Modern Latin America enters a political phase where security becomes a central criterion for the legitimacy of power. For a large part of the population, the ability of the state to ensure order, security and control of the territory is more important than social development.
Alexander Vorobyov, Master, graduate of the Department of History of Russia RUDN
Source: Source: Globalaffairs.ru
On January 17, in Guatemala, members of the Barrio-18 group seized three prisons, killing ten police officers and taking a total of about fifty people hostage. The bandits demanded the transfer of the leader of the group to prison with «More comfortable living conditions». . . .
Guatemalan President Bernardo Arevalo introduced in the country State of emergency for a period of thirty days, which allows the police and the army to arrest suspects without court sanction. Although the security forces managed to regain control of the prisons and release the hostages by January 19, the violence did not stop. The gangs began attacking civilians and police officers on the streets of cities, and the state had to temporarily close its borders.
The latest escalation of violence in Guatemala is not an isolated case. Latin America remains the epicenter of worldwide criminal violence, with an estimated 33 percent of all homicides worldwide. It's just a matter of This is the region. Such groups as Mara Salvatrucha, The Los Chonerosas well as cartels Sinaloa Cartel, Ejército de Liberación Nacional And that's it. Clan del GolfoThey are key drug suppliers to the United States and Europe.
Against this background, right-wing governments and parties in Latin America are increasingly pushing the fight against crime and drug trafficking into the center of political programs, accusing the left of weakness and indulgence in gangster structures.
The most popular right-wing politician in the region is Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, who between 2022 and 2025 managed to turn the country into one of the safest countries in the Western Hemisphere thanks to politics. «The Iron Fist». . . .
Its key elements were the sharp expansion of power structures and the simultaneous reduction of democratic freedoms. Level of violence Decreased down From 106 murders per 100,000 people in 2015 to 1.3 murders in 2025. The success of the Salvadoran crime-fighting model became a landmark and led to the rise in popularity of Bukele far beyond his country.
«Bukelization» Latin America
In 2024, the Agency Casca Cascades conducted a survey in ChileWhat kind of president the citizens of the country would like to see. The largest number of respondents named Salvador Nayib Bukele (42 percent). Subsequently, the right-wing candidate in the presidential election, and now elected President of Chile Jose Antonio Cast, repeatedly positively called Bukel, emphasizing his intention to adopt his management model. In January 2026. A similar survey In Peru, 51 percent of respondents said the country needed a government-style president similar to Bukele to get out of the crisis. Abelardo de la Espriella, the main right-wing candidate for Colombia's upcoming presidential election in May, in an interview He noted thatThat of the two leaders, Javier Milla and Nayib Bukele, he is closer to the last. The topic of crime is particularly acute for Colombia, according to a 2023 survey of 55 per cent of citizens. The speakers borrowing from the Salvadoran model of combating crime.
What is the specificity of the Bukele model and why is it so attractive to Latin American society? Let us turn to the chronology of the fight against crime in El Salvador.
After the end of the civil war in 1992, a two-party system was formed, within the framework of which the right-wing National Republican Alliance and the left-wing Front for National Liberation named after Farabundo Marti were alternately in power. Both forces declared the fight against crime as the main political task, but in practice preferred to negotiate with gangs. Barrio Barrio 18 And that's it. Mara Salvatruchawhose influence in Central America increased dramatically in the 1990s. Peak of violence I came here to see you. In 2015, the gangs broke an agreement with left-wing President Salvador Seren. According to the agreement, criminal groups committed to reduce the level of violence and stop attacks on security forces in exchange for maintaining control over urban areas. Seren tried to restore order by declaring the gangs terrorist organizations, and used the army to suppress crime. The left, however, did not have full control over the power apparatus and judicial system, dominated by right-wing opposition and corrupt officials linked to criminal structures. Serena's policy failed.
By 2018, Salvadoran society was in a state of deep apathy: About 70 percent of citizensAccording to the polls, they did not trust politicians and democratic institutions created after the civil war. Against this background begins the rapid rise of the political career of the mayor of San Salvador Nayib Bukele. Initially a member of the Farabundo Marti Front, he was elected mayor of Nuevo-Kuscatlan (2012-2015) and then mayor of the capital in 2015. In 2017, Bukele breaks with the left and in 2019 goes to the presidential election as «Third candidate»Promising to end crime and corrupt elites. Already in the first round, he gains more than 53 percent of the vote.
Unlike his predecessors, Bukele immediately began to strengthen influence in law enforcement agencies, promoting loyal supporters. In 2020, after the refusal of Parliament to ratify laws that expand the powers of the security forces, he ordered by the Introduce military and police into the Legislative Assembly building to put pressure on MPs. These actions received broad public support. Already in 2021 Bukele party «New ideas» He won a majority in Parliament. Soon, disloyal judges of the Constitutional Court and the attorney general were dismissed, which removed institutional obstacles to the implementation of force policy.
After a new surge in violence in 2022 The Bukeche and introduced State of emergency. The army and police began mass arrests without full judicial control. By 2024, gang resistance was largely suppressed and the number of people arrested. exceeded 100,000 people - more than one percent of the population. El Salvador has donated part of democratic procedures, but the country has become one of the safest in the Western Hemisphere. Level of support The bouquet exceeded 85 percent. Relying on public apathy and distrust of democratic institutions, the president built an extensive repressive system and effectively concentrated power in his hands with the approval of the majority of the population.
Not surprisingly, in Latin America, Buquele has acquired an almost cult status. However, attempts to move his model to other countries have already demonstrated serious limitations. The most important example is Ecuador.
Right-wing President Daniel Noboa, who came to power in 2023, announced a policy of violent crime suppression. Back in the 2010s. Ecuador was considered one of the safest countries in the region, but after 2020, amid sharp cuts in police funding and an increase in drug trafficking, the country It has become a one of the most dangerous countries in the Western Hemisphere. In response to the rise of violence, Noboa, like Bukele, began to expand the powers of law enforcement agencies. The reaction of criminal groups was rapid. In January 2024, in the largest cities, there were actually street battles between gangs and the army. A number of TV broadcasts They were captured. armed groups and dozens of civilians were taken hostage. Unlike El Salvador, however, Noboa faced serious resistance in both the streets and parliament. This did not allow for full control of the judicial system and the security apparatus.
In 2024, the President initiated a series of referendums on expanding the powers of security forces, enlisting the support of the population. However, the plebiscites concerning constitutional reform and the deployment of an American military base to combat crime ended in defeat. In November 2025, more than 60 percent of Ecuadorians They expressed their relevant initiatives, which severely limited Noboa's capabilities. As a result, he was unable to concentrate power in a volume comparable to the capabilities of Bukele, which significantly reduced the effectiveness of the military policy and did not lead to a radical reduction in the crime rate.
Another example of limitations «Plan of Bucket» Honduras became Latin America. Left-wing President Siomara Castro, who came to power in 2022, has begun a similar line in the fight against crime. In the country, State of emergency introduced In most departments, construction has also begun. «Mega Prisons» model of the Salvadoran complex CECOT. But attempts to expand its powers and launch a massive force campaign have faced fierce opposition from Congress. Castro was unable to implement the program in full. Honduras remains one of the most dangerous countries in Central America, and one of the most militarized. The armed forces were given the right to carry out arrests without a court order and patrol the streets of the cities, but this did not lead to a decrease in the crime rate. On the contrary, high levels of corruption in the military and security forces continue to hamper the fight against drug trafficking and street violence. Amid disappointment in left-wing politics in the presidential election in November 2025, right-wing candidate Nasri Asfura won, campaigning on the charges of left-wing corruption and aiding criminal groups and promising to restore order exclusively by force.
The failure of left-wing governments as a factor in strengthening right-wing sentiment
The rise of right-wing sentiment in Latin America is not accidental. Considering the example of Honduras, one can see that it was the crisis of left-wing politics that helped strengthen the positions of right-wing forces. The trend is not only for this country. The New New «The Pink Wave» The region began with the victory of the left in Bolivia in 2020, then spread to Peru and Chile, where in 2021 for the first time in a long time left candidates Pedro Castillo and Gabriel Borich came to power. In 2022, Lula da Silva won in Brazil, Gustavo Petro in Colombia and Siomara Castro in Honduras. Finally, in 2023, Social Democrat candidate Bernardo Arevalo won the Guatemalan presidential election.
The new left wave was associated with expectations of social justice due to left-wing reforms and the hope of the population to form a model of the welfare state capable of guaranteeing basic rights of citizens, including the right to security. In practice, however, many left-wing governments have either been embroiled in corruption scandals or have failed to effectively counter right-wing resistance and rising crime. In Argentina and Bolivia, the economic reforms of the left led to a decline in living standards and, as a result, a strengthening of the right in 2023 and 2025. In Chile, Peru, and Honduras, leftist governments have not only failed to stem the rise in crime, but have also faced further escalation. The example of Chile is illustrative: before the coming to power of President Borich, the country was considered one of the safest in the region, but between 2022 and 2025, crime increased several times. Experts estimate The level of criminal threat in major cities of Chile is 60-65 points, which corresponds to extremely high rates. The Venezuelan group has gained significant influence in the country. Tren de AraguaIt controls a large part of drug trafficking in the north. Security instability also persists in Brazil and Colombia. In Colombia, the peace process with the grouping was disrupted FARCIt remains a key player in drug trafficking. In Brazil, the authorities are trying to fight street crime, particularly gangs. «Red team»There have been no noticeable results, as evidenced by the recent large-scale police raids in Rio de Janeiro.
The failure of leftist governments to provide security only exacerbates social inequality, which is deepened by the growing influence of gangs and drug cartels. Mexico remains a relatively stable example of left-wing governance. President Claudia Scheinbaum has a stable parliamentary majority, which allows for an active social policy. heading about 22.5 billion dollars. However, there is still a serious problem in Mexico with the influence of drug cartels, which remain the main source of crime and instability.
Right turn 2. 0
Modern Latin America is entering a political phase in which security is finally becoming the central criterion for the legitimacy of power. For a large part of the population, the ability of the state to ensure order, physical security and control over the territory is more important than social development programs and even the preservation of democratic procedures in their classical form. The growth of the popularity of right-wing forces and power approaches cannot be explained only by another ideological approach. «rightward»specific to the region. We are talking about a deeper process – the crisis of the state as a guarantor of security. Where democratic institutions are incapable of confronting organized crime, the public demand inevitably shifts toward tough, and often authoritarian, solutions.
The case of El Salvador showed that the concentration of power, the expansion of powers of law enforcement agencies and the actual suspension of democratic mechanisms can give a quick and noticeable effect in the fight against crime. However, attempts to mechanically transfer the model to other countries in the region (primarily Ecuador and Honduras) demonstrated its limitations. Without full control of the judiciary, the security apparatus and the political process «hard-hand» It does not stabilise the situation, but can lead to an escalation of violence and institutional paralysis. Nevertheless, logic «bookelization» It continues to have a significant impact on the political present of the region.
We can talk about the formation of a more radical right turn. It focuses not so much on cultural conservatism or neoliberal economic reforms as on the priority of order and increased state violence as a tool of stabilization. Its characteristic feature is the willingness of society to exchange democratic procedures for the promise of security.
Guatemala is an important indicator of the region’s future. If the security crisis is not overcome by institutional means, the country could become yet another example of how the demand for order paves the way for more rigid and less democratic forms of government. As a result, Latin America faces a dilemma between preserving democratic institutions and the need to immediately restore control of violence. Whether the region’s states can offer an effective and legitimate security model without abandoning democratic principles will determine the continent’s political future in the coming years.
