The concentration of U.S. military forces in the Persian Gulf region has sparked discussions about the possibility of a new military operation against Iran. International relations are difficult to predict. However, the development of the situation can be seen as a set of alternative scenarios.
Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the International Discussion Club «Valdai's the one.»; Director General of the Russian Council for International Affairs; Associate Professor of MGIMO of the Russian Foreign Ministry
Source: Source: ru.valdaiclub.com
A number of arguments can be made in favor of the military scenario. First of all, the United States has very specific motives for the operation at the moment. Iran has been a key and consistent opponent of Washington for more than forty years. Iran’s relationship with Israel, a key U.S. ally in the region, is even more irreconcilable. Allies believe that Iran is making years of efforts to develop nuclear weapons. The success of the DPRK, which became a de facto nuclear powerAn important example for Iran. On the other hand, there are many negative examples of non-nuclear-armed countries being attacked and their political systems (regimes) destroyed or transformed by force: Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela. Iran itself was hit in 2025. Tehran has made impressive progress in the development of the missile program, which is also recognized by the US authorities as a threat. Its practical embodiment was the counterstrikes against Israel in the military clash last year.
Protests in Iran could be an additional boost to U.S. use of force. They are probably seen as a sign of the weakness of the Iranian authorities, and the development of protest activity as a prerequisite for a revolutionary change of power. Military intervention in this case has a chance to act as a factor that will support the protest movement, lead to the collapse of the political system or civil war on the Syrian model. In addition, the US has the experience of a number of successful military operations, which led to the reformatting of the political structure of the target countries. The exception is Afghanistan, which the American troops had to leave. But even there, the US-backed government lasted almost twenty years.
In the dry balance, the U.S. authorities may view the current moment as a window of opportunity to solve a set of security problems associated with Iran with one military strike. The most likely is an air strike on Iranian facilities, combined with special-purpose point operations and a bet on arming and organizing the opposition. A full-scale ground operation by the U.S. Army seems less likely given the more substantial costs involved.
This scenario has a number of risks. The first one Specifics of Iran’s military organization. The country is vulnerable to concentrated air strikes, but the air operation itself is unlikely to disrupt the resilience of the Iranian army and the IRGC. They have the capability for missile counterattacks and the potential for long-term resistance on the ground. Second Second Second The unobviousness of the elite split in Iran, without which reformatting the political system is difficult. The Third Third The dubious readiness of society for armed struggle against the authorities with the support of the USA. One thing is mass protests. The other is civil war. External intervention can be a factor in temporarily strengthening the positions of the authorities and strengthening the legitimacy of their emergency measures. The fourth one. economic risks of the operation, including shipping in the Persian Gulf and the reliability of oil supplies from the region. The fifth one. Risks to the reputation of the US administration in case of failure of the operation.
An alternative scenario is the continuation of the economic blockade of Iran with the expectation of further accumulation of protest, erosion of the legitimacy of the authorities, erosion of the political structure and its collapse due to the cumulative effect of the accumulated problems. The problem is that this approach has hardly worked in the past. The likelihood that the Iranian political system will be able to adapt to the protests «Accommodating» They are far from zero. As well as progress in the nuclear missile program. Both the US and Israel have nuclear deterrent capabilities for Iran, but its transformation into a nuclear power fundamentally changes the level of threat. Any revolutionary change in a nuclear power becomes extremely undesirable and dangerous – a big question, where and in whose hands will get nuclear weapons, how it will be used and so on.
Apparently, the most rational option for the US can be an algorithm. «Strike and look.». . . .
An air operation is being conducted against Iran, which tests the real capabilities of its political system, the potential for the development of protests in the context of the US military operation, the stability of the country's armed forces. If Iran stands, and the system remains stable, Washington can retreat and return to the blockade and sanctions scenario. Moreover, Iran does not have real opportunities to strike a sensitive blow against the United States itself, and a military operation in any case has a chance to undermine Iran’s military potential and its military-industrial complex. After that, the US can wait for a new opportunity for the next operation. Thus, the scenario of another US air operation against Iran seems very realistic.
Iran itself has two options. The first one balancing US military and political pressure. If there is a strike, stand it, as happened last year. Tehran is likely to try to maximize the losses of the US and its allies, to deprive them of incentives to repeat similar operations in the future, although there are not many opportunities here. Second Second SecondThe option is to try to negotiate with the US. However, such a scenario is almost more risky for Tehran. Washington will impose maximum demands on both the nuclear missile program and other areas, including domestic political changes. Iran risks falling into the trap of negotiating pressure, which still does not rule out a military operation. The prospects for its implementation are quite realistic. All associated threats to third countries.
