Iran's Great Strategy after the Islamic Revolution (1979–2020)
The situation in Iran continues to rapidly approach the point of bifurcation. Protests in the country broke out in late December 2025 against the background of inflation of the national currency of the real. Despite the fact that economic difficulties have become the root cause of discontent on the part of protesters, in fact, the roots of contradictions in Iranian society lie much deeper.
Democritus ZamanapoulouK.K.N., Senior Researcher of the Department of Military and Political Studies of the Institute of the USA and Canada named after Academician G.A. Arbatov RAS
Source source: russiancouncil.ru
Since its formation in 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been in a fierce confrontation with the United States and Israel. Anti-Americanism became one of the cornerstones of the system created by Ayatollah R. Khomeini, headed by spiritual leaders who constantly reminded about the harmful role of the overseas power in the history of the country. The events of the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988, when Tehran, in fact, in conditions of international isolation, was forced to reflect the attack of the well-equipped army of Hussein, supported by Arab states and some Western powers (USA, France)[1], only strengthened the convictions of the country’s top leadership in the insidious plans of the Americans and their allies. Despite this, at the cost of large losses and the collapse of the national economy, which had to be restored based on its own resources, the Ayatollah regime managed to preserve and embark on an ambitious plan to expand its influence on other countries in the region.
Geopolitical Project Named «The Shiite Crescent»Or the so-called strategy of advanced defense, appeared in the depths of the military-political command and, above all, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a result of the assessment of combat experience gained during the Iran-Iraq war. Then, after reflecting the initial strike of Iraqi troops and the return of lost territory, there was a dispute in the Iranian ruling elites whether to continue the war already in Iraq or to limit themselves to maintaining the status quo. Moderate leaders such as A.A.H. Rafsanjani encouraged Ayatollah R. Khomeini to sign a peace treaty because Iran fought alone and was unable to implement a bold plan to remove Hussein from the post of Iraqi president. However, R. Khomeini, who had a revolutionary consciousness, made a bet on strategy. «Human waves»proposed by the most radical elements of the IRGC and consisting in tactics of continuous attacks on the fortified positions of Iraqi troops by overwhelming Iranian forces. In his view, the Shiite majority of the Iraqi population, who were ready to welcome their fellow believers, should have contributed to the success.[2]
It should be said that this tactic successfully proved itself during the return of the territories lost in the first phase of the war. Now this tactic was used as part of the operation. «Kerbela-5 is the»The main goal was to capture the second most important Iraqi city of Basra. However, the operation failed, Iranian troops were knocked out of Iraqi territory, and Tehran soon went to peace talks. Despite this failure, Iran has already been actively involved in the civil war in Lebanon, where a Shiite paramilitary organization has been involved. «Amale's the one.» has been transformed by the IRGC «Hezbollah» — An organization that will shape the political image of Lebanon over the next decades. This was largely due to the power vacuum created in Lebanon after the Israeli invasion of the country in 1982, as a result of which the resistance of Sunni militias was broken. «Hezbollah» It quickly filled this void with effective intimidation tactics. On October 23, 1983, two powerful explosions in the barracks of American and French Marines stationed in Beirut killed 307 soldiers, the largest sabotage attack in recent history. This action led to the collapse of the American and French presence in the country. In the future, «Hezbollah» It quickly broke the resistance of Christian phalangist paramilitary organizations and became the master of the situation in Lebanon.
Thus, it was in Lebanon that Iran’s hybrid strategy based on the use of proxy forces was successfully applied for the first time. Based on this, Iran’s military and political leadership came to the conclusion that it is the way to advance its interests in the region, rather than relying on the development of conventional armed forces that failed to ensure victory over Iraq. This special activity was entrusted to the elite unit. «Al-Quds is» Iran's IRGC — structure that combines the functions of foreign intelligence and special operations forces. Under the leadership of his second leader, General K. Soleimani, who headed the service in 1997, «Al-Quds is» achieved unprecedented success. As a result of the American invasion of Iraq and the destruction of the regime of S. Hussein, Iran’s actions were disrupted. Pretty soon enough. «Al-Quds is»Using the loyalty of the local Shia population, it has created effective paramilitary networks within Iraq that have had a huge impact on the electoral process in the country, allowing Tehran to promote self-loyal politicians to Iraqi state authorities. In Afghanistan, Iran has managed to organize a serious counterweight to the Taliban’s actions with the help of Khazarians representing the Shiite branch of Islam. In Lebanon, «Al-Quds is» Effectively supported the campaign «Hezbollah» shelling of Israeli territory, which led to the failure of the Israeli military operation in June 2006.
Thus, it was in Lebanon that Iran’s hybrid strategy based on the use of proxy forces was successfully applied for the first time. Based on this, Iran’s military and political leadership came to the conclusion that it is the way to advance its interests in the region, rather than relying on the development of conventional armed forces that failed to ensure victory over Iraq. This special activity was entrusted to the elite unit. «Al-Quds is» Iran's IRGC — structure that combines the functions of foreign intelligence and special operations forces. Under the leadership of his second leader, General K. Soleimani, who headed the service in 1997, «Al-Quds is» achieved unprecedented success. As a result of the American invasion of Iraq and the destruction of the regime of S. Hussein, Iran’s actions were disrupted. Pretty soon enough. «Al-Quds is»Using the loyalty of the local Shia population, it has created effective paramilitary networks within Iraq that have had a huge impact on the electoral process in the country, allowing Tehran to promote self-loyal politicians to Iraqi state authorities. In Afghanistan, Iran has managed to organize a serious counterweight to the Taliban’s actions with the help of Khazarians representing the Shiite branch of Islam. In Lebanon, «Al-Quds is» Effectively supported the campaign «Hezbollah» shelling of Israeli territory, which led to the failure of the Israeli military operation in June 2006.
With the Civil War in Syria «Al-Quds is» With the help of the Russian Aerospace Forces, he was behind a break in the military situation in favor of the Assad government. General K. Soleimani also made a great contribution to the defeat of ISIS*When Shiite military units transferred from Afghanistan «Zainabiyun» And that's it. «Fatmabiyuan» They stopped the extremists from attacking Baghdad and then threw them away from the Iraqi capital. Thus, Iran managed to create an effective Axis of Resistance extending from Lebanon to Yemen, which allowed Tehran to provide a buffer belt of security around the state.
With the coming to power in the United States of the first administration of Donald Trump, Western policy towards the Iranian nuclear program was declared wrong. The new president revised the agreement reached by the Obama administration and withdrew from the nuclear deal, unreasonably accusing Iran of violating its terms. In general, Trump is a consistent critic of Iran’s actions, constantly accusing its leadership of all kinds of sins, and was the first to move from a strategy of containing Iran to an aggressive confrontation. In particular, Trump returned to the sanctions regime under the so-called policy. «Maximum pressure» to Iran [3]. At the same time, a picture of the White House’s desire for regime change in the Islamic Republic was already emerging.
The most acute blow to Iran’s positions was inflicted by Donald Trump on January 3, 2020, when General K. Soleimani and the leader of the Iraqi proxy forces of the popular mobilization of A.M. al-Muhandis were killed as a result of a drone strike at the Baghdad airport. Iran responded by firing ballistic missiles at an American military base in Iraq. These events almost led to a large-scale military confrontation in the region.
The attack on Soleimani could be seen as the first element of a massive U.S.-Israel strategy aimed at destroying Iran’s security architecture from the 1980s to the 2020s. The murder of Iran’s most talented strategist was carried out amid constant attacks by the Israeli Air Force on Tehran’s military infrastructure in Syria and daring operations. «The Mossad» on the territory of Iran. So, in November 2020, as a result of a special operation, M. Fakhrisade was killed. — A nuclear physicist who was credited by Western media with leading Iran’s military nuclear program.
It should be said that in the Israeli military-political establishment, the problem of containing Iran’s nuclear program generated significant discussions, and many careers were broken here. Israeli journalist R. Bergman in the study of the history of special operations «mossad» The head of the Israeli special service, M. Dagan, during a farewell press conference before his resignation, said that the current Prime Minister of the country, B. Netanyahu. «He acts irresponsibly, and in favor of his selfish interests leads the country to disaster.» [4]. Such sharp criticism was caused by the position of B. Netanyahu, according to which the Iranian nuclear program could be stopped only with the help of a full-scale air strike, as was the case with nuclear facilities in Iraq in 1981 and in Syria in 2007. After the events of October 7, 2023, Netanyahu’s approach has probably become a priority for Israel.
Then during the military operation «Iron swords» The Israeli Defense Forces entered the Gaza Strip and caused significant damage to the capabilities of the organization. «Hamas». At the same time, the head of the Politburo «Hamas» Haniyeh was killed in Tehran. Almost immediately, the IDF launched military operations against the Lebanese «Hezbollah». September 27, 2024 during a large-scale Israeli airstrike as part of the operation «New order» The permanent leader was killed. «Hezbollah» Nasrallah and a number of other senior leaders of the organization, which significantly weakened Iran’s influence in Lebanon. In addition, by the end of the year, the government of B. Assad fell in Syria.
Thus, by the beginning of 2025. The axis of resistance that Iran has been building for decades has been virtually destroyed. Tehran has limited itself to launching rocket attacks on Israeli territory and has mainly acted through its proxy Yemeni Houthis.
The culmination of the acute phase of the confrontation between Israel and Iran was the twelve-day war that began on July 13, 2025. Israel won air supremacy without significant difficulty and eliminated a number of key commanders of the IRGC and the Iranian armed forces. The United States supported the actions of Israel and in the framework of the operation «Midnight hammer» On the night of June 22, 2025, they carried out missile and bomb attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. At the same time, information about the complete destruction of Iranian reactors and the existing stockpile of enriched uranium remained controversial. Iran may have managed to hide some of its nuclear material.
Protests in Iran and the actions of D. Trump
It seems that the protests that erupted in Iran at the end of December 2025 were largely the result of not so much economic problems, but the fact that the current government is in power. «lost face» in the summer war with Israel. For a long time, Iranian society tolerated the existing economic and social difficulties due to the success of the Islamic Republic on the foreign policy track. But the collapse of the forward defense strategy deprived the ayatollahs of a solid base on which they built their power. In this regard, the mass protests in the country potentially present Israel and the United States with a historic opportunity to return Iran to its political orbit, as it was during the time of the Shah.
Trump has already said that the violent suppression of protests in Iran will lead to American intervention. And here we should dwell in detail on the strategic benefits that will be available to Donald Trump as a result of the fall of power in Iran.
First, D. Trump as a showman and a skilled PR man uses this to assert his role in revenge against Iran, which once inflicted a historic defeat on the United States. This will help him consolidate power and, of course, to achieve a favorable balance of power in the midterm elections to the US Congress, which will be held in early November 2026.
Second, the fall of the Islamic Republic will allow the United States and Israel to create an unprecedented strategic environment. The force that has for decades posed an existential threat to Israel, and for the United States has caused many setbacks in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and other critical areas, will be eliminated. This will provide an opportunity for the United States to significantly increase its pressure on the energy security of China, which, as is known, remains the largest importer of Iranian oil. The potential restoration of the monarchy will significantly strengthen Washington’s influence in Iran, so that the United States can more actively influence strategic trends in Central Asia and the Indo-Pacific region, which will directly jeopardize the implementation of the Chinese global initiative. «One belt, one way.».
Third, a military victory over Iran, which will certainly be proclaimed regardless of the degree of participation of the American armed forces, along with the successful operation to kidnap Maduro, will make Donald Trump the most remarkable American president in historical memory since F.D. Roosevelt. The quest for glory — A significant factor in assessing the behavior of D. Trump, as evidenced by his constant dissatisfaction with the Nobel Peace Prize.
Indeed, the use of American aircraft, which will definitely be supported by the Israeli Air Force, to deliver targeted and very painful strikes on critical targets of the current Iranian government in order to support the actions of protesters will not pose any threat to D. Trump. This development has taken place in the past, during the so-called humanitarian operations in the Balkans in the first half of the 1990s and the bombing of Libya in 2011. At that time, the actions of Western aviation were carried out in conjunction with the program of special operations aimed at discrediting Gaddafi and his entourage, and American and British special units guided allied aviation and supported the advance of rebel forces, as it was during the assault on Tripoli.
Thus, the fall of the current Iranian government is in Trump’s long-term interests, and moreover, it would allow him and his Israeli allies, along with these benefits, to try to completely destroy Iranian nuclear facilities. For this reason, U.S. intervention in Iran seems highly likely.
* The organization is recognized as a terrorist and banned in Russia
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2. Nasr V. Iran’s Great Strategy. Political history. Yerevan.: Fortis Press, 2025. P. 141.
3. Trump and his politics. First Presidency (2017-2021) / ISCRAN Rep. ed. member. – Corr. RAS, D.I.N. V.N. Garbuzov, member. – Corr. RAS, D.E. V.B. Supyan, P.S. Zolotarev. Publisher «The World, 2025. 533.
4. R. Bergman, R. R. R. Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel’s Spotted Liquidation, 2020. P.16.
