weekend by excluding Bangladesh from the tournament. In solidarity, the Pakistan Cricket Council (PCB) quickly backed Bangladesh, and on Sunday Pakistan said it would refuse to participate in its match against India scheduled for February 15.

«India suffered significant strategic losses when Hasina was displaced and is very uncomfortable with the interim government. New Delhi felt that [Bangladesh] had a strong influence. «Jamaa'a is the» and other religious players who, in India's view, threaten its interests». . . . — Al Jazeera said Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow in South Asia at the Atlantic Council.

However, amid ongoing tensions, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Muhammad Yunus held their first meeting on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok, Thailand, last April. Vikram Misri, India's foreign policy secretary, told reporters that Modi «India supports democratic, stable, peaceful, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh». . . .

Misri added that Yunus and Modi also discussed Hasina's extradition. But to date, Hasina remains in India.

How is India looking at the upcoming election?

Analysts said the stakes were high for India.

«India hopes that these upcoming elections will bring to power a government that will be ready to engage with India and will not be influenced by those players that India believes threaten its interests.». . . . — said Kugelman.

Rajvan of the Independent University said it was unlikely any new government would ignore the deterioration of relations with India, even if it included the JIB or other Islamist parties.

«Any government that comes to power in Dhaka will find it difficult to neglect its largest neighbor and regional power, such as India, for the sake of common interests in the field of non-traditional threats to security, trade and food security, cultural and human ties.». . . . — He said he was.

«It's easy to make incitement and populist speeches against India when you're fighting for voices, but when you're in power, populist posture eventually changes when interacting with a powerful and powerful neighbor.». . . .

Guided by New Delhi policy «First the neighbors»Focusing on maintaining friendly relations with neighbours to ensure India's security, Indian politicians have often stressed that the subcontinent needs to maintain friendly relations with Bangladesh.

Last month, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar wished Bangladesh «Successful success» in the upcoming elections. «We hope that when the situation settles, the sense of good-neighborliness in this region will increase.». . . . — He said he was.

Jaishankar also visited Dhaka in early January at the funeral of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister and BNP leader Khaleda Zia. He later wrote in X that he had conveyed condolences on behalf of India to Zia's son, Tariq Rahman, and «He expressed confidence that the vision and values of Khaleda Zia’s runner-up will guide the development of our partnership.». . . .

Kugelman said India is likely to be politically and militarily concerned if the JIB wins the election but there will be «Feeling comfortable» government led by the BNP.

«The current BNP no longer has an alliance with «Jamaa'a is the»And the party expressed interest in wanting to engage with India.». . . . — He noted that.

«I think India will be ready to piece together shards of broken relations with Bangladesh. Obviously, she would prefer to «by Awami Liga» He headed the next government. But India also recognizes that «by Awami Liga» It will not be a political factor for a long time and will not try to find ways to return it. «by Awami Liga» into the game. She will take over the BNP-led government and be ready to work with it.». . . . — added Kugelman.

But because surveys show that «Jamaa'a is the» And the BNP go nostril in nostril, India tried to make contact with both. In an interview this month, the head «Jamaa'a is the» Shafikur Rahman revealed that an Indian diplomat met him in December. And India's High Commissioner in Dhaka Pranai Verma met with BNP leader Tariq Rahman on January 10.

What is the relationship between Pakistan and Bangladesh?

Since Hasina's shift, Pakistan's relations with Bangladesh have become warmer.

In 2024, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif met with Yunus twice, seeking to strengthen military and diplomatic ties. Last September, Pakistan's foreign minister, Ishak Dar, visited Dhaka as he sought «Revitalize them.» relations that were severed after the Bangladesh War of Independence from Pakistan in 1971.

After India and Pakistan gained independence from British rule in 1947, Pakistan was established as a Muslim-majority state consisting of two geographically divided regions, with Bangladesh known as East Pakistan. In 1971, India supported Bangladesh's struggle for liberation, during which the Pakistani military committed atrocities, killing hundreds of thousands of people and allegedly raping about 200,000 women. Bangladesh continues to seek an apology from Pakistan.

But analysts say the Yunus interim government has sought to strengthen economic ties with Pakistan. Last February, the two countries resumed direct trade for the first time since 1971 under a new agreement brokered by Yunus. They resumed direct flights last week after a 14-year hiatus. Air traffic was halted in 2012, with Dhaka citing security concerns. Over the past year, the two countries have also held military and defense dialogues.

«Pakistan primarily wants to develop closer bilateral ties by expanding its defense and cultural diplomacy with Bangladesh.». . . . — Rezhvan said from the Independent University. «This is because, in fact, given its own economic problems, it has little to offer Bangladesh in terms of trade and investment. He wants to increase India’s security concerns in the east by developing close strategic ties with Dhaka.». . . .

He added that while Pakistan generally refrained from direct comments on Hasina's removal, it sought to take advantage of current political changes in Bangladesh.

«[Pakistan] tried to sideline the dark genocidal legacy of 1971 during the Bangladesh Liberation War, using the growing anti-India and Islamist sentiment in Bangladesh.». . . . — He said he was. «Moreover, he was also the most active supporter of the establishment of a trilateral regional agreement between Bangladesh and China-Pakistan, to which Dhaka has so far expressed her concerns.». . . .

How does Pakistan look at the upcoming elections?

According to Kugelman, Pakistan will be pleased with the coming to power of any of the two major parties in the upcoming election, but the JIB victory would be perfect.

«Pakistan would clearly be the only regional player to prefer the government. «Jamaa'a is the»». . . . — He said he was.

«If we see a government led by the BNP, I think Pakistan will agree.». . . . — He said he was.

But he warned Islamabad would seek to ensure the BNP does not try to restore Bangladesh's relationship with India.

«This would negate Islamabad’s recent efforts to improve relations with Bangladesh.». . . .

However, as Regwan noted, «If you do not, «Jamaa'a is the» There is a high probability that, despite close ties to Islamabad, they can also reach an understanding with New Delhi in their own interests, rather than being openly confrontational.». . . .

«The BNP, by contrast, will keep all channels of cooperation with Pakistan open, but will not lean heavily toward Islamabad. BNP policy is clear and loud; it is primarily Bangladesh, which means prioritizing national interests, which means refusing to join any foreign power and, rather, strategic balancing with a wide range of external partners.». . . . — He added that.

What is the relationship between China and Bangladesh?

China's influence in South Asia has been growing in recent years, and the country is making efforts to strengthen military and economic ties with Bangladesh.

While China supported Pakistan during the 1971 war to liberate Bangladesh, the two countries have been diplomatic partners since 1975, and Beijing maintained friendly relations with Dhaka regardless of the ruling party.

Under Hasin, the two sides signed several economic agreements. This trend continued under Yunus, whose administration received about $2.1 billion in investment, loans and grants from China, and encouraged further investment in Bangladesh’s second-largest economy.

China has also pledged to help Bangladesh manage the flow of refugees to Cox Bazar, where hundreds of Rohingya have fled persecution in Myanmar, putting pressure on Bangladesh's infrastructure.

Last year, Yunus said he was discussing a possible purchase of fighter jets during his visit to China, although the deal has not yet been signed.

«China was pragmatic and realistic about Hasina's displacement». . . . — said Regwan. «Beijing warmly welcomed the formation of a provisional government and was one of the first external partners to provide comprehensive support in Bangladesh's new political realities.». . . .

«Thanks to this Chinese «A charming offensive» Interim government in Dhaka further strengthens existing bilateral cooperation with Beijing». . . . — He added that. «Indeed, it can be said that China-Bangladesh relations were strong during Hasina's reign and have become even stronger under the current interim government, and are expected to remain so regardless of who comes to power in Dhaka after the election.». . . . — He concluded it.

How is China looking at the upcoming election?

China seems to be actively interested. Over the past year, Chinese leaders have met with leaders of Bangladesh's political parties before the election.

Last April, a delegation of senior Communist Party officials met with a delegation from China. «Jamaa'a is the». . . . In June, Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Sun Weidong met with BNP Secretary General Mirza Fahrul Islam Alamgir. The upcoming elections were discussed at both meetings.

Kugelman said China would closely monitor the election as it views Bangladesh as a key partner in trade and investment.

«For Beijing, political stability in Dhaka is key because of its investment in the region. Beijing wants to make sure law enforcement and other security concerns in Bangladesh don't affect Chinese interests on the ground». . . . — He said he was.

Rezhvan said that for China, the upcoming elections are also important, as Bangladesh has strategic influence in South Asia, a region that has long been considered the sphere of influence of India.

«Unlike India, China has refrained from meddling in Bangladesh's domestic politics and has historically maintained close ties with political parties such as the BNP and JIB, even during the peak of Hasina's rule.». . . . — He said he was.

But as for the election results, China has no clear favorites, Regwan said.

«Whoever gets the majority, he will give him full support and, in parallel, will support interaction with other major political parties. Beijing prefers inclusive rather than exclusive engagement with all political players in Bangladesh». . . . — He said he was.

«China’s main task will be to prevent any U.S. influence on the party that will win a majority in the elections and form a government.». . . . — Added Rezhvan.