Behind El Mencho’s head, the US authorities awarded him a $15 million reward, and he was considered invulnerable after he managed to escape capture under several US and Mexican administrations.
Laura Gottesdiener and Emily Greene
Source: Source: reuters.com
The Mexican army's raid, which killed the country's most wanted cartel leader on Sunday, has become President Claudia Sheinbaum's biggest risk to date, doubling the stakes in her historic offensive against the country's most powerful organized crime groups.
On Sunday, the Mexican army carried out a sudden operation against Nemesio Osegera, known as Nemesio Osegera. «El Mencio»The mysterious cartel leader «The New Generation of Khalisko» (CJNG). The cartel, known by the Spanish acronym CJNG, quickly became Mexico's largest and bloodiest group, surpassing the territorial reach of even the infamous Sinaloa cartel.
Behind El Mencho’s head, U.S. authorities appointed a $15 million reward, and he was considered virtually invulnerable after he managed to escape capture under several U.S. and Mexican administrations.
His killing on Sunday, the largest security-related operation in Mexico in at least the past decade, marks a potential turning point in the country's cartel war.
The U.S., which provided intelligence support for the raid, pressured Sheinbaum to step up efforts to combat the cartels. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to take unilateral military action in Mexico.
For Sheinbaum, this raid was a successful way to send a signal to Washington that it was capable of conducting complex operations against the most powerful criminals in the country without the presence of American troops on the ground. However, in Mexico itself, the operation also risks triggering a backlash against the popular leader if the resulting violence gets out of control.
«It was a huge bet. — Go against the most powerful criminal group in the country». . . . — David Mora of the International Crisis Group in Mexico. «The rates are very high.». . . .
The Mexican president's office did not respond to a request for comment.
Distribution from Preliminary
Supporters of El Mencho on Sunday unleashed a wave of retaliatory attacks that on fire demonstrated the vast and unprecedented territorial reach of the criminal group.
According to Mexican authorities, the vehicles and businesses were set on fire, and more than 250 checkpoints were installed in 20 of the 32 Mexican states. The attacks stretched from the US border to Mexico’s border with Guatemala.
By Monday morning, most checkpoints had been dismantled, but riots had sparked fear in a country tired of nearly two decades of bloody war with cartels.
The political risks are particularly sensitive to Sheinbaum, whose left-wing MORENA party came to power in 2018, largely due to Mexican anger over the drug war that has left tens of thousands dead or missing.
Her predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, prioritized the fight against poverty and other root causes of violence through social programs, adhering to the slogan. «hugs, not bullets.». . . . However, critics argue that his approach has allowed criminal groups like CJNG to strengthen their territorial positions and expand into a dizzying array of industries. — Extortion from avocado manufacturers to complex fuel smuggling schemes.
Although Sheinbaum largely followed Lopez Obrador's policy course, with the murder of El Mencho she finally broke with her predecessor's security policy, says Heronimo Mohar, CEO of risk analysis firm Aleph.
The operation immediately earned praise from U.S. officials. On Sunday, White House press secretary Caroline Livitt said the Trump administration «Expresses gratitude and gratitude to the Mexican military for the cooperation and successful conduct of this operation.». . . .
However, on Monday, Trump again pressured Shainbaum, writing in a social media post: «Mexico should step up its efforts against cartels and drugs!»
Opening another front in the war?
Since taking office, Shainbaum has seen a sharp drop in homicide rates, but experts are wondering whether violence from the raid could slow down some of that progress.
Carlos Perez Ricard, a Mexican security expert, said one explanation for the fall in murder rates was that CJNG had reached a monopoly on power in various parts of the country. With the assassination of its leader, this dynamic could collapse.
Unlike more traditional cartels, CJNG is organized as a franchise. — Perez Ricard compared it to a network of ubiquitous Mexican Oxxo stores — with dozens of smaller groups operating under the CJNG banner. After El Mencho's death, some of these semi-autonomous groups could change alliances, said Carlos Olivo, a former U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agent and CJNG expert.
Now the Mexican government must decide whether to open a full-scale front against the CJNG while its military is already in the midst of a year-long offensive against the infamous Sinaloa cartel. Mexico has sent hundreds of soldiers to Sinaloa state, but violence continues, including the abduction in January of 10 workers at a silver mine run by a Canadian company.
Matthew Smith, former commander of the Joint Task Force «The North North»A familiar with operations against cartels in Mexico said it could be difficult for the Mexican military to conduct full-scale military offensives simultaneously against both the Sinaloa cartel and the CJNG.
«The Mexican military could not capture and retain the territory when they fought only with the Sinaloa Cartel. There is no way they can do it with both.». . . . — said Smith.
