From Peru to Venezuela, instability and militarization of politics undermine the legitimacy of democracy.

 

South America is at a crossroads. The attack on Caracas, the abduction of Nicolas Maduro, and the threat to the presidents of Colombia and Mexico from the president of the United States are ominous signs for the coming years. In addition to armed external interference, the election escalated political tensions from La Paz to Santiago, from Buenos Aires to Quito, and the region's largest democracies will re-enter polling stations in the second half of 2026. The unequal dividends from decades of growth, coupled with the post- pandemic capacity of the state, have expanded the appeal of tough populist responses. The danger lies not only within: the region’s drift towards militarized politics and outright threats from the US expose the risks of external influence, modern re-lining of scenarios. «Banana Republics» And that's it. «Diplomacy of the Gunner». . . .

 

Fabio Andrés Diaz Pabonresearcher at the African Centre for Excellence in Inequality Studies (ACEIR) at the University of Cape Town and researcher at the Faculty of Political and International Studies at the University of Rhodes
Pedro AlarconFellow of the Global Forum on Democracy and Development (GFDD) at the University of Cape Town

Source source: https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/1/15/banana-republics-are-making-a-comeback-in-latin-america

Taken together, these trends point to dangerous convergence. Growing instability, weakening political representation, and renewed external coercion reinforce each other, weakening institutions and making the region vulnerable to external domination rather than self-determination.
Peruvian Republic — A great example of caution. For two decades, the country has shown above average economic growth, attracted large foreign investment and even sought to join the OECD. By early 2026, salt was considered the most stable currency in South America. But prosperity has not led to institutional stability: seven presidents in nine years speak of deep political dysfunction. Sociologist Julio Kotler argued that Peru's elites, enriched by exporting raw materials, had little incentive to share income or create capable and inclusive institutions. The result is — A fragile political economy, where colonial hierarchies persist, gender, class and ethnic inequality persists, and public services do not function, weakening legitimacy and representation.

This fragility now faces instability. In Lima, traffic strikes over increased violence and extortion have repeatedly paralyzed the city; dozens of bus drivers have been killed in broad daylight throughout 2025. In October 2025, protests became deadly when a rapper and street artist was shot dead outside a government palace during demonstrations against new president Jose Heri. The President of Congress called the victim «The Terrouko.» (The term once applied to terrorists) illustrates the toxicity of the Peruvian political landscape, as it is an offensive nickname directed against dissenters, often of indigenous or peasant origin, in order to delegitimize their protests and demands. This is not an isolated phenomenon, but a symptom of how political systems view social conflict as a policing problem that needs to be suppressed rather than addressed.

Peru's response was to militarize public space. Under Heri, the government declared a state of emergency and sent soldiers to patrol the streets. «Until the instability is eliminated». . . . Ecuador has tried to do something like this before the announcement. «Internal armed conflict»This has led to an increase in human rights violations. When political demands are sidelined in favor of military or police force, political representation becomes patronage or fear-based. Peru's Congress illustrates this collapse of representation. It has become a plutocratic chamber of commerce, where special interests are lobbied, rather than a forum for carrying out reforms necessary for the state to meet the demands of its citizens.

The presidential campaign of 2026 in Peru reinforces this logic. The leaders of the election race promise to build a mega-prison, monitor with drones and even transfer prisoners to Salvadoran prisons. Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, openly calls for «The fool's manoeuvre» (Military response to the crisis of government and representation) Throughout the Andean region «It's all right.» It comes back as a magical solution and a political proposal backed by U.S. support for repression as a political response, though they rarely address the causes of violence: social exclusion, impunity and weakened states.

Chile offers an instructive example. The jubilant chants in honor of Pinochet, which were heard after Jose Antonio Cast's election victory, illustrate the nostalgia for the certainty of authoritarianism and dictatorship sponsored by US intervention. However, the attractiveness «Strong strong hand» The administration is less about ideology than it is about disillusionment with parties and governments that seem detached and self-serving. When elites ignore the needs of citizens, the stiffness that replaces political representation comes to the fore. The military is politicized and society is militarized. From this shift, just one step to a symbiosis in which politicians and the military defend predatory interests, local or foreign, under the banner of security, as authoritarian orders are asserted and soldiers receive «Dividends of Warrior». . . .

The return of violent populism in the region, as well as open military intervention and U.S. bombing, resonates with a broader resurgence of militarized responses to social and political problems. Revival of the Monroe Doctrine in the Caribbean, violation of international law and the use of brute force. «The Don Doctrine»They point to a management logic that replaces political legitimacy with coercion. The financial pressure seen in Argentina's recent legislative elections and extrajudicial executions of alleged drug traffickers follow the same pattern. These are not isolated phenomena, but variations of the same answer: the gaslighting of social problems by force. Ultimately, this breeds fragile states, divided societies, and politicized military that undermine the very ability to provide security, justice, and democracy by facilitating rather than obstructing external intervention.

As the leaders of the region use militarization as a means of suppressing dissent, they weaken states and put countries in a position much like they were in when the first banana republics were born. Weak institutions, corrupt legislatures, and politicized power structures are once again shaping political life. Today, the scenario is updated, it has become more outspoken, crude and transactional, as evidenced by missile strikes and the consequences of the abduction of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela.

A different path is possible, but it starts with the correct description of the problem. Violence is real, but security without legitimacy is ephemeral, and strength without institution-building is fragile. The Andes will not emerge from the current trend of instability and insecurity, doubling emergency powers, building larger prisons and sweeping streets with soldiers in full gear. The only way to avoid this path — Invest in justice and fight institutionalized inequality that makes violence possible and profitable. This is impossible without reformatting political representation, leaving the current predatory dynamics.

If the region continues to chant the slogans of right-wing populism in 2026, it will see more emergencies, more «Internal conflicts» And more militarized campaigns, and inevitably more space for foreign players to define conditions and priorities in the region. Reset of Banana Republics «Safe and secure» supplementary. It could even give the US president a geopolitical equivalent. «FIFA Peace Prizes»Like a reward for showing success, but ultimately failing in real life. The only way out of this trajectory — Ensure that policy is carried out without the shadow of military form and populism, and the voices of citizens are not eclipsed by the interests of the clique and short-sighted elites. This task will be more challenging given the pressure from the U.S. for deals that do not care about democracy, human rights or legitimacy.