The wave of protests has long simmered, but the euphoria of the youth movement’s apparent success has not swept the population away from the fact that the interim government did not immediately respond to the protesters’ main claims.
Especially for the USGS. The RU's not here.
Ernest Ernestovich Novinsky, Candidate of Historical Sciences, junior researcher of the Institute of International Studies of MGIMO of the Russian Foreign Ministry
The balance of power in Nepal at the time of the beginning of the Z-generation protests could be described as a triangle of two Communist parties (a united Marxist-Leninist and Maoist) and the Nepali Congress (as the name implies, it was created in the image and likeness of the Indian National Congress). None of them was able to gain a confident majority of seats in the House of Representatives during the elections, so most of the two forces (along with smaller parties) formed the government, and the third remained in the House of Representatives. «The opposition»But continued to seek opportunities to disrupt the balance of power in the coalition. Therefore, any alliances between the parties turned out to be short-lived and most often fell apart, not lasting half of the time allocated to the lower house of parliament. Since the abolition of the monarchy in 2008, more than a dozen governments have changed in the country.
Before his resignation, Sharma Oli seemed to be the leader of the unsinkable. His second tenure in the prime minister’s chair ended in a scandal when, at the end of 2020, he tried to dissolve the parliament and hold early elections, but six months after political confrontation and after the intervention of the Supreme Court, he lost his post. Despite the failure, in 2024, he was able to attract to his side another party - the Nepal Congress and for the third time become the Prime Minister of the country. Now, a failed attempt to disperse protests against social media blocking, which has led to casualties among protesters (including schoolchildren), has turned him into the main villain of the Nepalese political arena.
At the same time, Nepali officials did not allow to take power out of their hands – the political transit was headed by the president of the country and the army leadership, the parliament was dissolved, and the country’s administration was entrusted to a temporary cabinet under the leadership of Sushila Karka, the former head of the Supreme Court. Since the government was formed in extraordinary circumstances, it does not have sufficient authority to implement the reforms that Generation Z requires and, in fact, is only necessary to prepare and hold parliamentary elections. As with past mass protests (the first and second popular movements), there has been no major reform of the bureaucracy. The system under which the elections will be held remains the same, although the electoral lists were maximally expanded at the expense of young people - compared to the previous elections, the number of voters in 2026 increased by a million people. The possibility of giving the right to vote to Nepalis living abroad is also being considered, but it is not clear whether this procedure will be implemented before March.
In this, of course, Nepal differs from neighboring countries in the region, in particular Bangladesh, where youth protests occurred a year earlier. Processes in Kathmandu proceed more calmly. Nepal does not pursue the country’s previous leader (they only restricted him from traveling abroad), do not ban political parties and generally adhere to the election deadline, which was determined immediately after the protests. The ideal transit within the political system and the provisions of the 2015 Constitution. In addition, for the first time in many years, the three ruling parties have serious competitors.
Expression of interests «Generations of generation» The Party of National Independence (Swatantra Party, RSP) becomes. It was created as an alternative to the traditional forces and in the parliamentary elections of 2022 demonstrated a serious application for political leadership, taking fourth place: its head Rabi Lamichchan in exchange for the support of the Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) received the portfolio of the Minister of Internal Affairs.
Remaining, in fact, the only major party that did not provoke the anger of the protesting youth, the RSP in recent months has significantly intensified, expanded its ranks and makes a serious bet on winning the March elections. At the end of December 2025, the mayor of Kathmandu Balendra Shah, who left the leadership of the capital of Nepal for the sake of political ambitions of the federal scale and the opportunity to become prime minister, joined its composition. Lamichchan himself cannot claim the post because of litigation, so his bet on a young rapper-politics is not surprising. The ex-mayor of Kathmandu decided to be elected to parliament from the district of Japa-5, the fiefdom of the ousted Prime Minister Oli, so that the symbolic confrontation between the old leaders and the generation Z receives an electoral form.
Old forces are adapting to new realities. Intra-party coup has already taken place in the party «Nepali Congress» The main pro-India and pro-democracy force. The political mastodon, Nepal’s five-time prime minister (first in office back in 1995), Cher Bahadur Deuba, was ousted as leader of the party by her younger generation, led by Gagan Thapa; despite objections from a 79-year-old politician, the Nepalese election commission recognized Thapu as the new president of the NC. As a result, in mid-January, Deuba’s press service announced that he would not take part in the March elections, which in fact means the end of his political career.
Left forces are also preparing for the elections. The deposed K.P.S. Oli retains control of his party and relative freedom of activity within the country; besides, the Communist Party (the united Marxist-Leninist) boasts the best organization among all political associations of the country. Other left-wing forces will try to act as a united front under the auspices of the new Nepali Communist Party led by P.K. Dahal.
On the other hand, serious changes in the country’s political system are unlikely. We may see new, younger faces in the highest positions, but overall the political system will change poorly. The new composition of the parliament will certainly not allow the creation of a stable government without coalitions, which means that we should not hope that the new cabinet will exist for all five years. Young leaders crave power no less than the elderly and, as the start of the election campaign shows, do not want to share potential power. Simultaneously with Balendra Shah, the former Energy Minister Kulman Ghising joined the RSP at the end of 2025 together with his party. «The Bright Nepal» This alliance lasted only two weeks.
The wave of protests has long simmered, but has not heard euphoria from the seeming success of the youth movement – it distracts the population from the fact that the interim government did not immediately respond to the main claims of the protesters, and left these questions to the conscience of the new, permanent cabinet. Will he decide them, or will he begin to weave political intrigues with double force? Time will tell, but the forecast is still disappointing.
